Round-robin play in Group B concludes on Thursday with Roger Federer and Kei Nishikori positioned favorably to reach the semifinals.

Milos Raonic v. Kei Nishikori

These two men have provided us with two of the best matches of the entire 2014 season, both of which Nishikori won. The Japanese No. 1 saw Raonic out in the fourth round of the U. S. Open in a five-setter that ended at 2:26 a. m. Earlier this fall, Nishikori squeaked by Raonic once more in the Tokyo final in a highly compelling three-set match that lasted two hours and 13 minutes.

Raonic’s baseline game has improved drastically over the 2014 season, and he looked especially potent in his two matches against Nishikori, sticking with him from the baseline blow for blow. One would reasonably expect Nishikori to be able to outmaneuver and outlast Raonic with his speed and ability to move the big man across the baseline, but Raonic has been more than capable of handling the baseline challenges Nishikori has thrown his way.

Their overall head-to-head is 4-1 in favor of Nishikori, but this match is definitely up for grabs especially if we take into consideration the sub-par level of play Nishikori displayed in his second round-robin match against Roger Federer.

The most obvious strategy for Nishikori to employ in this match is to move Raonic around and engage him in as many backhand-to-backhand rallies as possible. Raonic’s backhand is not as liable as it used to be, but it stands no chance of holding up against Nishikori’s domineering cross-court backhand. Also, Raonic is much more capable from the baseline when he’s dictating the play and doesn’t have to stretch his long limbs laterally across the baseline.

If Raonic wants to avoid leaving the World Tour Finals winless, he’ll need to control the center of the court and ensure his inside-out forehand isn’t leaving anything to chance. Nishikori is one of the fastest players in the world, and he’ll have no trouble moving out to his backhand side and cracking it down the line in response to a Raonic inside-out forehand.

Against Federer, Nishikori seemed to struggle from the middle of the court when he was pressed with a deeper shot. Raonic may want to consider cutting off Nishikori’s angles from the baseline by going hard and flat up the center of the court.

Even though Raonic has lost his first two matches, it’s very hard to see Nishikori winning if he is unable to improve upon what we saw against Federer.

Prediction: Raonic in two sets

Roger Federer v. Andy Murray

If there’s any match that may turn around the streak of one-sided singles matches we’ve seen this week, this may be the one. Any match between two members of the Big Four has the potential to be great, and the rivalry between Federer and Murray has proven to be a tight battle over the years.

Recent form would suggest that Federer will win this match with very few complications, but with a spot in the semifinals on the line for the Scot, Murray will surely be inspired to take the lead in this head-to-head, which is currently squared up at 11-11.

Federer has won three out of the last four matches that these two have played, including victories at the Australian Open and Cincinnati this year. Murray was only able to win one total set in those matches and was for the most part simply outclassed, although he did blow a 4-1 double-break lead in the second set of their quarterfinal match in Cincinnati.

Murray enters this match with a victory over Milos Raonic, while Federer took down a substandard Kei Nishikori in his last round-robin match. Murray’s win over Raonic only does as much as to keep him alive and to be quite frank, it’s probably a match that doesn’t provide that much to him in terms of having what it takes mentally to beat Federer. This isn’t to say he won’t believe that he can beat Federer, just that the Raonic match won’t have anything to do with that belief.

The tipping point shot in this match will be the Murray second serve. In the past, Murray has been successful against Federer when he has been able to get Federer chipping his second serve into the middle of the court, thereby putting himself on the immediate offensive. In Murray’s last victory over Federer at the 2013 Australian Open, the Scot put forth an impressive level of aggression and fearlessness, really going after the jugular when he was given the chance, particularly off the forehand side.

Federer’s willingness to come forward will help him immensely in this match. The slower speed of the court will allow Murray to defend more effectively and also will force Federer to come up with something a bit more special on a more frequent basis. In other years, Federer would have been fine trying to end these types of points from the baseline, but with Stefan Edberg directing the ship nowadays, look for the Swiss to get to the net whenever Murray gets himself in a spot of defensive worry.

If this match pans out like the rest of the event has, Federer will win this match, and it probably won’t be very close. That’s more or less what I see happening, although it may not be as big of a blowout as some of the other matches we’ve seen.

Prediction: Federer in two sets