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Federer, Nishikori Seek to Seize Control of Group B

Nov 11th 2014

The second pair of matches in Group B at the ATP World Tour Finals feature a battle between two men to seize control of the group and a clash between the other two men to stay relevant.

Roger Federer

Roger Federer v. Kei Nishikori

Federer took out Milos Raonic 6-1 7-6(0) in his opening-round match on Sunday, while Kei Nishikori got the better of a struggling Andy Murray.

The overall head-to-head between these two is 2-2. Federer and Nishikori last met in the semifinals of Halle earlier this year, a match that Federer won in straight sets. Nishikori won their last meeting on a hard court back in March of this year in Miami. Their only meeting on an indoor hard court took place over three years ago in the 2011 Basel final, which Federer won in straight sets.

Nishikori’s form in his match against Murray left a lot to be desired, and he’ll surely have to raise his level of play if he expects to beat Federer at a tournament that he’s won six times. Federer breezed through his opening set against Milos Raonic but was provided with a stern test in the second set. He was forced to save four break points and find his way through several tight service games.

The deciding factor in this match may end up being the speed of the court. In previous years, a much faster court would have given Federer a decisive advantage. On this slower court, however, Nishikori will have more time to set up and execute off the return and to defend in baseline-to-baseline rallies. In addition, if Federer starts to make ventures forward to the net in an attempt to cut down the amount of baseline rallies, Nishikori will also have more time to set up and pass.

In the matches that he’s won against Federer, Nishikori has been incredibly effective attacking the Federer backhand with his inside-out forehand and his cross-court backhand. This is a plan that Nishikori will undoubtedly be implementing tomorrow.

Nishikori is going to offer a ton of resistance tomorrow and may be ready to deliver the biggest upset of the tournament thus far.

Prediction: Nishikori in three sets

Andy Murray

Andy Murray v. Milos Raonic

The loser of this match is going to be in a deep, deep hole. Both Raonic and Murray lost their opening-round matches without winning a set. As a result, games and sets will also be crucial for whoever loses this match.

Surprisingly, Raonic leads the head-to-head 3-1 and won their most previous meeting this year in the fourth round of Indian Wells. Murray’s only victory over Raonic took place on the way to his maiden Grand Slam title at the 2012 U. S. Open.

In front of the London crowd, expect Murray to rise to the occasion. Despite having little success against Raonic in the past, this is a very favorable matchup for Murray. His returning prowess and long wingspan will allow him to get his racket on a high quantity of Raonic’s serves. Murray gains a massive edge if he is able to get Raonic’s serve back into play and start a neutral rally. By contrast, Raonic is at his best when he plays first-strike tennis with his serve and forehand.

The one quality of Murray’s game that will drive Raonic up a wall is his ability to find a way to get that seemingly unreachable ball back into play. Raonic has a tendency to overhit when forced to play one extra shot.

Murray’s slice backhand and flat backhand cross court should keep the ball out of Raonic’s strike zone on his inside-out forehand and minimize the amount of inside-out forehands Raonic plays in general.

Prediction: Murray in two sets