For each day of the 2014 Australian Open, ATP columnist Nick Nemeroff will choose key matches to watch and offer insights on how they might unfold.

Ernests Gulbis vs. Juan Monaco

Coming into last year’s Australian Open, Juan Monaco was ranked world No. 12 and had just come off a career-best season in 2012, having won four titles and 40 matches. 2013 was less kind to the feisty Argentine, who managed to record only 25 wins and one title. His inconsistent patches in 2013 led to a significant drop in the rankings. Monaco enters this year’s tournament ranked 42nd in the ATP.

In January of last year, Ernests Gulbis’ ranking fell to as low as No. 138. The always controversial yet entertaining Latvian did not play in last year’s Australian Open. Under the tutelage of Austrian Gunther Bresnik, Gulbis has ascended into the top 25 and is the 23rd seed in Melbourne. In 2013, Gulbis racked up titles in Delray Beach and St. Petersburg.

Monaco is one of the most dangerous unseeded players in the tournament and surely someone Gulbis was not happy to see appear next to his name in the draw. In addition, Gulbis holds a 1-3 record against Monaco, including a straight-sets loss at the 2010 Australian Open. Their last meeting came on Monaco’s beloved clay in Monte Carlo, which the Argentine took in three sets.

Gulbis is a considerable favorite in this match and will benefit from courts that are reported to be playing faster than in 2013. Monaco’s defensive, counterpunching style of play is much more suited to a slower clay court. He’ll be trying to withstand the power that Gulbis possesses off his serve and off the ground. Monaco would be wise to direct the action to Gulbis’s eccentric forehand and keep away from the Latvian’s excellent two-handed backhand.

Prediction: Gulbis in four sets

Ivo Karlovic vs. Ivan Dodig

In a battle of two of Croatia’s finest players, Ivo Karlovic will look to serve his way past the lowest-seeded man in the draw, Ivan Dodig. 

Karlovic, who serves bombs on and off the court (follow him on twitter and you’ll understand what I mean), was sidelined for about three months last year with viral meningitis. He came back strong by winning a title in Bogota and recording a highly impressive three-set victory over Tomas Berdych in Basel. Karlovic also began 2014 with a bang, beating Berdych for the second time in as many meetings.

Dodig had a breakthrough year in 2013, battling his way to career-best results at the Australian Open, Wimbledon, and the US Open. While he excels more on the doubles court, he has proven to be quite a formidable force on the singles court as well.

The head-to-head in this matchup may come as a bit of a surprise with Dodig holding a 3-0 edge over Karlovic. All three of the matches they have played have come on hard courts, and all three matches have featured at least one tiebreak, a trend likely to continue in Melbourne. The longest match these two have played came in the first round of the 2011 Australian Open, which Dodig won in five sets.

This match should be an interesting and refreshing deviation from the typical baseline matches that we see every day on the ATP World Tour. Karlovic’s legendary serve and pedestrian groundstrokes makes moving forward a must. For Dodig, his doubles expertise and experience has allowed him to develop a much more competent and sophisticated attacking game.

Don’t expect a lot of grueling baseline rallies, especially if the temperatures rise into the 90s and 100s. Both men should expect a heavy stream of serve-and-volleys from the other, giving spectators a fascinating adventure back into the days of wooden rackets when heavy baseline play was considered unorthodox and imprudent.

This match could easily go three sets or five sets—there’s really no telling. A few points here and there could very well determine which way the tide shifts in this encounter.

Prediction: Karlovic in five sets

Marcos Baghdatis vs. Denis Istomin

2013 was an abysmal year for the charismatic Cypriot. Baghdatis went 15-22 in 2013 and is currently the 108th ranked player, his first time out of the top 100 and lowest ranking since September 28, 2009. By contrast, Istomin had a fairly successful 2013. He went 32-30 on the year and reached the fourth round of a major for the second time in his career.

Baghdatis has played only one match in 2014, a first-round loss to American Steve Johnson in Auckland. Istomin has played four matches, three in Sydney and one in Brisbane, that have included a win and a loss against Marin Cilic.

This has the potential of being a particularly lengthy encounter. Both men have clean mechanics and are tremendously reliable from the baseline. Expect a lot of cat-and-mouse maneuvering, but don’t be surprised if there is a fair amount of flashy shot-making as well.

Although Baghdatis has been on the decline, he did show some promising signs at the US Open, where he easily defeated Kevin Anderson and almost stretching Stanislas Wawrinka to five sets. As a former top-10 player and Australian Open finalist, he is not someone whom Istomin should take lightly.

Prediction: Istomin in five sets