Don't miss any stories Follow Tennis View

ATP Monte Carlo Draw Preview

Apr 13th 2015

The first of the three clay Masters 1000 events in 2015, and the third Masters 1000 overall, unfolds in the pristine Mediterranean principality of Monte Carlo. Here is a glimpse at what fans might expect this week.

Novak Djokovic

Novak Djokovic’s quarter:

The 2013 Monte Carlo Champion, Novak Djokovic, has been presented with an extremely favorable quarter. Let’s start with the fact that his section of the draw includes two qualifiers and a lucky loser. No other quarter of the draw has a lucky loser, nor does any other quarter have more than two qualifiers.

As far as seeded players are concerned, the other three seeded players in the quarter are Ernests Gulbis, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, and Marin Cilic. These three players have won a combined two matches the entire season, to give you an idea of how soft this quarter is. Gulbis is 1-7 on the season, while Tsonga and Cilic are both recently returning from injury. The other players of note in this quarter are Sam Querrey, David Goffin, and Bernard Tomic, none of which would appear to pose any legitimate threat to Djokovic on clay. Look for Djokovic to breeze right through this quarter to book a potential semifinal clash with Rafael Nadal.

Quarterfinal Prediction: Djokovic d. Goffin

Rafael Nadal’s quarter:

Rafael Nadal won Monte Carlo every year between 2005 and 2012. His dominance at this event surpassed even what he had done at the French Open, where of course he was defeated in 2009 by Robin Soderling.

Nadal’s reign was ended in 2013 by Novak Djokovic. In 2014, he was defeated by fellow Spaniard David Ferrer in the quarterfinals. It was Ferrer’s first win over Nadal on clay since 2004. This year, Ferrer and Nadal have been featured in a quarter that seems destined for an all-Spanish finish. Ferrer has an interesting second-round match against Quito champion and clay specialist Victor Estrella Burgos, who at the tender age of 34 is playing far and away the best tennis of his entire career. Nadal will open against one of two young guns in Lucas Pouille or Dominic Thiem and could see Martin Klizan or John Isner in the round of 16. Again, this is not a particularly strong quarter and anything but a Ferrer-Nadal quarterfinal would come as a surprise.

Quarterfinal Prediction: Nadal d. Ferrer

Milos Raonic’s quarter:

With Andy Murray and Kei Nishikori out of the draw, this quarter has opened up as the only section with no top-five players. Milos Raonic and Tomas Berdych will be licking their chops when they realize that they are also the only top-10 players in this section as well. Two definite sleepers in this quarter are Spaniards Tommy Robredo and 2014 Madrid semifinalist Roberto Bautista Agut. Outside of Robredo possibly testing Raonic and Bautista Agut troubling Berdych in the round of 16, it’s hard to see where Berdych and Raonic will be threatened here.

Quarterfinal Prediction:  Raonic d. Berdych

Roger Federer

Roger Federer’s quarter:

Fabio Fognini, Fernando Verdasco, Jerzy Janowicz, Borna Coric, Jiri Vesely, Juan Monaco, and Jeremy Chardy are all unseeded players in this extremely difficult quarter of the draw. Even the qualifiers in this section, Andrey Kuznetsov and Diego Schwartzman, could make some noise. The seeded players in this section, other than Federer, are 2014 Monte Carlo champion Stan Wawrinka, Grigor Dimitrov, and Gael Monfils.

It’s pretty shocking how much tougher this section is relative to the other three. Janowicz-Fognini, Verdasco-Dimitrov and Coric-Dolgopolov, are three opening-round matches and are arguably the three best opening-round matches in the entire draw. Potential third-round matches between Federer and Monfils and Wawrinka and Dimitrov would be quite the spectacle. Any possible quarterfinal match from those round of 16 matches would be fascinating ,with a rematch of last year’s final between Federer and Wawrinka being the desired outcome for most fans.

Out of the seeded players in this section, Federer has been in the best form. By contrast, Dimitrov and Wawrinka have been struggling big time as of late. Wawrinka has 1,000  points at stake this week, but the edge goes to Federer to reach the semifinals.

Quarterfinal Prediction: Federer d. Wawrinka