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Looking Ahead for Djokovic, Murray After Australia

Feb 5th 2015

The 2015 Australian Open final was an eventful match. After it took 152 minutes for Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray to split the first two sets, the world No. 1 and now five-time champion Djokovic sprinted through the finish line in the last two sets as the Scot did a vanishing act, losing his fourth Australian Open final in the process.

While it may seem that Djokovic is in the driver’s seat for the rest of the year and that Murray still has some work left to do, let’s play devil’s advocate for a second and think about the impact this tournament may have on the rest of the season for these two.

Novak Djokovic

Novak Djokovic

Djokovic had a lot more to lose than Murray in this final—let’s make that clear. Coming in, he had beaten Murray seven consecutive times on hard courts and hadn’t lost to him on a hard court since the 2012 U. S. Open final. In addition, this was a tournament he had won four times previously and had beaten Murray in the final on two separate occasions (2011 and 2013). He also beat Murray in the semifinals in 2013.

What Djokovic didn’t want to happen was a repeat of their last major final, which occurred at Wimbledon in 2013. Djokovic had led by a break in both the second and third sets but ultimately lost in three. He played a below-average match and really didn’t push Murray as hard as a British player looking for his first Wimbledon title needed to be pushed.

Now that Djokovic has gotten past a tournament and match that he was expected to win, his 2014 season really begins to get interesting. Of course, Roland Garros is the major that Djokovic wants to win more than any other, having never won it. Despite looking more than beatable right now, Rafael Nadal is still the current favorite to win the French Open in May. There is a lot of tennis to be played between now and then, and rest assured that Djokovic’s Australian Open title will have little impact on the outcome when May (and June) rolls around. In fact, Nadal has beaten Djokovic at the French Open in three of the previous four years in which Djokovic has won the Australian Open (2008, 2012, and 2013).

It’s ostensibly logical to buy up as much Djokovic stock as possible right now, but a dominant Djokovic season is far from guaranteed.

Andy Murray

Andy Murray

The Australian Open was shaping up to be a tournament to remember for the Scot until the final two sets of the final. Never has Murray rolled over in such a lackluster, uninspiring manner in a huge match as he did in those final two sets. He says it wasn’t physical, and if that’s the case, his mental game is certainly not where it needs to be.

Regardless, Murray’s tournament was very successful. If you had told him after he got wiped off the court by Roger Federer in the round-robin stage of last year’s World Tour Finals that he would be in the championship match of the 2015 Australian Open, he would have taken it in a heartbeat. Despite reaching the quarterfinals at all four majors last year, 2014 proved to be a massive struggle for Murray relative to the better years he has had recently.

Once the draw was released, my expectation was that Murray would either lose in the quarterfinals to Federer or semifinals to Nadal. Who knows what would have happened if he had to face one or both of them, but he put together three fabulous matches to take out Grigor Dimitrov, Nick Kyrgios, and Tomas Berdych in succession in the fourth round, quarterfinals, and semifinals respectively

Losing in a major final against one of your biggest rivals is not an easy pill to swallow, but Murray needs to have a positive outlook, knowing that he could have been up two sets to love in the final had some things gone right for him in that first-set tiebreak.

Having never been to a clay final in his career, winning the French Open is pretty much out of the question for Murray, especially if he has to face two or three of Stan Wawrinka, Djokovic, Federer, and Nadal to do it. Not saying it’s impossible, but don’t bet your house on it.

Wimbledon, Murray’s best chance at a major, could be the one for him this year. His aggressive mindset will translate well to the swift grass courts of SW19 and could reap major rewards for the Scot in July. The U. S. Open, which he won in 2012 for his inaugural major, is definitely something Murray can set his sights on as well.

Murray may have been the loser last Sunday, but it wasn’t as bad as it looked for the Muzza.