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Djokovic, Wawrinka Seek Australian Open Rematch

Jan 27th 2015

In each of the last two Australian Opens, Novak Djokovic and Stan Wawrinka have produced a match to remember. Will they have the chance to craft a third, or will another top-eight seed step up?

Stanislas Wawrinka

Kei Nishikori v. Stan Wawrinka

In the first of the two men’s quarterfinals, defending champion Stan Wawrinka will take to the court against rising star Kei Nishikori for a spot in the semifinals. Wawrinka and Nishikori are two of the most explosive ball-strikers on the planet. The winner count in this match could really get up there if both guys can find their range from an early juncture in the match.

Wawrinka and Nishikori last met in the quarterfinals of the U. S. Open last fall, a match that Nishikori won in five sets. Their only other two matches took place in 2012, with Wawrinka having won each of those affairs in straight sets in Buenos Aires and Cincinnati.

Nishikori looked very dominant in his fourth-round match against David Ferrer, steamrolling the resilient Spaniard in three sets. Wawrinka, who won the first two sets in his fourth-round match against Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, lost the third set but then rallied from a 6-2 deficit in the fourth-set tiebreak to avoid going the distance.

The backhand-to-backhand exchanges in this contest should be nothing short of spectacular. Wawrinka has what is arguably the best one-handed backhand in tennis, and Nishikori possesses what some believe is the best and most versatile two-handed backhand around. It’ll be interesting to see how each player decides to approach their backhands and the balance they attempt to strike between the use of sheer power and spin or angles.

The return of serve is going to be a big question mark for Wawrinka. He tends to chip the ball back into play, which spells trouble against someone who can take the ball as early as Nishikori. Wawrinka will really need to go after his returns if he hopes to mount any type of sustainable pressure on Nishikori. Wawrinka has a far better serve than Nishikori, but Nishikori will probably have an easier time breaking because his return is just that much more effective than Wawrinka’s.

In a match where both players can really get ahead on offense, neutralizing and defending will prove critical. It is without question that Nishikori is the faster player and the better defender. He’ll be able to transition from defense to offense on more a regular basis than Wawrinka.

Wawrinka had a magical run to the 2014 final last year, but the buck stops here for him.

Prediction: Nishikori in four sets

Novak Djokovic

Novak Djokovic v. Milos Raonic

The serve vs. the return.

Offense v. defense.

In the night match on Rod Laver Arena, top seed and world No. 1 Novak Djokovic will take on Canadian Milos Raonic.

Djokovic is widely regarded as the best returner in tennis, while Raonic possesses one of the most lethal serves the game has ever seen. In addition, Raonic’s offensive prowess from the baseline, especially off the forehand side, has been dramatically improving.

Raonic and Djokovic have met on three previous occasions. Djokovic has won all three of these matches and has only dropped one set along the way. Their most recent meeting came in the final of the Paris Indoor Masters 1000 event last fall, and their most recent Grand Slam clash took place in the quarterfinals of the French Open last year.

Raonic had a spectacular year in 2014 and was one of the most consistent players on tour, allowing him to qualify for the World Tour Finals for the first time in his career. What the rest of the tour should be scared of is the fact that Raonic’s 2014 form, which was very high to begin with, is nothing like what we’ve seen from him in 2015. He’s fitter, faster, and hitting the ball harder than ever. His inside-out forehand is becoming one of the most dangerous shots in the game.

Watching Raonic, it’s always amazing to see how close to the lines he can hit his inside-out forehand, something that will surely come in handy against Djokovic’s stellar defensive skills.

The problem that Raonic has against the top guys is his inability to break serve. For as easy as a time as Raonic has holding his own serve, that’s how tough it’s been for him over the years to break, and why we see him engaged in so many tiebreaks.

Raonic’s coach, Ivan Ljubicic, will want him to go after his shots on his return games in order to create opportunities and shift the pressure onto the racket of Djokovic. Raonic doesn’t want to be in a situation where Djokovic is easily holding his serve and constantly finding looks on his serve. That is a recipe for disaster.

My pick is Djokovic in this one, but look for Raonic to really make things close and provide a great fight to the very end.

Prediction: Djokovic in four sets