There is a danger in assigning too much importance to a particular match or tournament.  Hindsight might point to a specific instance that changed a player's career trajectory, but a more realistic view would suggest that the greatest players will find another springboard to success, while those who failed to recover from a single setback were never meant to be legends anyway.  All of that said, every player understands the necessity of gaining confidence and building momentum.  Roger Federer is currently missing those two things.  He is keenly aware of it and knows that if he wants to turn his 2016 around, he has to start doing so now.

Federer would be the first to say that he has been fortunate throughout his career as far as his health is concerned.  He has stayed fit and plays a style of tennis that has saved on wear and tear on his body.  He understands that he has had his share of luck regarding his health as well, although this season, he has not been quite as fortunate.  A freak knee injury that led to minor surgery and a niggling back issue have kept the Swiss on the sidelines for much of this year.

With Federer playing so sparingly, it can be easy to forget that he started the year off so well with a finalist appearance in Brisbane and a semifinal showing in Melbourne.  He is also still ranked No. 3 in the world.  But what is remembered is that he did not play after the Australian Open until Monte Carlo, where he went out in the quarterfinals.  He followed that up with a disheartening early exit in Rome before throwing in the towel on his clay season altogether with his withdrawal from Roland Garros.  

The good news for Federer with all of these setbacks is that if he is sufficiently recovered, he ought to be very fresh heading into the back half of the season.  No doubt he will be plenty hungry too.  On the downside, he is lacking in match play and is still trying to regularly find his rhythm.  It also leaves him more open to an upset, and especially after suffering a couple of losses to the talented young gun Dominic Thiem – including last week in Stuttgart – there will be many in the field itching to get a look at playing the decorated veteran.

For his own part, Federer is putting a positive spin on the situation.  He recently stated he felt he had made the right decision in choosing to play both Stuttgart and Halle and is happy with the way his body is responding.  He feels he is once again becoming a danger to opponents and is optimistic that he will be ready to go when Wimbledon arrives.

For Federer's sake, however, it is imperative that he is as ready to go as much as possible when the year's third major gets underway.  He has always been lethal on the grass, and for all of his success Down Under and during the spring hard court season, it is on the faster hard courts of summer and the indoor tournaments that follow where he can inflict the most damage.  Furthermore, as the defending finalist at both Wimbledon and the US Open, the Swiss is facing a lot of pressure to defend those points and avoid seeing his ranking take a tumble.  

All told, Federer is a man with nothing left to prove, who continues to play because he loves the sport.  He also plays because he wants to win and believes he still can.  As evidenced by his results last year and early this year, there is ample reason for him to continue believing that.  But he first has to get his game firing on all cylinders to prove to himself and the rest of the field that he remains a force to be reckoned with, and he can do so by backing up his solid run last week in Stuttgart with a similar or better result this week in Halle.  Righting the ship now and through the months to come is the only thing that can salvage his 2016 and perhaps have him poised for success in 2017.