Three major champions and a dark horse fond of Melbourne highlight women’s action as the second week starts.

A Hazardous Hurdle? Serena Williams vs. Ana Ivanovic

It might not quite be the Round of 16 encounter a number of Australians were hoping to see, but Serena Williams versus Ana Ivanovic is a match that a number of other fans were highly anticipating.  Many believe that it is the Serb who could possibly provide the first stern test for Williams, but it will be up to Ivanovic to determine if that belief is built on a solid foundation.

Ivanovic certainly has the credentials to suggest she could be a tough out for almost anyone in the field, including Williams.  As a former No. 1 and 2008 Roland Garros champion, she has the big-match experience.  She has also been playing better ball of late, as evidenced by her current ranking of No. 14.  Furthermore, thanks to her title run in Auckland, she maintains an unblemished record this season. But as great as these achievements are, perhaps the most impressive attribute about Ivanovic right now is her mental strength, which has improved in leaps and bounds. 

This was clearly on display in her match against Samantha Stosur in the previous round.  The match was played under the lights of Rod Laver Arena – a venue that under those circumstances guaranteed the majority of the fans would be against her.  She also had to swallow the bitter disappointment of losing the opening-set tiebreak 10-8.  But, instead of allowing that disappointment and the situation to translate into a prolonged period of poor play, Ivanovic went straight back to work.  Her efforts paid off as she took the next two sets in comfortable fashion.  It was the kind of response that bodes well for her future.

The problem for Ivanovic is that no matter how much she has improved in these facets, she is facing a woman in Serena Williams who trumps her in all categories.  Williams owns 17 singles majors to just the one for Ivanovic.  She not only presently sits atop the rankings, but she has been at that pinnacle far more than the Serb.  Williams, too, has started her 2014 campaign without the loss of a match, but unlike Ivanovic, she has been mostly untouchable the last 12-18 months.  She is one of the greatest fighters in the history of the sport and projects a much more intimidating presence than her opponent. 

The other statistic working heavily in favor of Williams is her record against Ivanovic.  She is a perfect 4-0 against the Serb, with three of those four meetings coming on the hard courts of the US Open.  Even more disheartening for Ivanovic is that she has yet to take a set off Williams.  Perhaps the only consolation Ivanovic might take from her dismal record against Williams is that none of the four meetings occurred during her best year to date, 2008.  If she once again plays a similar brand of tennis to what she did that magical year, she might believe she is in with a chance.

There is no question that Serena Williams is the overwhelming favorite in this contest.  She does everything better than her opponent and essentially holds the match in her hands.  But Williams must be careful.  She cannot afford to be lackadaisical, for unlike some players, Ivanovic possesses the necessary weapons and talent to make her pay for dropping her level of play.  This match will likely be business as usual for Williams, but an upset is by no means out of the realm of possibility.

The Escape Artists: Li Na vs. Ekaterina Makarova

Every player is happy to reach the second week of a major.  Among that select group, there are sometimes those who are lucky to be there – whether they admit it or not.  Sunday’s matches feature one such contest between two women looking to press their luck one round further.

No. 4 seed Li is arguably the luckier of the pair to still be in the title hunt.  After moving through her first couple of rounds with relative ease, she hit a huge hiccup in the third round against Lucie Safarova.  For the better part of two sets, it was Safarova who was in the ascendancy with her game firing on all cylinders, while Li struggled with hers.  Safarova even managed to earn a match point before Li woke up to scrape by in the second set tiebreak and routinely take the third. 

Makarova’s escape act did not including facing down a match point, but it still had plenty of drama.  Her brush with elimination came in the first round against Venus Williams.  The veteran American, who had just reached the final in Auckland, is still considered to be one of the most dangerous floaters in any draw she enters.  The way she was initially playing on the opening day in Melbourne showed why.  The Russian spent the bulk of the match playing from behind thanks to the penetrating tennis coming off the racquet of Williams.  But Makarova refused to buckle under the onslaught. As she has done so well at this event over the last few years, she found a way to get the win and has looked increasingly comfortable ever since.

At first glance, Li would be the obvious choice to advance.  Aside from her superior ranking and seeding, she also leads her head-to-head with Makarova 4-0.  But that lopsided head-to-head is misleading.  Of those four meetings, three of them went the distance into third sets.  Furthermore, the majority of their sets have tended to be close, with two coming down to tiebreaks that were won by Makarova.  Makarova can also take comfort in knowing that this is not her first rodeo.  She still may feel the pressure of the moment if she finds herself in a position to cause the upset, but Makarova has collected her share of big wins in Melbourne.  She is less likely to blink if she finds herself poised for victory over the No. 4 seed than a wide-eyed debutante would be.

All of this is to say that there is no dominant favorite in this match, in spite of what the statistics would suggest.  When it comes to any individual match, tennis is not predominantly about what a player has or has not done in the past, but rather what he or she is able to produce on that given day.  With both women playing a similar style, it will all come down to who executes the x’s and o’s best.