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ATP Stock Watch: Shanghai Edition

Oct 5th 2014

The pinnacle of the men’s Asian swing, the Shanghai Rolex Masters, starts overnight on Sunday with most of the big names participating. Some players are finding their form this fall, while others appear ready for the season to come to a conclusion.

Buy:

5: Joao Sousa

The Portugese No. 1 has had a strong fall swing thus far, reaching the final in Metz after scoring quality wins over Ivan Dodig and Gael Monfils. He also lost a competitive contest with Marin Cilic in Beijing. This may appear to be an unusual selection, but Sousa appears be healthy and he fights for every point, rarely giving up in matches. He opens with Juan Monaco, who rarely shows his former top-15 form, and should get Milos Raonic in round 2. It’s very unlikely he will defeat Raonic, but he will give it his best shot, and the Canadian may be fatigued, so it’s worth watching.

Tommy Robredo

4: Tommy Robredo

Robredo played very well in Shenzhen, reaching the final, and he also played a competitive match in Beijing with John Isner, falling in three sets after failing to convert match points. The veteran Spaniard has had two heartbreaking close losses, the other coming in the Shenzhen final to Andy Murray, but with two wins over Andreas Seppi and a quality win over Santiago Giraldo this fall, he still appears to be playing well. Robredo hasn’t lost early in a tournament since Winston-Salem before the US Open, and post Wimbledon he sports a quality 16-9 record. If he can get past Kevin Anderson in round 2, he will have a chance at beating Novak Djokovic again in the third round, just as he did in Cincinnati earlier this season.

3: Andy Murray

Murray is making a late push to make the World Tour Finals, which is another home tournament for him since it takes place in London. He is making the most of the fact that he has no points to defend this fall and earned his first title of the year in Shenzhen, overcoming Robredo in a thrilling three-set final. Murray continued that great form in Beijing, earning quality wins over Jerzy Janowicz and Marin Cilic, before falling to Novak Djokovic in the semifinals. All of this is a great testament not only to his improving technical play but also to his stamina, given the grueling stretch he has played. Now, the two-time Shanghai champion has a reasonable path to the quarterfinals for a rematch with Djokovic, needing to only beat a qualifier, Janowicz again, and possibly a slumping David Ferrer in round 3.

2: Milos Raonic

Raonic has been fantastic all season, currently enjoying a 45-14 overall record in 2014. His consistency has caused him to be under the radar, and he recently reached the final in Tokyo. Raonic is seeking to extend his streak of no exits before the quarterfinals in hard-court Masters tournaments this year, having reached that round at Indian Wells, Miami, Toronto, and Cincinnati. The Canadian and his fantastic serve will get Sousa or Monaco first in Shanghai, then perhaps Ernests Gulbis or Ivan Dodig in round 3 and probably Rafael Nadal in the quarterfinals. With Nadal still finding his form back on tour, Raonic will have perhaps his best chance yet to defeat the world No. 2. The match will take place on a surface he prefers, hard courts, and with Nadal coming off a bad loss to Martin Klizan in Beijing the week prior. If he gets past Nadal, Marin Cilic or Tomas Berdych should await in the semifinals, or perhaps Stan Wawrinka. Raonic might well reach his second Masters 1000 final.

Kei Nishikori

1: Kei Nishikori

Nishikori is another player who has had a tremendous season and continued his fantastic play into the fall. A maiden Grand Slam finalist at the US Open, he is an overall 50-12 in 2014, already well having surpassed his previous efforts. He is 15-1 in his last 16 matches, having won titles in Kuala Lumpur and Tokyo. This means he would be bidding for a third straight ATP crown in Shanghai. His path in Shanghai is through a qualifier or Jack Sock, and then likely Grigor Dimitrov in round 3. Nishikori has the edge against Dimitrov, but his stamina and ability to hold up long-term has always been one of his weaknesses, so getting past that match may be too much of a challenge. If he does, he should get a huge match against Roger Federer in the quarterfinals.

Sell:

5: Alex Dolgopolov

Dolgopolov is coming off of a knee injury and was crushed in his first match back in Tokyo by Jack Sock.  He opens against Roberto Bautista Agut, a difficult opponent who played a good match against Gilles Simon in Tokyo, only to surrender after holding match points. Although he’s a top-tier player and can catch fire at any time, he doesn’t appear to be much of a threat at the moment.

4: Ernests Gulbis

Gulbis retired with an injury in Beijing while trailing Martin Klizan 2-6 0-3, and he’s really struggled since his French Open breakthrough, compiling just a .500 record in that period. He also fell to Julien Benneteau in Kuala Lumpur, and he seems lost at the moment, although he’s ranked in the top 15.

Richard Gasquet

3: Richard Gasquet

Gasquet, who has been bothered by injuries this season, has not played particularly well since reaching the semifinals in Washington, and his ranking has been dropping. He is unseeded in Shanghai and is now ranked outside the top 20. He suffered a bad loss to a faded Juan Monaco in Shenzhen, played poorly in Davis Cup for France, and was run off the court by Nadal, who is coming off injury himself, in Beijing, surrendering a meek bagel in the second set of that contest. Gasquet is in danger of falling to his countryman Jeremy Chardy, who played well in Tokyo, in the opening round. The French veteran seems ready for this season to be over so he can regroup and focus on doing better next year.

2: Feliciano Lopez

Lopez appeared to be in good form earlier this summer. But after being drubbed by Berdych in Beijing, he is in danger of losing early to a qualifier in Shanghai. Otherwise, Nadal should easily get past him in round 2, since the world No. 20 doesn’t appear to be playing near his best right now.

1: David Ferrer

Ferrer has shockingly lost two straight opening matches. After being dominated by Viktor Troicki in Shenzhen, barely bothering to return the Serb’s serve, he lost to Marcel Granollers in three sets. Ferrer had previously controlled the matchups with his countryman. He has been in decline all season, and he seems worn down. Opponents are taking advantage of the fact he has few natural weapons to threaten them. It is quite possible that Ferrer will drop out of the top 10 next year, which is understandable given his age. He has a variety of losses to much lower-ranked opponents on the season, 10 of his 19 losses coming against non-top 10 players, and it appears to be getting worse, not better, as the season grinds along and takes its toll.