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Clash of Titans: Previewing Federer vs. Nadal XXXIII

Jan 23rd 2014

When Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer step together onto a tennis court, spectators are able to witness a clash of equally sensational and brilliant styles of tennis. Federer is a bastion of offensive firepower, whereas Nadal is a steel fortress of defense. Nadal is known for his indomitable spirit and vicious intensity, while Federer is known for his calm exterior and graceful strokes. Their individual achievements symbolize how there is more than one recipe for success on a tennis court.

On Friday night, arguably the two greatest tennis players of all time will meet once again. In the 33rd chapter of their celebrated rivalry, Rafael Nadal comes in as the slight favorite on the back of a remarkable 2013 campaign. Federer, whose 2014 form already looks significantly improved from 2013, will relish the opportunity to take on his ultimate rival in yet another huge match.

Rafael Nadal

Nadal enters Friday’s semifinal with a victory in the quarterfinals over young Bulgarian upstart, Grigor Dimitrov. Dimitrov raced out to a one-set lead before Nadal stormed back to win the final three sets. Dimitrov was literally inches away from taking a two-sets-to-one lead when he sprayed a short forehand into the doubles alley on set point in the third set. The main cause for concern for Nadal going into the semifinal is the unpleasant blister on his left hand. In the Spaniard’s first four matches, he hit three double faults. Against Dimitrov, he hit three double faults in one game and seven for the match. In addition, Nadal’s first-serve speed was lower against Dimitrov than any other opponent. All of these may be signs that Nadal’s left hand is being hampered by that painful blister.

Federer, with a new racquet in his bag and a new coach in his box, seems to have rectified the issues with his back and is hitting the ball much cleaner and consistently than last season. With Stefan Edberg by his side, he has taken a more traditional, proactive approach toward his tennis in the first five rounds. This has been highlighted by an increased ambition to move forward and end points at the net, something Federer does exceptionally well. In his quarterfinal victory over Andy Murray, Federer won 49 of 66 points when he came to the net, a trend he will surely need to maintain against Nadal. Federer’s movement and defense have also looked considerably better than last year thus far. Opponents have had a more difficult time overwhelming the Swiss with pace and depth from the ground. Federer has also appeared to be moving much better laterally, defending the corners of the court with more comfort.

The head-to-head in this matchup has been dominated by Nadal. The Spaniard has won 22 of the 32 matches these two have played. Nadal leads Federer 8-6 on hard courts, 7-2 on outdoor hard courts, and 10-3 in best-of-five-set matches. The last time Federer and Nadal met was in the semifinals of the World Tour Finals last fall, a match that Nadal won in straight sets. Nadal has won their last four meetings. The last time Federer beat Nadal was in the semifinals of Indian Wells in 2012, nearly two years ago.

It’s really no secret what Nadal’s strategy is going to be. He’ll serve to Federer’s backhand on almost every first and second serve and will look to stamp his authority on the rallies by going cross-court with his lethal forehand into Federer’s susceptible one-handed backhand. Nadal not having to adapt and alter his strategy against Federer has provided him with a massive mental edge in all of their matches. Federer, for ages, has been trying different strategies and tactics in an attempt to beat Nadal. Some have worked, but many have ultimately failed.

Roger Federer

If Federer hopes to be playing in Sunday’s final, he’ll have to be dominant on serve. If Federer can’t win free points off his first serve or draw short replies facilitating first-strike tennis, Nadal will make him pay on his second-serve points. It’s nearly a guarantee that Federer will lose if he doesn’t serve at an extremely high percentage.

The ventures into the net that Federer used so effectively against Murray will also need to be a staple of his game against Nadal. Limiting the amount of long baseline rallies works heavily in Federer’s favor, although he should be cautious with his approach shots, particularly to Nadal’s forehand. The Spaniard’s passing shots are the best in the business.

Federer will be hoping the cooler conditions create an environment where the balls are bouncing lower and faster, closer to what is seen at the World Tour Finals than at the French Open. If these types of conditions come into fruition, Nadal’s ability to dictate with his cross-court forehand will be somewhat diminished.

At the end of the day, if Federer can’t come up with the goods, he won’t be vying for his 18th major title on Sunday. Nadal is simply too steady to lose a best-of-five match against an error-ridden opponent.

The last time Federer beat Nadal at a major was in 2007 in the Wimbledon final. Since then, Nadal has beaten Federer five consecutive times at majors. Nadal is only a slight favorite, but Federer will have to produce a truly special performance to get through.

Prediction: Nadal in four sets