Our intrepid ATP columnist Nick Nemeroff offers his thoughts on the ATP Masters 1000 quarterfinals in Madrid on Friday.

Tomas Berdych vs. Rafael Nadal

It’s safe to say that Rafael Nadal has cost Tomas Berdych a few dollars over the last 10 years. Overall, Nadal has defeated Berdych on 17 occasions and hasn’t lost to the Czech No. 1 in their last 16 meetings. To put the duration of Nadal’s dominance over Berdych in perspective, the last time Berdych beat Nadal, the Madrid Open was an indoor hard-court event. Berdych has managed to win a total of one set against Nadal on clay, which took place in the first set that these two men contested back in 2005.

Nadal enters Madrid with many questions surrounding the level of his play. Thus far, the Spaniard has brushed aside any doubts, rolling through his first two matches against Juan Monaco and Jarkko Nieminen with the loss of just six games combined. Berdych had quite an interesting experience in Portugal last week. After reaching the final and winning the first set 6-0 over Carlos Berlocq, Berdych dropped the final two sets, losing the final stanza 6-1. Not letting last week’s letdown get the best of him, Berdych has recovered with two solid victories over Kevin Anderson and Grigor Dimitrov.

There’s an entire list of strategic schemes Berdych could employ in this match. Regardless of how he tries to beat Nadal, he’ll have to impose his game upon the Spaniard. There will be absolutely no room for passivity. Regularly obtaining the first strike will be crucial for Berdych. Over the years, many have attributed his struggles against Nadal to his state of mind. While this may be true, it’s also worth noting that Nadal has constantly exposed Berdych’s movement match after match. At 6’5”, the Czech is a terrific mover for his height but often finds himself a helpless victim of Nadal’s groundstrokes, which jerk him around the baseline. His chances of winning points are considerably reduced when Nadal creates a magnetic pull between Berdych and the doubles alleys.

The improbable victories that Ferrer and Almagro scored over Nadal in Monte Carlo and Barcelona victory should provide Berdych with a heightened sense of belief entering this quarterfinal. Will it be enough? It probably won’t be, but this may end up being one of the best chances Berdych will have to take down Nadal.

Prediction: Nadal in three sets

Roberto Bautista-Agut vs. Santiago Giraldo

Two of the hottest players in the ATP will square of for a coveted spot in the Madrid semifinals. Combined, Bautista-Agut and Giraldo have recorded eight top-20 wins in 2014. They never have faced each other, but their encounter promises to be a clash of two of the flattest ball strikers on the tour.

Giraldo, who gained entry into the Madrid Open as a qualifier, has already won five matches this week. Those include main-draw victories over Lleyton Hewitt, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, and Andy Murray. Bautista-Agut upset his fellow countrymen Tommy Robredo and Fernando Verdsaco in the opening two rounds before breezing through lucky loser Lukasz Kubot in the round of 16.

Bautista-Agut and Giraldo are both aberrations within the modern game. Integrating flat, linear stroke production, their styles of play align more with an old-school style of play as opposed to the spin-predicated modern game. In addition, one would think that their styles of play would be incompatible with clay, but Giraldo and Bautista-Agut have figured out how to adjust their games to compete at the highest level there. They’ve mainly adjusted by introducing an increased amount of margin into a higher quantity of their shots, meaning they are flattening out fewer shots on clay than any other surface. Maintaining consistency on clay is imperative, and both players recognize that playing on clay forces them to stay patient and pick their spots to attack carefully.

Ultimately, Giraldo possesses a greater capacity to transition between high-risk and low-risk tennis. Although he is more vulnerable to erratic play, he’s arrived at the ideal intersection between defense, offense, and neutrality this week in Madrid.

Prediction: Giraldo in three sets

Kei Nishikori vs. Feliciano Lopez

Nishikori may very well be the most in-form player on the planet at the moment. Discounting the semifinal walkover he gave to Novak Djokovic in Miami, the Japanese star has won 12 consecutive matches. The last time Nishikori lost a match was on March 10. Lopez came into Madrid having lost his last three matches in straight sets, but the Spaniard has rejuvenated himself this week with three-set victories over Federico Delbonis and Mikhail Youzhny. Lopez was awarded a quarterfinal spot after Stanislas Wawrinka’s conqueror, Dominic Thiem, withdrew from the event due to a stomach virus.

Nishikori and Lopez have split their previous four meetings with Lopez having won their only battle on clay in Barcelona in 2011. Nishikori won their most recent meeting last fall in Tokyo.

Most Spaniards find their greatest success on clay. Unfortunately for Feliciano Lopez, being Spanish doesn’t automatically translate to clay-court success. Lopez’s career ATP record on clay is 89-96, and he’ll have a very difficult time hurting Nishikori with his strongest shots. Lopez possesses a powerful, precise lefty serve, but Nishikori’s top-class returning prowess will make it difficult for Lopez to put himself in offensive positions off the serve alone. The Spaniard’s sliding serve out wide and topspin forehand cross-court should provide few problems for Nishikori, who also owns one of the best backhands out there.

Expect Nishikori to target the one-dimensional one-handed Lopez backhand and exploit the Spaniard’s weak lateral movement.

Prediction: Nishikori in two sets

David Ferrer vs. Ernests Gulbis

In what may be the most intriguing quarterfinal of the day, Ernests Gulbis will try to hit and serve his way through David Ferrer. Ferrer leads the head-to-head 2-0, having won their most recent meeting last fall in a Stockholm semifinal.

Ferrer comes into this match having put forth one of his best matches of this season by taking down John Isner in straight sets. Ferrer won 42 of 51 points on serve and broke Isner once in each set. Ferrer also returned Isner’s serve about as well as anyone ever has. Gulbis comes into this match having recorded three excellent victories over Jerzy Janowicz, Alexandr Dolgopolov, and Marin Cilic. If both players perform at the same level as they did in the round of 16, this should prove to be quite a fascinating battle.

One huge advantage that Gulbis will have in this match is his backhand. Ferrer loves to break down his opponents’ backhands with his inside-out forehand. But Gulbis possesses one of the highest quality backhands on tour and will be able to effectively neutralize Ferrer’s inside-out attacks. Speaking of neutralizing, Ferrer’s supreme return of serve will force Gulbis into more uncomfortable positions on his own serve than he is used to facing. Ferrer may want to go inside-in as opposed to inside-out with more frequency to test the eccentric, long-winded Gulbis forehand.

Ferrer’s grit and defense should see him through this match by forcing Gulbis to decrease his margins and enticing him into making a high quantity of unforced errors.

Prediction: Ferrer in two sets