Simona Halep versus Jelena Ostapenko

Come Saturday, the tennis world will not only have a new Roland Garros Champion, but a new major singles champion as well.  That woman could be Simona Halep.  The Romanian is currently ranked within the Top 5 and third seed here, and she has been the tournament favorite since the start.  Then again, the new champion might be Jelena Ostapenko.  The young Latvian is emphatically proving that she has the goods to win a slam and would dearly love to seal the deal in this final.  Only one match remains to determine which of these women will complete her fairy-tale run to leave Paris a Roland Garros Champion.

As noted, the odds-on favorite from the outset has been Simona Halep.  The primary reason for that stems from her spectacular form coming into this tournament.  All facets of her game have been clicking.  She has been able to effectively step into the court to rob her opponents of time and put them on the defense.  She has also illustrated she can get her opposition on the run by changing the direction of the ball with equal ease from either wing.  Her greatest asset, however, is how quick she is about the court.  She not only is able to retrieve so many balls but despite her relatively small stature, she is often able to do something with the shot when she gets there, often putting her opponent in an awkward position.  She will need all of these weapons working for her on Saturday, however, it is going to be her stellar retrieving ability and the way she hits on the move that will be the most important aspect of her game.

The third seed is going to need those running shoes because it is Ostapenko who enters this match as the bigger ball-striker.  That Latvian has four inches on Halep, which not only gives her more of an advantage on her serve, but she also gets more bang for her buck when hitting off the ground.  Her preferred side is the backhand, but as she has shown all tournament long, she is an offensively-minded player able to generate an abundance of winners from either side.  She is still developing as a player, but already she has a nice, all-around game and is a decent mover considering her size.  She has also demonstrated her current skill set has been enough to get her this far, and it may just be enough to bag her a maiden major right now.

In addition to her game, the other part of the equation is whether Ostapenko is mentally ready to win a slam.  There is no sure way of knowing this, as the championship match definitely has a different feel to it than any of the other matches she has played at this stage.  That said, Ostapenko has played an awful lot like a woman who believes she belongs here.  She did not fold after her extremely slow start against Caroline Wozniacki in the quarterfinals, and she did not let her nerve fail her in her semifinal victory over Timea Bacsinszky in a match that was filled with peaks and valleys.  Instead, she continued to back herself and her game to ultimately get the job done.  If she keeps that mindset, there is no reason why she could not enjoy the same success in the final.

Ostapenko is a facing woman though who should be about as confident as they come right now.  Halep was the favorite coming into Paris because of how much success she had enjoyed on the road to Roland Garros.  She won the title in Madrid and fell just a match shy of securing the Rome title the following week.  She also has more experience, and unlike the Latvian, she has been here once before having reached the final of Roland Garros in 2014.  She did herself proud on that occasion and could easily do so again.  The one disadvantage Halep faces is that there is heavy pressure on her in this match, because she is such a heavy favorite.  Ostapenko is the first unseeded player she has faced since the second round.  Furthermore, given what all she has accomplished en route to this moment, it is fair to assume that this would be a more heartbreaking loss for the Romanian than Ostapenko.  That realization brings its own kind of pressure, which the third seed will have to put out of mind.

All told, this has all the trappings of what could be an entertaining and competitive women's final.  Ostapenko has certainly made the case with the way she has played these last two weeks that this run is likely just the first of many, and it should not come as a shocking surprise to anyone if she caps it off with a win over the Romanian.  But Halep came in as the favorite for a reason, and thus far, she has lived up to that billing. She knows there is still work to be done.  She appears to be a woman on a mission, and she gets the nod as the player more likely to go one better than she did in 2014 to simultaneously be crowned the World Number 1 and leave Paris a Roland Garros Champion.