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Australian Open ATP Day 4 Preview: Monfils, Raonic

Jan 21st 2015

Second-round ATP action at the Australian Open concludes on Thursday with a flurry of talented shot-makers seeking to build momentum before the level of competition rises.

Gael Monfils

Jerzy Janowicz v. Gael Monfils

For all of his talent, Jerzy Janowicz has only made it past the third round of a Grand Slam on one previous occasion. Janowicz has seen his Australian Open end in the third round in each of the last two years. Before he gets his opportunity to reach the second week Down Under for the first time, the Pole will have to deal with Frenchman Gael Monfils, who is coming off a monumental five-set victory over fellow Frenchman Lucas Pouille.

With Monfils seemingly trending toward a more balanced approach between defense and offense, it’ll be a tough ask for Janowicz to get through this one, considering the vast inconsistency with which he has played over the last year. Janowicz employs a high-risk, low-margin playing style that can be broken down against someone like Monfils who can force that one extra shot. Janowicz needs to remain somewhat patient because if he starts leaking unnecessary errors, Monfils will be content to stay on the defensive.

A good tactic for Monfils would be to move Janowicz left and right as much as possible. The Pole becomes increasingly impatient when stretched laterally, hitting harder and flatter than what is needed.

Monfils defeated Janowicz in their only previous encounter in the quarterfinals of Metz last fall.

Prediction: Monfils in four sets

Milos Raonic

Donald Young v. Milos Raonic

Donald Young provided Canadian Milos Raonic with a massive scare the last time they played in the second round of Basel last year. The American was able to stretch Raonic to a final-set tiebreak before eventually succumbing.

Raonic is a heavy favorite in this match, but Young has a game that matches up pretty well against Raonic’s weaknesses. For starters, being a lefty, Young can use his slice serve out wide, particularly on the ad-side, to attack Raonic’s susceptible backhand return. Young doesn’t possess the greatest lefty wide serve but he should be able to put himself on the offensive when using it.

It’s going to take quite the effort for Young to break Raonic, but with his quick hands, solid reaction skills, and a bit of luck, Young may find himself in Raonic’s service games. Young may also find success taking the ball early and coming to the net, rushing the big man and forcing him to come up with uncomfortable passing shots.

Look for Raonic to keep the points short and dictate with his forehand from the back of the court. Young’s second serve is a major weakness, and Raonic will be on top of it at the first opportunity.

Things could get interesting in this match, but look for Raonic to get the job done.

Prediction: Raonic in four sets