Close friends as they rose to prominence, Victoria Azarenka and Caroline Wozniacki find themselves in very different positions this fortnight.

Gut Check: Victoria Azarenka vs. Barbora Zahlavova Strycova

Before the women’s draw for the Australian Open was made, most analysts were in agreement that Serena Williams was the heavy favorite to waltz away with the trophy.  That notion has not changed, but there are still other legitimate contenders for the title.  Among them is Victoria Azarenka, and many believe that it is Azarenka who stands the greatest chance of halting Williams in her march to the title.  But before Azarenka can even consider tackling the conundrum of Williams, she needs to first focus on getting out of her second-round match.  In order to do that, she needs to get by Barbora Zahlavova Strycova.

Theoretically, Zahlavova Strycova should not pose any sort of a threat to Azarenka.  There is little in the Czech’s game or history that would suggest she could be dangerous.  Although previously ranked in the top 40, she currently resides at No. 84.  Zahlavova Strycova did not play a WTA tune-up event in January, and she has only once been to the third round in Melbourne.  She also will not be as fresh as Azarenka, for she needed three sets to escape the first round against Su-Wei Hsieh.  In the brutal heat of the Australian summer, that lack of additional rest could prove pivotal.

By contrast, Azarenka got out of her opening round in straight sets.  Azarenka is also currently the second-best player in the world, and as the two-time defending Australian Open Champion, it is safe to assume that she knows her way around these courts.  Furthermore, she has proven herself remarkably consistent on hard courts, having also reached the finals of the US Open the last two seasons and winning the Cincinnati Premier Five event last year over Williams. 

Azarenka also goes into this match knowing that she has come out victorious against Zahlavova Strycova in their only two previous meetings.  In fact, she has not even dropped a set to the Czech. 

But this is a major, which means things are rarely so straightforward.  In her opening match against the 91-ranked Johanna Larsson, Azarenka appeared nervous and edgy.  Some of this has to be chalked up to the courageous play of Larsson, but the first set, which went to a tiebreaker, was more about Azarenka struggling to find her range on groundstrokes than anything else.  It was hardly the kind of display that sends the right kind of message to the rest of the field.

Azarenka needs to step it up against Zahlavova Strycova in round two.  The Czech is the perfect kind of opponent for her to find her form, gain some confidence, and send a message to the other competitors that she means business in her mission to three-peat in Melbourne.  If she struggles against Zahlavova Strycova, not only will it give everyone else some hope, but it is likely to further frustrate and dent her own confidence of the Belarusian.  Thus, this match could prove more important than what its face value would initially suggest.

Road to Redemption: Caroline Wozniacki vs. Christina McHale

Redemption.  Many tennis players seek it to some degree at some point in their professional careers.  It is not something that comes easily.  There are only a finite number of opportunities to claim it, so a player has to be ready to take advantage of such an opportunity when it presents itself.  On Thursday, two players will have that opportunity as Caroline Wozniacki takes on Christina McHale for a place in the third round of the Australian Open.

At 23, Wozniacki is only two years older than her American opponent, and yet she is vastly more experienced as a player.  She has reached the pinnacle of the rankings, won 21 singles titles, and arrived at the final of the US Open.  The problem for Wozniacki is that the bulk of that success came three or four years ago.   She is now ranked No. 10, and the consistent results that helped take her to No.1 no longer come with any regularity.  A case in point can be seen in her result in Sydney last week, where she lost in the second round to Lucie Safarova.

Wozniacki’s dip in results the last year or so has been nothing compared to the slide endured by Christina McHale, however.  Les than three years ago, McHale appeared to be the most likely candidate for taking the baton from the Williams sisters as the leader of American women’s tennis.  She was a solid player who showed maturity beyond her years.  McHale shot up to a career-high singles ranking of No. 24, and one of her breakthrough victories came over none other than Wozniacki at Cincinnati in 2011. 

Unfortunately, her game seemed to falter under the weight of increased expectations, and a bad case of mononucleosis only hindered her cause.  McHale now stands ranked No. 62 and had to play the qualifying in Sydney just to get into the main draw, a feat that she did achieve before losing in the second round to Petra Kvitova.  Much like Wozniacki, she is desperately looking to right the ship here in Melbourne.

Conventional wisdom would identify Wozniacki as the more likely of the pair to walk away with the victory.  She looked good in her previous match, dropping just two games against Lourdes Dominguez Lino.  She is ranked over 50 places higher than her opponent, and she has been remarkably consistent in Melbourne.  The Dane has booked a place in the second week of this event in each of the last four years, including a semifinal showing in 2011.  She also has significantly more big-match experience than McHale, which could serve her well if things get tight.

But all is not gloomy for McHale.  Despite the disparity in rankings and experience, she has reason to be confident.  The American holds a 2-1 head-to-head record against Wozniacki.  Plus, while McHale lacks the big groundstrokes to hit Wozniacki off of the court, she can expect to be in the vast majority of the rallies with the former No. 1, who also lacks the firepower of a Serena Williams or a Maria Sharapova.

In short, this has the potential to be a very even contest with plenty of long rallies.  The searing heat and nerves will likely play a factor in determining the outcome as both women look to turn their games back in the right direction.