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ATP Indian Wells Draw Preview

Mar 14th 2015

The first Masters 1000 tournament of 2015 has just gotten underway at Indian Wells. With the men’s seeds about to start on Saturday, here is a quarter-by-quarter look at the brackets.

Novak Djokovic

Novak Djokovic’s quarter:

Defending champion and world No. 1 Novak Djokovic enters this year’s tournament as the top seed. Djokovic’s section of the draw includes Julien Benneteau, John Isner, Kevin Anderson, Marin Cilic, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, Bernard Tomic, and David Ferrer. Ferrer is red hot at the moment, coming off titles in Rio and Acapulco. Isner, a player who has beaten Djokovic on several previous occasions (including at Indian Wells in 2012), has been struggling of late and doesn’t appear to pose any imminent threat.

I would expect Djokovic to get through this quarter, although Ferrer may provide due resistance once the quarterfinals roll around.

One potential wildcard in this quarter is 2014 U. S. Open champion Marin Cilic. Cilic will be playing his first match of the 2015 season when he takes on Juan Monaco in the second round. As we saw in New York City last fall, Cilic’s A-game is tough to stop.

Semifinalist:  Novak Djokovic

Andy Murray’s quarter:

The possibility of a Fognini-Gulbis third-round match in this quarter should get everyone’s blood boiling. Gulbis has yet to win a match the entire year, and Fognini just lost Italy’s fifth rubber in Davis Cup last weekend, so if these two meet, we may see some fireworks.

Ryan Harrison, who just scored a huge win over Mardy Fish in the first round, will have a monumental test as he takes on world No. 5 Kei Nishikori.

Two other names to watch out for in this section of the draw are Adrian Mannarino and Pablo Cuevas. Mannarino has been playing some solid tennis in 2015 and over the last 12 months, Cuevas has soared to new heights and is now sitting at his career-high ranking of No. 23 in the world.

If it does happen, the potential quarterfinal matchup between Kei Nishikori and Andy Murray could prove to be one of the better matches of the entire tournament. The last time these two met was at the World Tour Finals at a point when Murray was not playing even close to his best tennis.

Semifinalist:  Kei Nishikori

Rafael Nadal’s quarter:

Under normal circumstances, Nadal would be expected to handle his quarter of the draw with ease, but given the way he’s been playing over the last six months, the Spaniard may be in for some serious tests throughout this tournament.

Potential third-round opponent Jeremy Chardy, fourth-round opponent Gilles Simon, and possible quarterfinal opponents Milos Raonic and Grigor Dimitrov all have games to beat Nadal, especially when he’s not performing at his peak.

This quarter of the draw is loaded with guys who can make a bang at any time. Simone Bolelli, Alexandr Dolgopolov, and Nick Kyrgios are all players who, on their day, can hit you right off the court before you realized what has happened.

The fact that these courts are being said to have high, slow bounces certainly favors Nadal, and because of that he’s the pick in this quarter of the draw.

Semifinalist:  Rafael Nadal

Roger Federer

Roger Federer’s quarter:

This is undoubtedly the all-Swiss quarter at Indian Wells with Stan Wawrinka and Roger Federer as the top two seeds.

On paper, this appears to be the strongest quarter, although it must be said the four sections of the draw are pretty evenly balanced. A potential third-round match against Federer’s Australian Open conqueror, Andreas Seppi, would surely present itself as a highly intriguing encounter.

Two highly compelling potential third-round matches to look out for in this quarter are Tomas Berdych v. Ivo Karlovic and Gilles Muller v. Roberto Bautista Agut.  The winner of the former match would likely play Wawrinka in the fourth round, and the winner of the latter match would likely play Federer in the fourth round.

If Federer and Wawrinka end up meeting in the quarterfinals, it would be a tough one to project, but in these types of conditions, Wawrinka may be primed to pull off the upset.

Semifinalist:  Stan Wawrinka

Final:  Novak Djokovic vs. Stan Wawrinka

Champion:  Novak Djokovic