Monte Carlo is not the first clay event of the season.  It is not even the first clay event of the spring.  But it is the first of three clay Masters that attracts the big guns, and as such, it is the first event many look to as a preview of what they might expect to see happen at Roland Garros.  Not surprisingly, the spotlight shines brightest on the members of the Big 4, who have come to Monte Carlo in the hopes of getting their clay campaign started off on the right foot. 

Of the three members there, Monte Carlo is arguably least important to Andy Murray – which is a good thing given that he has already made an early exit.  Expectations have always been lower for the Scot during this time of year, as until recently, clay has historically proven to easily be his worst surface.  Couple that with an elbow injury that kept him out of Miami and nearly out of this event, and his appearance in Monte Carlo was always going to be more about getting out on the clay and garnering some match play. 

But even if he came in knowing that a title run was highly unlikely, Murray cannot be thrilled with the circumstances under which he is leaving the picturesque city.  Leading 4-0 in the deciding set, he was shockingly upset by Albert Ramos-Vinolas.  For someone who has not looked like even a shadow of the man that had such spectacular results in the back end of 2016, that kind of loss not only further dents his confidence, but gives added hope to the rest of the field.

Like Murray, Novak Djokovic is also struggling with confidence and his game.  It was just a year ago that Djokovic looked all but invincible with many speculating that he could go on to win the calendar-year Grand Slam.  After winning his maiden Roland Garros title, that buzz only increased.  But the Serb has not looked like the same player since winning that coveted title in Paris.  Minor injuries and personal issues off-court saw his game and concentration take a dip, leading to some painful and inexplicable losses that have continued to plague him in 2017.  That said, Djokovic has declared himself healthy and in a better place mentally.  He also knows his way around a clay court, making a good run Monte Carlo important to his game in the coming weeks.

He has yet to look convincing, with moments of brilliance offset by indecisive and sloppy play, but what is key is that he is still in the tournament.  In fact, after some tight losses already this year, his ability to get the victory when not at his best may prove more beneficial to restoring his belief than an easy route of an opponent.  He is still going to have to raise his level though if he wants to continue that path and remain in title contention.

An opponent who could be in Djokovic's path is Rafael Nadal, and it is for the Spaniard that a title-run in Monte Carlo is most essential.  It is not that Nadal is struggling with his form.  Quite the contrary.  His phenomenal start to the year, which includes finalist appearances in both Melbourne and Miami, has been second to only Roger Federer.  But Nadal knows that now is his bread-and-butter part of the season.  He is the King of Clay, and with Murray and Djokovic both searching to find their form and Federer sitting out until at least Roland Garros, Nadal has an excellent look at cleaning up on the dirt. 

The last thing he wants to do is squander this opportunity and halt the momentum he has built to this point, particularly as it could set him up nicely for the back half of 2017.  Nadal will not be guilty of assigning too much significance to one event, and pundits would be wise to guard against the same.  Despite that wise approach, however, there is no question that anything short of a title will be a major disappointment for the Spaniard.

There is still plenty of tennis to be contested in Monte Carlo, and a surprise victor could emerge.  But all eyes will be fixed on Djokovic and Nadal as they look to avoid joining Murray on the sidelines and take the lead on what they hope will be a successful journey to Paris.