Simona Halep versus Garbiñe Muguruza

There will be plenty on the line when Simona Halep faces Garbiñe Muguruza in Thursday's semifinal.  Not only does a spot in the final hang in the balance, but this one will also determine which woman leaves Paris with the No. 1 ranking.  Although seeded lower, the smart money is on the Spaniard to advance.  Muguruza looked positively lethal against Maria Sharapova in the quarterfinals and arrives at this encounter the fresher of the pair.  Her game is bigger in every facet as well, leaving her better positioned to impose her will.  She should enjoy the mental edge, too, as the third seed leads this rivalry 3-1 and drubbed the Romanian at their last meeting, which came last year in Cincinnati with the loss of just one game. 

Halep is a fighter, however, so she cannot be counted out in this contest.  She has twice been to the finals here, so she is unlikely to be nervous about the occasion.  She has also notched plenty of victories over powerful opposition in the past, so she will not be intimidated by the Spaniard.  Plus, Halep did win their only encounter on clay.  When all is said done, Halep's chances cannot be dismissed, because she is too accomplished in her own right.  But in the end, this is Muguruza's match to win.  As long as she plays within herself, she is the one who should dictate what happens out there to ensure she is able to work her way into the final.

Sloane Stephens versus Madison Keys

A couple of Americans in Paris have fought their way through the bottom half of the draw to reach the final four, and on Thursday, Sloane Stephens and Madison Keys will renew their young rivalry to determine which of them will have the honor of contesting the championship match.  Stephens is the more natural choice to predict as the likely winner for a number of reasons, starting with the fact that she has actually won a major with her win last season in New York.  She also won that title over Keys in the final and did so with the loss of only three games, which may have left some scar tissue where the younger American is concerned.  Stephens has looked more confident and has played at a higher level the last couple of rounds, her defensive skills are far superior to those of Keys, she has yet to drop a set to the thirteenth seed, and clay is Stephens's preferred surface.  None of this is to say that Keys is without a path to victory on Thursday, however. 

She does own the bigger server, which even on this surface can secure her valuable free points or at least set her up for a quick one-two punch.  She also has more firepower off of the ground, particularly on the forehand wing.  When firing on all cylinders, her game is sufficiently imposing that she can dictate the majority of the rallies.  It might mentally help Keys that this is the penultimate match rather than the championship as well because knowing that there will still be work that needs to be done rather than a trophy to lift aloft can reduce the pressure to a degree.  All of this said, a lot more has to be working for Keys on Thursday than for Stephens.  Keys cannot fall back on defense, and she does not have a lot of variety to where she can throw different looks at Stephens.  She has to grip it and rip it and hope that she has brought her best.  If she has, then it could be enough to get her the win.  But there is a reason why Stephens's speed and style of play has been such a bad match-up for Keys in the past, which is why the tenth seed has to be the favorite to move through to her first Roland Garros Final.