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AO Day 2 Preview: Nadal-Verdasco, Venus

Jan 18th 2016

Recapture the magic.  It is a phrase and a notion that many people are familiar with and one that numerous tennis fans sincerely hope will apply to the first-round match between Rafael Nadal and Fernando Verdasco.  These two met in the semifinals of the Australian Open seven years ago and produced a five-set thriller that people still talk about today.  If they are able to put on a show half as good as their battle from 2009, fans are in for an early treat.

Rafael Nadal

But trying to capture lightning in a bottle twice is never an easy task, and it is highly questionable as to whether or not Nadal and Verdasco can recreate something as special as their first meeting in Melbourne.  They are now separated by more than 40 places in the rankings with Verdasco barely inside the top 50.  And while 2015 was a disappointing year by the fifth seed's lofty standards, with his strong finish to last season and run to the final of Doha to kick off 2016, Nadal is clearly playing the better brand of tennis now.  If all of that were not enough to have him looking like a solid favorite, his dominant 14-2 win-loss record against his countryman would.

One of the reasons that Verdasco has enjoyed so little success against Nadal is that it is simply a bad match-up for him.  Both men are lefties looking to control proceedings by using their favored forehands.  Unfortunately for Verdasco, Nadal tends to do things better.  The higher-ranked Spaniard is more consistent from the back of the court off both wings and is more versatile with his backhand.  His legendary ability to track down almost any ball also tends to goad Verdasco into going for too much and committing unforced errors.  Assuming that Nadal regularly stays up on the baseline and has a decent serving day, he should be optimistic about his consistency seeing him through to the finish line.

None of this is to say that Verdasco does not have a game that could garner him an upset over Nadal, however.  He is naturally the more aggressive of the pair and can go bigger on the serve.  His groundstrokes also tend to be a little more penetrating, given that he is unafraid to flatten them out.  But the onus is going to be on him to red-line his game and be able to effectively play high-risk tennis beginning to end.  That means going for his first serves and putting in a high percentage, attacking any looks he gets at a Nadal second serve, and forcing himself to always stay up on the baseline to improve his odds of being able to dictate the majority of the play.

Fernando Verdasco

There is no question that Verdasco faces a difficult task, but he has cause to believe that he can get the job done.  Despite his dismal record against the fifth seed, he has won two of his last three matches against Nadal, and his one loss in that trio came in a deciding set.  He also ought to be able to swing away more freely, since all of the pressure is squarely on the shoulders of his countryman.  And that pressure on Nadal is not just the routine pressure that comes with being the favorite in the match either.  Whether he admits it publicly or not, Nadal is aware that he has something to prove after his 2015 season.  He is tired of people talking about his results from last year.  He knows he has been playing better, but this tournament is his first real test.  He wants to continue striving towards his top form and avoid an early exit in Melbourne, which could have a domino effect if the doubts that plagued him last season are allowed to creep back into his game and affect his play in the months to come.

Nadal will be keen to avoid such a scenario and instead kick his 2016 into high gear with a deep run in Australia.  He understands the danger Verdasco poses, and he will not make the mistake of underestimating him.  Verdasco could cause the upset, but just do not bet on it.  Nadal has not lost prior to the second week of the Australian Open since he made his debut here in 2004, and while it is possible, it is not probable that Verdasco will be the player to break that streak.

Venus Williams

The opening days of a major have an abundance of matches on offer.  With so many to choose from, it is impossible to assign the same level of interest and importance to each them.  Some are more significant or have the potential to be more entertaining than others.  One of those matches with potential lies in the bottom quarter of the women's draw.  It pits Venus Williams against Johanna Konta in what might possibly pan out to be an early upset.

Many would be reluctant to bet against Williams in this first-round encounter.  As a former Grand Slam champion, the American is a sentimental favorite who has done exceptionally well to work her way back into the top 10 and earn the eighth seed at this year's Australian Open.  She has 48 career titles and has been to the second week in Melbourne on multiple occasions, including a finalist appearance in 2003.  After reaching the final eight here last year, she will be keen to repeat that performance and strive to go even farther.

Konta has not enjoyed nearly the same level of success in her young career as her American opponent.  The majority of her accomplishments have come at the ITF level, and it was only as recently as last summer during the grass-court season that she began to make any headway on the main tour.  She has since managed to work her way up into the top 50 of the rankings, and she will be eager to see if she can build on that with her debut in Melbourne.

If Konta wants her first trip to the Australian Open to last more than a single round, however, she is going to have her work cut out for her.  The eighth seed holds the majority of the cards in this match.  She hits bigger off the ground and on serve.  She is better equipped to cover the court, and she is intimidating up at the net between her height and reach.  Williams is also always looking to be the aggressor, so Konta can ill afford to be timid and allow Williams to easily dictate play.  Instead, Konta needs to look to be the player controlling the rallies. She is capable of going big and flat, which she will need to do in order to keep Williams off balance, but she cannot be frustrated with the number of balls that are bound to come back.  Instead, she has to play within herself, use her serve – her favorite shot – to put herself in the driver's seat on her own service games, and capitalize whenever she is given a look at a second serve from Williams.  Keeping Williams under pressure is Konta's best hope for leveling the playing field and potentially extracting errors from the eighth seed.

Johanna Konta

As it is, both women are apt to be feeling the pressure when they take to the court.  Neither looked great in the tune-up events for Melbourne, so they are not yet secure in their games.  One positive for Williams, though, is that she has won her only meeting against Konta, which came in Wuhan last fall.  She will also be banking on her vast experience and stature in the game to be a difference-maker in the tight moments.  But Konta should not be entirely lacking in belief when it comes to crunch-time in this match.  She may have lost her only previous meeting with Williams, but it was a close three-set affair.  She also collected some stunning victories last season, including wins over Simona Halep, Garbiñe Muguruza, and Andrea Petkovic.  If she brings her best, there is no reason why she could not add Williams' name to that list.

If both women bring their best, this should be an exciting opening round.  It should also be a match that Williams wins.  Konta's chances should not be dismissed.  She has proven she is capable of defeating a player of Williams' caliber, but she will still face a tall order to do so.  Look for Williams to book a spot in the next round.