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ATP Roland Garros Day 2 Preview: Wawrinka, Nishikori

May 25th 2014

The reigning Australian Open champion and a new top-10 star hope to dodge the raindrops as the first round continues at Roland Garros on Monday.

Stanislas Wawrinka

Stanislas Wawrinka v. Guillermo Garcia-Lopez

All of the talk coming into the French Open has involved Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic. The rest of the field would be making a monumental mistake by letting Stanislas Wawrinka—the sole ATP Grand Slam winner in 2014—fly under the radar. The Swiss No. 1 and third overall seed has often said clay is his best surface.

He will be looking to back up that assertion in a big way as he opens his Roland Garros campaign Monday against Guillermo Garcia-Lopez. The Spaniard turned some heads in Monte Carlo after beating Tomas Berdych in three sets and taking a set off Novak Djokovic in the quarterfinals. Overall, Wawrinka leads the head-to-head 4-2 and won their most recent meeting on clay last year in the quarterfinals of Casablanca.

Wawrinka has experienced an uneven European clay court season. After defeating Roger Federer for the second time in his career to win the Monte Carlo Masters, Wawrinka lost in the second round of the Madrid Masters to Dominic Thiem and the third round of the Rome Masters to Tommy Haas. These results indicate that it will be critical for Wawrinka to elevate and stabilize his level of play throughout the fortnight.

This match should have a fair amount of hotly contested backhand-to-backhand rallies. Garcia-Lopez possesses a firm, consistent one-handed backhand that will surely need to be on cue to handle Wawrinka’s explosive one-handed artistry.

Depending on how Wawrinka plays, it would be surprising to see Garcia Lopez push this match beyond a third or a fourth set. This is one of those matchups where one player (Wawrinka) does just about everything better than the other (Garcia-Lopez). As a result, expect to see Wawrinka win his eighth consecutive Grand Slam match on Monday.

Prediction: Wawrinka in three sets

Kei Nishikori

Martin Klizan v. Kei Nishikori

The last time the tennis world saw Kei Nishikori, he was retiring from his first ever Masters 1000 final in Madrid against Rafael Nadal. Nishikori’s fragility has been an ongoing problem throughout his career, but despite all the injuries, the Japanese star has ascended to the top 10 of the ATP rankings.

His opponent, Martin Klizan, has been ranked as high as No. 26 in the world and is still picking up the pieces from a disastrous 2013 season that saw his ranking plummet below the top 100. Klizan scored a massive victory in Munich, coming through qualifying to win the title. This moved his ranking up nearly 50 spots and ensured him a berth in the French Open main draw.

Klizan and Nishikori have never played each other and will both be looking to begin their excursion through a tricky section of the draw. Assuming Nishikori’s health has returned to a functioning state, this matchup is not a favorable one for Klizan. He prefers to inflict damage upon his opponents with his forehand, a tactic that Nishikori will surely take away by frequently targeting Klizan’s liable backhand with pace and depth.

Nishikori is going to retrieve a lot of balls, get a lot of returns back into play, and generally making life for Klizan miserable. The Slovakian would have a much better chance of pulling off this upset on a quicker surface where his vicious forehand strikes would be better rewarded. Nishikori should have no troubles getting through this one in three or four sets.

Prediction: Nishikori in three sets

Robby Ginepri

The Americans

These previews usually cover only individual matches, but with so many Americans playing tomorrow, let’s take a look at the matches involving four of these men.

There’s not too much to say regarding Robby Ginepri’s first round match against Rafael Nadal. Ginepri enters the French Open as a 31-year-old qualifier who has only won 14 clay matches in his entire career. If Ginepri is somehow able to take down Nadal tomorrow, it would probably go down as the biggest upset in tennis history.

Journeyman Michael Russell will take on Colombian Alejandro Gonzalez in his opening match. While neither of these players overwhelm their opponents with sheer force, they are more than willing to play the role of backboard for a few hours. If you’re into five-set matches lasting more than three hours, this match may be the one for you.

Donald Young and Dudi Sela also will do battle tomorrow in Paris. Young and Sela have an abysmal combined 9-38 record in tour level matches on clay. Young has started to develop more of an all-court game this year and recorded two of his three career tour level victories on clay in Houston earlier this spring. Sela enters this match with a 6-25 record in tour level clay court matches, making clay his worst surface by a vast margin. Young’s lefty topspin forehand should give him a significant edge in this match, since Sela is one of the shortest players on tour and plays with a one-handed backhand.

Former Stanford standout Bradley Klahn won’t have the support of the French crowd behind him tomorrow as he takes on French wildcard Axel Michon. This match marks Michon’s first appearance in a tour level match, presenting Klahn with a wonderful chance to win his first main draw match at Roland Garros.

Predictions: Nadal in three sets, Gonzalez in five sets, Young in four sets, Klahn in four sets