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Australian Open Draw Takeaways

Jan 12th 2019

The 2019 Australian Open draw was announced on Thursday, and it quickly set tennis tongues wagging.  Fans and pundits alike have been quick to analyze the draw in an effort to predict who the likely champions will be, the dark horses who could surprise, and the unfortunate souls who look most likely to make a disappointing early exit.

Not surprisingly, most people's lists for men's champion begins and ends with Novak Djokovic, and the Serb certainly is not a bad bet.  He has won the last two majors, is back to Number 1 in the world, reached the final of Doha last week, and has reigned victorious in Melbourne on six other occasions.  On paper, Djokovic has the tougher road out of the gates than other favorites like Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal, but he is no doubt helped by the Swiss and Spaniard being located in the opposite half of the draw.  Presently, the Serb's form is also better than that of Nadal and Federer.  So, while it would not be a stunner to see any of these three men win the title, if Djokovic is able to continue where he left off in 2018, he is only a couple of weeks away from securing a seventh Australian Open title.

Novak Djokovic

While things have not changed on the men's side as far as where to look for the likely champion, things have not changed a lot of on the women's side in terms of its unpredictability.  With Serena Williams returning to Melbourne for the first time since securing the title a couple of years ago, many are looking to her as the likely champion.  Given her success Down Under and the fact that her best is still generally better than any other opponent's best, it is difficult to bet against her.  She has yet to be really tested this year, however, and she cut her season short last year.  Combine that with the fact that she is in a loaded quarter, and she could be ripe for an upset.  That is also why a potential nod has to be given to second seed and former champion Angelique Kerber, who is playing well and is in a much more workable portion of the draw.  Newcomer Aryna Sabalenka is also a worthy candidate.  She came on gangbusters the latter half of 2018 and with her title run in Shenzhen has picked up right where she left off.  She has a powerful game and is knocking on the door of the Top 10.  Located in the weaker bottom half at a time when women's tennis is wide open, and this Belorussian could be poised to do something big.

As for the dark horses, there are a number of young guns on the ATP on which folks will be keeping tabs, but given the locale, the tip of the hat has to go to Alex de Minaur.  The Australian teenager has quickly made a name for himself, being named the ATP Newcomer of the Year in 2018.  He is seeded 27th and ranked a career-high twenty-nine.  He is apt to be helped by mentor Lleyton Hewitt, and all signs point to him only trending upward.  He has a good look at making the third round where he could set up a blockbuster clash with Nadal that is sure to have fans buzzing.

Simona Halep

The women's side could open the door to a number of dark horses if there is yet an early culling of the seeds, but it is still tempting to side with a couple of former Number 1 players.  As their lack of a seed would suggest, Venus Williams and Victoria Azarenka have not done a ton of late to instill confidence, and yet there remains a sense that they could flip the switch at any time.  Williams was in the final here in 2017, but she is in the tougher quarter with both Simona Halep and sister Serena.  Azarenka could have Naomi Osaka lurking in the third round, but if she can get there and through that, she is in an area of the draw where she could make some headway.  She is a two-time champion at this event as well, so there is hardly a more fitting venue for her to finally get her game back on track.

Of course, no set of predictions would be complete without also taking a look at those players likely to leave Melbourne early.  A popular pick for this dubious distinction is John Isner, as the big-serving American has looked rusty.  A higher seed that looks vulnerable for an early upset though is fourth seed Alexander Zverev.  The German does not have a particularly difficult draw to begin his campaign, but his previous overabundant lack of success at the majors still haunts him as far as the pundits are concerned.  Combine that with the minor injury he brought to Melbourne and his injury scare on the practice courts this week, and there is definitely a question mark around Zverev.  There is also a question mark around top seed Simona Halep on the women's side.  She lost her opening match to Ashleigh Barty in Sydney earlier this week in what was her first match since October.  She does not have a coach in her corner either, and she is facing the dangerous Kaia Kanepi – who dismissed the Romanian at the US Open – in the first round. 

These are just a few of the players to watch as the Australian Open gets underway.  Only time will tell how the fortune of these players will pan out in the end but regardless of how accurate or inaccurate they may be, it should all be entertaining to watch unfold.