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Federer, Djokovic, Berdych Face Dangerous Underdogs in Last 16

Jun 1st 2014

The second week of Roland Garros kicks off with a pair of notable shot-makers testing two of the tournament favorites, while the top American man eyes his first French Open quarterfinal.

Roger Federer

Roger Federer v. Ernests Gulbis

Ernests Gulbis last reached the fourth round of the French Open all the way back in 2008. In the interim, the Latvian has failed to advance past the third round of any Grand Slam event. For a player who is as talented as Gulbis, such long-term mediocrity at the majors is pretty shocking, even considering his mercurial nature.

In that 2008 French Open, Gulbis reached the quarterfinals before losing a tightly contested straight-sets match to Novak Djokovic. On Sunday, the Latvian will be taking on the 2009 Roland Garros champion, Roger Federer. The Swiss star looked pretty comfortable in his first two matches before being pushed to a fourth set by Dmitry Tursunov in the third round.

Gulbis and Federer have played three times, all in 2010. The two played on clay in Rome and Madrid that year. Gulbis pulled off the upset in Rome, and Federer avenged the setback a few weeks later in Madrid.

This match definitely can be classified as an upset alert. Gulbis has won 10 out of his last 11 matches and was a title winner the week before the French Open in Nice. Federer entered the French Open as a new father of twin boys and a second-round loser in Rome.

If the match is played between the forehands of Federer and Gulbis, Federer will be in total control. If the rallies are predominantly backhand to backhand, the advantage goes to Gulbis. Look for Gulbis to serve to the Federer backhand on most first and second serves with the goal of extracting a weak return that he can use to control points. Federer will be looking to keep Gulbis on the run, particularly to his forehand side. Gulbis’s forehand can become a huge liability if rushed, and Federer certainly has the weapons to attack it.

While all of the talk lately has been centered around the rise of Nishikori, Dimitrov, and Raonic, Ernests Gulbis may be ready to power his way through to his second Roland Garros quarterfinal.

Prediction: Gulbis in five sets

Novak Djokovic

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga v. Novak Djokovic

Revenge. That is what will probably be on Jo-Wilfried Tsonga’s mind as he squares off against Novak Djokovic in the fourth round Sunday.

In 2012, Tsonga was on the precipice of scoring one of the biggest victories of his career. The Frenchman held four match points in the fourth set, all of which were fended off by the Serb in dramatic fashion. Djokovic went on to win the fifth set 6-1.

Since this match, Tsonga and Djokovic have played five times. Djokovic has won all five matches and hasn’t dropped a set to the Frenchman. Surprisingly, however, Tsonga rather than Djokovic is the player in this matchup who did not drop a set through the first three rounds.

The “rivalry” between Tsonga and Djokovic dates back to the 2008 Australian Open final. Djokovic leads the head-to-head 11-5, and four of Tsonga’s wins against Djokovic came before Djokovic broke out in 2011.

When examining this head-to-head, it’s pretty clear why Tsonga hasn’t found much success. For one, Djokovic’s return of serve neutralizes Tsonga’s serve, and Djokovic’s sensational defensive barriers prevents Tsonga from dictating with his explosive forehand. Tsonga also has one of the weakest backhands of any top player, whereas Djokovic has perhaps the strongest. If Djokovic can find the Tsonga backhand on a regular basis, he’ll be in solid shape. Even if he can’t, his resounding depth and width should make it difficult for Tsonga to run around his backhand to play his forehand.

Tsonga is going to have to put together a vintage performance if he wants to pull of what would be the shocker of the tournament. The task is a large one, but crazier things have happened.

Prediction: Djokovic in four sets

Tomas Berdych

Tomas Berdych v. John Isner

An American in the quarterfinals of the French Open? Blasphemous. Most people would have called you crazy if you told them that an American would reach the quarterfinals of Roland Garros. Nevertheless, John Isner is one match away from proving a lot of people wrong.

Unfortunately for Isner, his obstacle is a tall one—figuratively and literally. Isner is 2-4 against Berdych and only won five games the last time they played on clay. This match took place at the French Open in 2010.

If Isner’s first three matches are any indication of what’s to come against Berdych, there will be a lot of tiebreaks in this match. In the 11 sets John Isner has played in the first three rounds, eight have ended in tiebreaks. With Berdych possessing a top-tier serve, it would be very surprising not see a tiebreak or two in this encounter.

Interestingly enough, in their last two matches, Berdych and Isner have played no tiebreaks. Isner, while possessing arguably the greatest serve in the game, has one of the most inept return games. Against a big server like Berdych, his ineptitude on the return of serve is highlighted. Barring an extremely poor match from Berdych, it’s hard to imagine Isner winning this match without needing to win two or three tiebreaks. That’s a tall order against a top-eight opponent.

Prediction: Berdych in four sets