Although just two weeks of tournaments precede the Australian Open, they provide a preliminary sense of who is hot and who is not heading into the first major of 2015. Here is a look at whose stock to buy or sell.

Buy

5) Bernard Tomic

The Aussie has a great chance to at least reach the second week in his home major. He opens with journeyman Tobias Kamke and should be able to reach the third round by defeating Philipp Kohlschreiber, whom he just defeated in Sydney in comfortable fashion. Tomic will have a very winnable third-round matchup as well. The No. 11 seed Ernests Gulbis is struggling, and he may lose to Aussie Thanasi Kokkinakis in round one. If Kokkinakis or perhaps the big-serving Sam Groth reaches the third round, Tomic would certainly be favored, but he should get through against Gulbis as well. Tomic defeated Kokkinakis in Brisbane and has reached consecutive ATP quarterfinals. His best Australian Open result was the fourth round in 2012, and he can have a chance at the quarterfinals if he faces Tomas Berdych, although he has lost their two previous meetings.

4) Milos Raonic

Raonic reached the final in Brisbane in his warm-up tournament and pushed Roger Federer to three sets in that final, coming up just short. The Canadian No. 1 has a great chance to reach his first career major quarterfinal on hard courts in Australia. Julien Benneteau is his toughest possible opponent through the first three rounds, and Gael Monfils, or perhaps the big hitting Jerzy Janowicz or Juan Martin del Potro, are slated to stand in his way in the round of 16. Monfils has had success against Raonic before, but he may not be entirely healthy. If the Canadian’s first serve percentage can stay up, he should do well and set up a quarterfinal meeting with Novak Djokovic.

3)  David Ferrer

Ferrer played some of the best tennis he has played in quite some time when he took the title in Doha two weeks ago. The two-time Australian Open semifinalist, who most recently made the semifinals in 2013, should not have any trouble reaching at least the round of 16. Ferrer will not face anyone more difficult than Gilles Simon through the first three rounds, and Simon has a knee injury. The big test for him will come against Kei Nishikori in the round of 16, unless Nishikori gets ousted in the first three rounds. Ferrer has defeated Kei at the Australian Open before, and the outdoor hard-court meetings between them are tied at 2-2. That said, Nishikori has won their last four meetings overall, all of which took place last year. That was a career year for Nishikori and one of the worst years for Ferrer in recent history. If Ferrer has recaptured his earlier form, he should have enough to beat the Japanese No. 1, who will have a lot more pressure on his shoulders than Ferrer. In the quarterfinals, Stan Wawrinka is favored to await him in a highly anticipated clash.

2) Stan Wawrinka

The defending Australian Open champion won the Chennai warm-up tournament, just as he did last year, and he has little danger in his section of the draw until the quarterfinals. Only the likes of Vasek Pospisil and Jarkko Nieminen are set to stand in his way. I expect an in-form Wawrinka, motivated to defend his title, to cruise through the first few rounds and then have a difficult test against either Ferrer or Nishikori in the quarterfinals. Wawrinka has won his last three meetings against Ferrer, and their hard-court meetings against each other are split 2-2. Against Nishikori, he is 2-1 overall but lost to him in the quarterfinals of the US Open last fall in a very competitive five-setter. Both matches will be difficult, but with Wawrinka matching up well, he has a strong chance to reach the semifinals and a third straight Australian Open meeting with world No. 1 Novak Djokovic.

1) Andy Murray

Murray Is 24-6 in ATP tournament matches going back to the US Open last fall, and his form has steadily been trending upward since he came back from back surgery at the start of last season. Murray has had some of his best Grand Slam success at the Australian Open, having reached the final three previous times, all since 2010. He is undefeated in singles matches in 2015, having performed well in both the Hopman Cup and Abu Dhabi exhibitions. Murray could get a tough test against Martin Klizan in round three, with Klizan an in-form and dangerous competitor. But this matchup favors as a solid defensive player and counterpuncher against an aggressive player who tends to overhit at times. In the round of 16, Murray is set up to do battle with Grigor Dimitrov, or perhaps another possible dark horse to reach the second week, David Goffin.

Either way, Murray should be favored, since he has defeated Dimitrov before, and neither Dimitrov nor Goffin has been in good recent form compared to him one. Murray will have a chance to defeat Roger Federer in the quarterfinals, since he has before at the Australian Open. From there, a match against Rafael Nadal, Tomas Berdych, or another player, looks very winnable in the semifinals, so a surprise finals appearance is plausible.

Sell:

5) Tommy Robredo

Robredo suffered an abductor tear in Auckland and pulled out of that tournament. The former Australian Open quarterfinalist doesn’t have a difficult draw, but he will still be lucky to get out of the first round against Edouard Roger-Vasselin. Mikhail Kukushkin or Ivo Karlovic should take him out in one of the next two rounds though, since the No. 18 seed doesn’t seem prepared to make much noise Down Under.

4) Ernests Gulbis

Gulbis has never made it past the second round at the Australian Open, his worst major overall, and it appears unlikely he will do any better this time. The  No. 11 seed has a difficult match against young Aussie wildcard Thanasi Kokkinakis, who will have the home crowd’s support against a top-15 player. Gulbis played poorly in his warm -up tournament in Auckland, falling in three sets to Jiri Vesely, a player ranked well below him. If Kokkinakis doesn’t defeat him, Aussie Sam Groth probably will wear him down with the big serve.

3) Feliciano Lopez

Feliciano Lopez hasn’t won a match in 2015 and has been struggling recently. His opening matchup against USTA wild card Denis Kudla could doom him to a round one exit. Lopez has lost to lower-ranked players Richard Gasquet, Jordan Thompson, and Aljaz Bedene in 2015, and Kudla could become his fourth loss this season to a player ranked below him. The American has enough ability if he can keep himself composed over a best-of-five match to pull off the upset. Even if Lopez wins, he probably won’t get past Monfils, Janowicz, or del Potro in the third round.

2) Nick Kyrgios

Kyrgios is coming off a shoulder injury, and although hopes are high for the breakthrough Aussie in his home major, expectations this time need to be toned down. Kyrgios dropped a three-setter to Jerzy Janowicz in his only tournament warm-up match in Sydney, and he complained his shoulder still isn’t feeling healthy. He's in Roger Federer’s section, but instead of a possible fourth round meeting with the Swiss legend, Kyrgios is more likely to be taken out by Ivo Karlovic in round two. Karlovic appears to be playing well at the moment, and Kyrgios tends to struggle to read the serves of big servers.

1) Rafael Nadal

Nadal has losses to non-superstars Michael Berrer, Martin Klizan, Borna Coric, Dustin Brown, Nick Kyrgios, and Feliciano Lopez since he won the 2014 French Open. He hasn’t recorded a top-15 win since that tournament. Nadal has a great draw on paper, but he is playing very poor tennis at the moment and is well below the level of a top-five contender. The former Australian Open champion, who was a finalist last year, could suffer another shocking early-round defeat like he has in slams before.

All of that said, it’s still likely that Nadal reaches the quarterfinals unless he is extremely rusty or injured. Slumping Mikhail Youzhny, who may retire soon, is his round one opponent. His Wimbledon vanquisher Lukas Rosol, or perhaps dark horse Jan-Lennard Struff, could face him in round three.  With Rosol in such poor form at the moment, and Struff having never done anything of much magnitude, Nadal still probably makes the second week. He’s always done well against Gasquet, who appears to have a mental block against him. Kevin Anderson or Ricardas Berankis likely wouldn’t fare much better either, but Tomas Berdych, who has struggled against Nadal for over seven years and has a mental block against him as well, could finally oust him in the quarterfinals. If 34-year-old career journeyman Michael Berrer and teenager Borna Coric can beat Nadal on a hard court, Berdych, who has more ability in every facet of the game, surely can.