As the third round begins, seeds start to clash.  Two marquee meetings on Friday feature three one-time major champions and a talented dark horse on a hot streak.

Coin Flip: Ana Ivanovic vs. Samatha Stosur

Both the Aussie and the Serb are beloved Down Under, and as far as Friday’s matches are concerned, this contest is about as even as it gets.

When it comes to their overall careers, Ivanovic comes out the better of the two, but only by a hair.  She won her lone major at Roland Garros in 2008, reached No. 1 in the rankings, and has 12 career singles titles.  Stosur falls just slightly behind Ivanovic in the numbers.  She, too, has won a single slam, defeating Serena Williams to capture the 2011 US Open.  She has reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 4 and has won five singles titles.

As narrow as the divide is between their professional careers, the gap is even smaller when considering where they are presently.  The two are only separated by three places in the rankings, with Ivanovic ranked 14th ahead of Stosur’s ranking of 17th.  Both also did well in their tune-up events.  Stosur reached the semifinals in Hobart, while Ivanovic fared even more impressively with her title run in Auckland.

In regards to their individual games, there is little to choose between the two.  Neither woman is known as a great mover, although Ivanovic likely holds a slight edge in that department.  Additionally, Ivanovic can do a better job of more regularly hitting through her backhand, but Stosur has more variety off hers.  Stosur should also prove the more capable at the net, and she should hold a clear advantage with her serve.  Then, there is the forehand.  It is the signature shot for both women, and this match may come down to which of them can execute that shot with greater consistency.

With so little to separate these two competitors, one might assume that their head-to-head would shed some clue as to who is the favorite.  Unfortunately, there is little to glean from their past history either.  Ivanovic and Stosur have met seven times, and Stosur maintains the edge at 4-3.  When taking a closer look at their meetings, however, odds lean slightly more in Stosur’s favor.  She may be 1-2 against Ivanovic when the two have played at a major, but her one victory came in Melbourne.  She also holds a 4-1 record against the Serb on hard courts. 

Rather than focusing on their contests against each other, Ivanovic is more apt to look to their individual Australian Open records.  Ivanovic has been to the second week of the year’s first slam the last two years, and she reached the finals here in 2008.  That is decidedly more reassuring than Stosur’s record, which includes only two total appearances in the second week of her native major.

It is difficult to pick a clear favorite in this match because essentially there is none.  Ordinarily, despite the lower ranking, the slight advantage might be given to Stosur.  But this is Australia, and it is Stosur who will have the weight of a nation on her shoulders, while Ivanovic can swing away.  Irrespective of how it all plays out, for the sake of the fans and the competitors, hopefully this turns into the blockbuster third-round encounter that it should be. 

Upping the Ante: Li Na vs. Lucie Safarova

The third round is the stage where the seeds who remain begin to clash, and all of the players will have to take it up a level if they hope to continue advancing.  That is likely what Li Na will expect to do if she hopes to get the better of her third-round opponent, Lucie Safarova. 

Although the Czech has frequently been a victim of her own inconsistency, Lucie Safarova could prove to be a potential stumbling block for Li.  She is currently ranked a respectable No. 26, but she has risen as high as No. 17.  Furthermore, Safarova possesses decent firepower off both wings. As evidenced by her career-high doubles ranking of No. 17, she knows her way around the forecourt too.  She is also a lefty, which presents its own set of unique challenges.  Finally, though Safarova has rarely gone deep at the majors, she has reached one slam quarterfinal, and it was here at the Australian Open in 2007.

Given what Safarova has achieved, Li knows that the Czech is a step up from the competition she has faced thus far.  But the current world No. 4 has plenty of reason to feel good about her odds.  From a purely physical standpoint, she hits the ball a little flatter and a little bigger than Safarova. Since the ball will zip through the air in the Australian heat, this should give her the upper hand in the majority of the rallies.  Additionally, while her game can occasionally go off the rails, Li knows that she is playing some good ball at the moment. 

Li came into this event on the heels of winning Shenzhen in her home country of China for the second consecutive year.  She has the experience of knowing what it takes to win a major, given that she was crowned Roland Garros champion in 2011, and she has enjoyed some of her best success at the Australian Open.  Li has reached the second week at this slam in the last four years, including two finalist appearances in 2011 and 2013, and a semifinal showing in 2010. 

If these past results were not enough to make Li feel confident about her chances, then her head-to-head record should.  Li and Safarova have clashed seven times over the course of their careers. With the exception of their first meeting, all of the matches have gone in favor of the Chinese woman.  Perhaps the one consolation Safarova can take from her lopsided record against Li is that the bulk of those encounters have been relatively close two-set and three-set matches.  That is a fact that could help Li, who will have the luxury of knowing that when things get tight, she tends to be the player who does a better job of holding her nerve.

There is certainly the potential for this to be an entertaining clash, but the one thing that is known is that this match is within Li’s hands.  She will need to be mentally prepared to step it up a notch. If she is, Li should book a place in the second week of the Australian Open for the fifth straight year.