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Looking Forward, Not Back: The World Tour Finals Sets Stage for 2014

Nov 15th 2013

The 2013 ATP World Tour Finals are done and dusted.  The majority of players are preparing to settle into that all-too-short span of time known as the tennis offseason.  But, even as 2013 nears an end with the completion of the Davis Cup final this coming weekend, it is not a moment too soon to start looking forward to 2014.  Next year will undoubtedly produce its share of intriguing stories and surprises, but this season’s edition of the ATP World Tour Finals has already given us a few plot lines to follow come January.

Roger Federer

First, in the final tournament of 2013, Roger Federer confirmed that he still has game.  Despite enduring his worst season in a decade, the Swiss not only managed to qualify for the ATP World Tour Finals but reach the semifinals as well.  He showed an increased commitment to playing more aggressively, particularly off the forehand wing.  It earned him impressive wins in London over Richard Gasquet and his Basel conqueror, Juan Martin Del Potro.  The added pop to his game also aided him in pushing eventual champion Novak Djokovic to three sets in round-robin play. 

As shown by the way that he littered up the stat sheet with both winners and unforced errors, Federer has yet to find the proper balance between offense and defense in his new approach. Still, his results in Basel, Paris, and most assuredly in London demonstrate that his commitment to take more risks is already paying dividends.  Suffice it to say, what we saw of him in London leaves him in a much better place than where he was midway through 2013.  If he can fine-tune his more aggressive style, there is no reason to think that 2014 cannot be a more productive year for the Swiss than this past season was.

A second plot line revolves around which players, if any, are ready to step up and be contenders rather than mere pretenders.  The most obvious candidate to make such a leap is Juan Martin Del Potro.  Stanislas Wawrinka also has had some noteworthy results this year, including a semifinal showing in London in his ATP World Tour Finals debut.  Players like David Ferrer and Tomas Berdych have garnered their share of upsets and fairytale runs as well.  And yet for all the respectable results these men had posted to earn a berth in London, only one – Wawrinka – managed to reach the semifinals.  The others were all shut out by Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, and Federer.  Had Andy Murray been able to compete, we might have been treated to another semifinal roundup featuring the Big Four. That situation leaves one still wondering if there is anyone else who is ready to step up and consistently challenge them for the top prizes in the sport.

While fans are awaiting a new face to stake a claim within the uppermost echelons of the game, most eyes will likely be on what should arguably be considered the current premiere rivalry in the sport:  Nadal versus Djokovic.  Not surprisingly, it was this pair who emerged from the rest of the field to contest the finals in London, which marked the sixth time that they met in 2013.  Djokovic’s win at the ATP World Tour Finals saw him split those six meetings with Nadal at three apiece.  With the men only a year apart in age and possessing an arsenal of weapons to negate the other’s strengths, this is a much more competitive rivalry than that of Federer and Nadal at this stage, even if it does not enjoy the same hype.  To date, Nadal and Djokovic have met a total of 39 times, which is more than any other pair in the history of the Open Era.  Nadal holds the edge 22-17, but Djokovic has been closing the gap during the last few years.  Furthermore, their ability to separate themselves from the best of the best in London illustrated just how far they stand above the rest of the field.  So, love them or hate them, this is the rivalry apt to produce the most fireworks next year. 

Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal

These top two men are also the men to watch in 2014.  For Nadal, 2013 has been one of the best seasons – if not the best season – of his career.  After a seven-month layoff, he returned with a vengeance.  Outside of Wimbledon, he reached the semifinals or better of every tournament that he entered, picking up 10 titles along the way.  But tennis is a sport that frequently falls prey to the mentality of “what have you done for me lately?”  In the remaining weeks of regular tournament play, Nadal suffered losses to Djokovic, Del Potro, and, most surprisingly, Ferrer.  When he reached London, he got a bit lucky to escape matches against Wawrinka and Berdych, both of whom he has dominated without respite for years, and he looked positively frazzled and outclassed by Djokovic in the final.  All of this is not to say that Nadal had a bad end to the year.  He still reached the semifinals or better at each of his final four events, and he has put himself in a position to continue striking it big in 2014.  But, even taking the surface into account, he finished 2013 looking a little more vulnerable than he had earlier this year.

In contrast to Nadal, Djokovic looks like the man to beat heading into 2014, and nothing proved that point more than what he achieved in London.  He emerged from the tougher round-robin group of the two without a loss, and that was in spite of being pushed to three sets in all three matches.  Djokovic then saved his best for last, routinely dismissing both Wawrinka and then Nadal in straight sets to win the title.  But what makes his effort at that stage of the year all the more impressive was that it demonstrated his fitness and, more importantly, his resilience.  For the year, the Serb played only one fewer total match than Nadal and suffered some devastating losses over the course of 2013.  Such a combination would derail a lesser player, but Djokovic put his nose to the grindstone, powering through the last stretch to win Beijing, Shanghai, Paris, and most impressively, his third ATP World Tour Final against the sport’s elite.  What he accomplished in London was reminiscent of the Djokovic of 2011. If he can carry that form into 2014, he is going to be difficult for anyone to stop.

Of course, nobody knows what will really happen in 2014.  Fate has a way of throwing in twists and turns, which is the beauty of sport.  But if what we saw in London is any indication, 2014 should shape up to be an enthralling year of tennis.