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Opportunity Knocks: Will Wawrinka or Berdych Seize It?

Jan 22nd 2014

Stanislas Wawrinka and Tomas Berdych have played in a combined 78 majors. The 2014 Australian Open marks Wawrinka’s 36th main draw appearance at a grand slam. The Swiss has failed to reach a final and will be playing in only his second semifinal, his first coming at the US Open last fall.

Tomas Berdych

For Berdych, this event is his 42nd main-draw appearance at a major. He reached his only final in 2010, when he took out Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic at Wimbledon before losing to Rafael Nadal in the final.

It goes without saying that this is an absolutely golden opportunity for both players. With the dominance of the Big Four, a chance to contest for a major title isn’t going to come around very often. In fact, since 2009, only six players outside of the Big Four have contested a major final.

While Berdych will certainly be relieved not to see Djokovic on the other side of the net, the Czech is still an underdog coming into Thursday’s semifinal. Wawrinka’s improbable yet not entirely unforeseen victory over Novak Djokovic demonstrated again that the Swiss star may be entering his prime at 28. It took five sets and over four hours of breathtaking ball-striking for Wawrinka to record his first win at a major against the three-time defending champion.

In his quarterfinal, Berdych fought past an extremely agitated David Ferrer in four sets. The Spaniard, who was out of sorts for most of the match, was beaten for power and consistency by Berdych, a promising sign for a Czech who is known for erratic patches of play.

Berdych has only dropped one set the entire tournament, while Wawrinka has dropped three, two of which were against Djokovic. From a physical perspective, Berdych definitely has the upper hand going into this collision. Wawrinka expended copious amounts of energy in his conquering of Djokovic and will need to ensure he restores his body before Thursday night. Even though Ferrer is known for driving his opponents into a physical wall, Berdych was fortunate that the match featured short sets and relatively abridged rallies.

Stanislas Wawrinka

But Wawrinka leads the head-to-head 8-5 and owns Berdych 4-1 on outdoor hard courts, including a victory in the fourth round of the US Open last fall. Wawrinka has also won their last three meetings, the most recent in the round-robin stage of the World Tour Finals last November.

If Wawrinka can replicate the quality of tennis he brought forth in the quarterfinals, Berdych will have his hands full. From the baseline, he is known for his flat, piercing ground strokes. Over the years, Berdych has hit his fair share of helpless opponents straight off the court. While Wawrinka didn’t necessarily hit Djokovic off the court, his execution from the back of the court rose to a level that allowed him to stay with Djokovic for a match that lasted over four hours. Thus, handling Berdych’s power from the baseline should be no problem for Wawrinka.

To complement their superb ground games, Berdych and Wawrinka can both throw down the hammer serving. Neither are the best returners, so second-serve points won may be the decisive stat in this match.

One pattern of play that Wawrinka will be attempting to utilize as frequently as possible is backhand-to-backhand rallies. With arguably the strongest one-handed backhand in tennis, Wawrinka will fancy his chances when he can target the Berdych backhand with his own.

It’ll be more important for Berdych to get ahead in the points and dictate the rallies than it will be for Wawrinka, for the effectiveness of Berdych’s groundstrokes are somewhat diminished when he is prodded from side-to-side. Against Djokovic, Wawrinka proved that he is fully capable of striking magnificent winners whether he is in a neutral position or on the run.

At the end of the day, Wawrinka should have too much game for Berdych to handle over five sets. The Swiss is playing intelligently, moving beautifully, firing on all cylinders, and most importantly is maintaining himself physically and mentally.

Prediction: Wawrinka in four sets