Don't miss any stories Follow Tennis View

AO Day 7 Preview: Nishikori-Tsonga, Sharapova-Bencic

Jan 23rd 2016

The field has been whittled down to 16, which means the business end of the Australian Open is set to get underway.  Consequently, there are bound to be no easy matches, a fact of which Kei Nishikori and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga are all too aware.  Theirs is the most intriguing of the round of 16 matches in the top half of the draw, and it could prove to be quite the battle as they vie for the right to advance to the last eight.

Kei Nishikori

On paper, it is easy to see why this has the potential to be a gem of a match.  Nishikori and Tsonga are practically next to each other in the rankings at No. 7 and No. 10 respectively.  Each man has been to a major final and logged multiple second-week appearances at the majors.  They both enjoy playing on hard courts and have reputations as competitors whose playing styles are inherently fun to watch.  And perhaps most promising of all, if their two previous meetings at a major are any indication, this one could go the distance.

In total, Nishikori and Tsonga have met six times, and it is Nishikori who leads their rivalry 4-2.  Nishikori also won their sole meeting in Melbourne, which was a five-set thriller that occurred in this same round four years ago.  In addition to a winning record against the Frenchman, Nishikori may also draw confidence form his stellar personal history at the Australian Open, where he has reached the second week in each of the last four years.  He is clearly not a bad bet to defend his quarterfinal showing from last year and maybe break new ground at the first major in 2016.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga

Of course, there is also ample reason to believe in Tsonga's chances of causing the mild upset and moving one step closer to Australian Open glory.  The Frenchman started off 2016 in better form with his semifinal run in Auckland, and despite his losing record against the seventh seed, he did win their last meeting, which came in five sets last year at Roland Garros.  Melbourne is also the site of the ninth seed's lone trip to a Grand Slam final, which came back in 2008.  Furthermore, Tsonga has frequented the quarterfinals and semifinals of the majors more often than Nishikori, so a case could be made that he is less likely to feel the nerves in the tight moments.

The mental component will play a large role in determining the outcome of this match, but the execution of their game plans will as well.  Oddly enough, in spite of the differences in their physical frames, Nishikori and Tsonga actually share many similarities.  Both are very quick about the court and aim to control rallies with their forehands.  They are each aggressive-minded and unafraid to rip winners when they see the opportunity to do so.  Tsonga is arguably in the better position to take the offensive.  He is the bigger of the two with greater firepower, and his net play is superior to the seventh seed's.  But Nishikori is placed better to rely on his defense when he needs it.  He is faster off the mark and has the more solid backhand.  In the end, it is going to come down to who is able to more consistently protect his weaknesses and utilize his strengths.

So which player will that be?  History would lean towards Nishikori, given that he leads their rivalry.  He is a bit more consistent, is the higher-ranked player for a reason, and given the setting, is likely to enjoy more crowd support.  All that logic aside, however, predicting a Tsonga victory feels right.  He is starting to play some inspired tennis now, and he is exceptionally dangerous when he gets in that kind of mood.  Plus, the men's draw may have thus far held up better than the women's, but this has been a tournament of upsets.  Why not add one more to the mix?

Maria Sharapova

The fourth round of the 2016 Australian Open has arrived, and a record number of the women's seeds have gone crashing out along the way.  But some seeds managed to escape the carnage to this point, and among them are Maria Sharapova and Belinda Bencic.  They have admirably lived up to their seedings and will battle it out to decide who has the privilege of moving on to the quarterfinals.

Sharapova is a familiar face at this stage of a major.  She has won five major singles titles, including this tournament in 2008.  She has also been remarkably consistent Down Under.  Sharapova has made the second week here in each of the last five years and twice reached the final during that stretch.  She is a former No. 1 and has earned a reputation as one of the fiercest competitors in the sport.

Sharapova's opponent, Bencic, does not boast the same résumé as the Russian, but she has quickly developed a reputation as one of the most promising prospects of the next generation.  The Swiss teenager picked up the first two titles of her career last season, one of which came at the Premier Five event in Toronto, where she handed Serena Williams one of only three losses the American would suffer in 2015.  Eager to avoid a sophomore slump and build on that success, Bencic will be ready to go when she takes to the court against the fifth seed. 

No one would question Bencic's desire to cause the upset this Sunday, but her ability to manage the pressure will be the primary key to her pulling it off.  It is already clear what to expect from Sharapova.  She is a dogged competitor, who fights until the very last ball and has an exemplary three-set record to prove it.  She also owns an exceptional short-term memory, so she does not allow doubts and frustration to have a lingering effect on her game.  And of course, Sharapova has played these types of matches so often that they are old hat. 

Belinda Bencic

Bencic by contrast is more of a wild card in this area.  She has only advanced beyond this round once, and that came two years ago at the US Open.  As evidenced by her noteworthy results, she knows she can defeat the top players, but it has by no means become routine.  Additionally, when things start to get rocky, she has shown herself to still be susceptible to bouts of anger that have a negative impact on her level of play. At times, she appears to be struggling with the pressure to back up what she did last season.  She is going to have to temper those emotions against Sharapova, since if the Russian senses any mental weakness in her opposition, she will dig her heels in even more and make her pay.

Whereas Bencic needs to focus on managing the moment, Sharapova's path to victory lies in the successful implementation of her powerful game.  Bencic is a well-rounded player with decent variety in her game.  She also goes for her shots and stays relatively close up on the baseline.  That said, Sharapova’s arsenal has her better positioned to control the outcome of this match.  Every facet of her game is more powerful than the Swiss'.  The trick for Sharapova is that she cannot afford lapses in her play, particularly one like she had against Lauren Davis in the last round.  Bencic is a big step up from Sharapova's opposition thus far, and she is a lot more likely to punish the Russian for a dip in play.

Suffice it to say, this should be an entertaining match with a lot to watch for.  Since Sharapova was dealing with an injury and a lack of match play, it has almost a 50-50 feel to it.  Bencic has already proven she is capable of defeating a player of Sharapova's caliber, and given the number of upsets to have plagued this event already, it would seem almost fitting if she were to advance at the fifth seed's expense.  At the end of the day, however, it is hard to bet against Sharapova, specifically at a major.  She is so hard to put away, and she has so frequently found ways to win even when nowhere near her best.  It may be close, but Sharapova has to be the player favored to book a spot in the last eight.