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AO Day 5 Preview: Kyrgios-Berdych, Mladenovic

Jan 21st 2016

The third round of the Australian Open has arrived, which means seeds are beginning to collide and the excitement level has gone up a few notches.  With the top half of the men's draw nearly holding true to form, there are a plethora of intriguing matches on the docket.  Of those, one that will be of particular interest to the home crowd is the third-round clash between Nick Kyrgios and Tomas Berdych.

Nick Kyrgios

Kyrgios and Berdych are men currently on opposite ends of the spectrum in terms of their careers.  The young Australian is still in the early stages of his, but he has already made headlines for good reasons and bad.  Many analysts agree he is one of the brightest talents of the next generation, and victories over the likes of Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal have only fueled that belief.  He plays with no fear and unquestionably has the weapons that could take him to the top.

Like Kyrgios, Berdych is an exceptionally talented player well respected throughout the tennis world.  He has garnered a number of big wins, including victories over all of the members of the Big Four.  He has been a mainstay in the top 10 and climbed as high as No. 4 last season.  He is frequently in the conversation as one of the most talented players to have never won a major, and now aged 30, he knows his window for doing so is quickly closing.

As loaded as the top half of the draw remains, it is difficult to envision Berdych breaking through for his first major title in Melbourne.  There are many dangerous players in his path, starting with Kyrgios.  The 29th seed is an explosive player who is unafraid to rip the ball from either wing.  He makes good headway with his serve, and he will not hesitate to tee off on the return.  He is a showman and a shot-maker, which can get him into trouble but also makes him unsettling to play.  He regularly looks to be aggressive, is decent up at the net, and has the tools to dictate his share of the rallies.

Like Kyrgios, the sixth seed boasts ample power.  In fact, he probably hits bigger than the Australian on a regular basis on both the ground and the serve.  Berdych prefers to control points with his forehand, but his backhand is also a lethal stroke. Furthermore, although his movement is not as nimble as that of Kyrgios, the Czech moves remarkably well for his size and is unlikely to find himself out of position too frequently.  Berdych is also much more workmanlike in his approach to the game, to the extent that he can be almost mechanical out there on the court.  He has learned to play the percentages and better recognize when an opportunity arises to go for a winner.  As a result, he may not be as entertaining to watch, but this approach has served him well.

Tomas Berdych

Berdych's approach may not be as exciting as Kyrgios', but it could be a key component in helping him win this match.  Granted, Kyrgios can be difficult to handle when he is playing inspired tennis. He is a competitor who loves the big occasions and grand stages, and with the home crowd cheering him on from the stands, he is apt to find an endless source of inspiration.  But just as easily as Kyrgios can play breathtaking tennis, he can quickly fly off the handle when things start to go wrong.  Berdych, by contrast, has learned to eliminate the majority of the peaks and valleys in his level of play.  He is also a guy who has been to the semifinals of all four majors and consistently makes Week 2 of the slams.  That kind of experience is bound to count for something, especially at the crunch times.

The potential is certainly there for this to be a blockbuster third-round encounter, and each combatant has a realistic look at advancing.  Kyrgios has collected bigger scalps than Berdych and fears no opponent or moment, but Berdych must be the player slightly favored in this contest.  He is less prone to mental dips and overall is the more consistent player.  It may be close, but that should be enough to get him through to the round of 16.  

Daria Gavrilova

It is no secret that the women's draw at this year's Australian Open has been rocked by upsets.  Numerous seeds have fallen by the wayside, leaving room for less known players to step up and achieve something special that they would have barely thought probable at the tournament's start.  Daria Gavrilova is hopeful that she will be the player to take advantage of the situation.  She added to the decimation of the seeds with her dismissal of Petra Kvitova in the last round, and she will be looking to add another upset to the mix when she takes on Kristina Mladenovic for a berth in the fourth round.

Despite the differences in their sizes and playing styles, there is not much to choose between these young rising stars.  They are only a year apart with Mladenovic the elder of the pair at 22.  The Frenchwoman is also the higher-ranked of the two at No. 30, but Gavrilova is not far behind at No. 39.  Neither has yet secured her first singles title, and neither has ever been to this stage in Melbourne.  At least one of them is going to get to continue her journey into uncharted territory, but who that is will be determined by who executes her game better and successfully manages the magnitude of the occasion.

When it comes to their respective games, these two are night and day.  Mladenovic is by far the taller player in this match, giving her a decisive edge on her serve in terms of both the speed and the angle she gets on it.  She is the more powerful ball-striker as well and hits fairly flat from both wings.  Her greatest strength, however, lies in the forecourt.  The Frenchwoman is a Grand Slam mixed doubles and women's doubles champion, and she currently holds a doubles ranking of No. 9.  She can play with power and touch when she approaches the net and cuts an intimidating figure when she works her way there.

It is imperative for Gavrilova that she work hard to keep the Frenchwoman pinned back from the net and avoid falling too far behind the baseline herself.  Thankfully, in spite of her smaller size, Gavrilova actually does a good job of staying in offensive mode and constantly looking for her opportunity to go on the attack.  She says she models her game after the great Martina Hingis, which means she is regularly probing for weaknesses and aiming to outwit her opponent.  But what may ultimately seal a victory for her on Friday is her foot speed and consistency.  Mladenovic has traditionally been a streaky player, and Gavrilova's ability to keep making her hit that extra ball could be problematic for the 28th seed.

Kristina Mladenovic

The mental pressure of this battle could prove more problematic for Mladenovic than it does for Gavrilova as well.  Unlike Gavrilova, Mladenovic can say she has been to the second week of a major at least once, thanks to her run to the quarterfinals last summer in New York, but this is hardly more familiar territory for her than it is for the Australian.  And although both women have already collected some significant wins in their young careers, Mladenovic has a history of faltering in the spotlight. She has to deal with greater pressure as the seeded player, and her streaky play leaves her more vulnerable to prolonged dips in form when she encounters any hiccups.  Gavrilova, who plays less high-risk tennis and exhibits a more positive attitude, is not as susceptible to those obstacles.  

It is hard to predict what will transpire in this encounter.  So much is dependent upon whether Mladenovic's game is on or off, since she is the player better equipped to control what happens on the court.  That being said, look for the mild upset here.  Gavrilova is developing a reputation as a giant killer and the aura of a rising star.  Couple that with home-crowd support, and you have to like her odds of getting across the finish line first.