ATP columnist Nick Nemeroff offers his thoughts on a trio of key encounters to watch on Day 2, two involving home hopes and one featuring a young American.

Rafael Nadal vs. Bernard Tomic

When the draw ceremony took place, there was a collective gasp among spectators when it was revealed that Australia’s Bernard Tomic would be squaring off against top seed Rafael Nadal in the first round. While this is certainly a horrifying draw for Tomic, Nadal was probably hoping for a less proficient opponent to start his campaign in Melbourne.

Nadal comes into this year’s Australian Open on the back of his first Doha title, where he beat Frenchman Gael Monfils in the final. The world No. 1 was tested along the way by the likes of Tobias Kamke, Ernests Gulbis, and Peter Gojowczyk.  Absent in last year’s Australian Open, Nadal has no points to defend and will  be looking to become the first man in the modern era to win every major at least twice.

Tomic’s 2013 was… let’s just say… not as good as Nadal’s. The Aussie went 25-22 on the year and won his only title in the second week of the season at Sydney, defeating Kevin Anderson in the final. After winning in Sydney, Tomic failed to advance past the quarterfinals of any tournament for the rest of the year. Although he could not defend his Sydney title last week, reaching the final again should give him some confidence before taking on Nadal.

The only time that Nadal and Tomic have played was in the 2011 Australian Open third round, which Nadal won in straight sets. Tomic appeared primed to win the second set after going ahead 4-0 but eventually conceded the set 7-5.

Being a massive underdog is never easy, but there are some aspects of Tomic’s game that should make handling Nadal a bit easier. For one, it’s important to remember that Tomic is 6’5”. His height will make Nadal’s vicious topspin easier to take on early. In addition, Tomic’s wingspan will allow him to better counter Nadal’s sidespin serve, particularly on the ad side of the court. That said, Tomic’s crafty style of play won’t do him any favors against Nadal. He’ll have to be more aggressive and proactive than he is accustomed to being if he wants any chance of winning three out of five sets against Nadal.

Prediction: Nadal in three sets

Lleyton Hewitt vs. Andreas Seppi

Australia’s pride and joy, the 32-year-old Lleyton Hewitt, will start his journey in Australia against 29-year-old Italian Andreas Seppi of Italy. Hewitt recorded a marvelous victory over longtime rival Roger Federer in the final of Brisbane to start this season.  

2013 was a mediocre year for Hewitt. The veteran Aussie went 24-18 on the season, reaching the fourth round of the US Open and the final of Newport.  Seppi, like Hewitt, failed to win a title in 2013. The Italian only played one match coming into this tournament, a straight-sets lost to Marinko Matosevic in Auckland.

The last time these two met was several months ago in Shanghai, which Seppi won in straight sets. The record in this matchup is 3-3, but on hard courts Seppi leads 3-1.

It’ll be interesting to see how long this match stretches out. Seppi and Hewitt are known as two of the premier counterpunchers in the ATP today. A clash of similar styles may spawn a war of attrition under the scorching Melbourne sun. Both men have displayed a propensity to grind out matches over their careers, so this may end up being a battle of who wants it more—which most likely will end up being Hewitt.

Hewitt is the better player, and at his home slam, should be able to capture a place in the second round with the support of the Australian crowd behind him.

Prediction: Hewitt in four sets

Gael Monfils vs. Ryan Harrison

In a battle of two underachievers, the declining American Ryan Harrison will take on the enigma that is Gael Monfils.

Monfils kicked off 2014 with a run to the final in Doha. Defeated by Nadal in three sets in the final, he had recorded wins over Richard Gasquet, Daniel Brands, and Florian Mayer on the way. Monfils also put forth a tremendous effort in Shanghai at the end of 2013, taking out Federer in three sets before nearly beating Novak Djokovic.

Harrison’s 2013 was pretty bleak. The 21-year-old American, who still has a lot of years ahead of him, went 11-21 on the year, won no titles, and won only two matches at the four majors. The last time that Harrison won an ATP main-draw match was at Cincinnati back in August. He has gone 6-2 in 2014, but the six wins came in qualifying matches and the two losses in main-draw matches at Brisbane and Sydney.

Monfils and Harrison have no prior history. Both tend to retreat well behind the baseline and prefer to let their speed and defense do the talking, which is a shame because they both are very adept from all areas of the court. They both can crack serves, pound groundstrokes, and attack the net with effectiveness.

Harrison is essentially a poor man’s version of Monfils and doesn’t really outmatch the Frenchman with any shot. Monfils is the player of form and should be able to hit through Harrison.

Prediction: Monfils in four sets