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ATP Stock Watch: Men Rising and Falling in Miami

Mar 20th 2014

Fresh off the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells, here is a look at who to buy and sell for the next Masters 1000 event in sunny Miami, as this is one of the rare weeks on the ATP tour where most of the top players play back-to-back tournaments.

BUY

5: Radek Stepanek

The veteran serve-and-volley specialist, Stepanek has had near upsets of Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal in back-to-back tournaments in Dubai and Indian Wells. Despite the straight set second round losses to each, the Czech showed he could still compete with the elite in the process. He will be happy to see a step down in competition based upon his draw this time in Miami, having already defeated a struggling Daniel Brands and will look to next take out Andreas Seppi, before meeting defending finalist David Ferrer. Though Stepanek is 0-3 against Ferrer on the outdoor hard courts, the Spaniard is coming off of an injury and an upset is a possibility. Stepanek has a chance to sneak his way into the round of 16 with some quality play, as he has reached the round of 16 in Miami six out of nine appearances.

4: Roberto Bautista Agut

Roberto Bautista Agut

Bit of a late bloomer, Roberto Bautista Agut comes off of a fourth round showing in Indian Wells that included a clinical upset of Tomas Berdych, and he has had a career year thus far as he continues to rise up the rankings. The Spaniard with the gifted forehand will need to beat a qualifier and then Jerzy Janowicz, the No. 19 seed, to reach the third round where a meeting with 14th-seeded Fabio Fognini should await. If he gets past Fognini and reaches the round 16 for the second straight week, he will likely face Rafael Nadal, his countryman in their first meeting. With the way Nadal struggled in Indian Wells, Bautista Agut has the talent and mettle to upset him like Alexandr Dolgopolov did, and he is certainly one to watch.

3: Milos Raonic

Milos Raonic

(Photo: BNP Paribas Open)

In his first tournament back from injury, Raonic reached the quarterfinals in Indian Wells, a showing that included a mild upset of Andy Murray in the round of 16. He has had Masters success before on hard courts, and his first big test will likely be a third round meeting against Gael Monfils. If he gets past that, a weak section featuring the struggling Vasek Pospisil as the only seed after Juan Martin del Potro withdrew, should allow him to reach the quarterfinals in consecutive weeks again. Nadal, or perhaps Bautista Agut or even Fognini should await, and though he has never been able to do much damage against Nadal, if his form is not up to par, upsets are always possible. Given that his game was still most likely rusty at Indian Wells, Raonic's game will only be improving in Miami.

2: Tommy Haas

Tommy Haas returned to form in Indian Wells, as he reached the third round and had a routine win against Kei Nishikori before losing 4 and 4 to eventual finalist Roger Federer. With Rendy Lu a potential stumbling block in round two and then the supremely in-form Dolgopolov likely awaiting in round three, Haas does not have an easy draw. Should he rise to the occasion in those matches, he should be able to do one better and reach the round of 16. From there though Marin Cilic, or even Stanislas Wawrinka, may doom him, as the Swiss was a semifinalist in Miami last year.

1: Marin Cilic

Marin Cilic

(Photo: Mauricio Paiz for Tennis View Magazine)

Marin Cilic has been hot all year and he improved his record to 20-5 on the season with a third round showing in Indian Wells, where he lost to eventual champion Novak Djokovic in three sets. He knocked off Tommy Robredo for his best win in Indian Wells, and his draw is much more forgiving in Miami than it was in the California desert. A potentially struggling Stan Wawrinka in round three, who he has beaten twice and lost once on an outdoor hard court, would be next followed by either Tommy or Dolgopolov in the round of 16. Cilic has split clay court meetings with Dolgopolov and is 2-2 against Haas, leaving both potential match-ups more or less toss-ups. Given his form however, he should move on and get Tomas Berdych or John Isner in the quarterfinals, both of which are beatable. He’s 0-2 on hard courts against Berdych in his career, but 3-0 against Isner on the same surface. Nadal would then be the potential semifinalist to beat, where their record stands at 1-1 on outdoor hard, their last meeting coming in 2011. If Nadal is out of sorts though, Cilic could find himself in the final and vying for another title for the year.

SELL

5: Stanislas Wawrinka

Stanislas Wawrinka was bounced out meekly in three sets by Kevin Anderson in the third round of Indian Wells, and though a lot of the reason for that loss may have been rust from a long layoff in tournament play since January, his draw is not the most forgiving as the No. 3 seed will probably be bounced by Cilic in the third round. Given his three ranking, this would be an early exit. But his history in Miami is not favorable as he has never advanced past the round of 16, and lost his first match in Miami last year.

4: Nicolas Almagro

Almagro didn’t play Indian Wells, and returns from injury this week in Miami. The Spaniard is on a three-match losing streak and will face either Sam Querrey or Sergiy Stakhovsky in round two. Should he avoid the upset, in-form Indian Wells semifinalist John Isner awaits in round three assumingly, and though he is 2-1 against Isner, he lost to him last year and they have never met on hard courts, giving Isner a solid edge at advancing and bouncing the Spaniard early.

3: Richard Gasquet

Richard Gasquet

Gasquet got crushed by Fernando Verdasco in his second match in Indian Wells, and he could go out in the third round again, or even earlier in Miami. He should face surprise Indian Wells third rounder Alejandro Gonzalez in round two, a qualifier being the other option, and assuming he wins, the in form Indian Wells quarterfinalist Kevin Anderson should be his next opponent. He is 2-0 on hard courts against Anderson but those were close meetings and given the form difference, Anderson will likely advance and send Gasquet off early to the clay court season. Gasquet is defending semifinal points here and it would be a disappointing exit.

2: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga

Tsonga has been playing below top 10 level all season and he suffered a bad loss to Julien Benneteau in his first Indian Wells match. He has a great draw on paper, with struggling players like Nikolay Davydenko or Adrian Mannarino and Philipp Kohlschreiber in his seed line and then probably a beatable Andy Murray in round 4, but I think he will suffer another surprise defeat early, to Davydenko or Kohlschreiber. He’s never met the Russian on outdoor hard but has a good head-to-head against him, and is 2-0 against the German on hard court and has a large head-to-head edge overall but it will be feast or famine for him in Miami.

1: Vasek Pospisil

Pospisil has lost three straight tournament matches upon his return to the tour from a back injury, and they have been abysmal losses, 2 and 2 to Dolgopolov in Acapulco, 0 and 2 to Mikhail Kukushkin in Indian Wells, and a three-set loss to journeyman Benjamin Becker in the Irving Challenger. He’s seeded 27 and on paper has a great draw, but one has to predict he will lose to a qualifier in his first match, and if not, potentially Ryan Harrison in round three.