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AO Day 1 Preview: Nishikori, Serena

Jan 17th 2016

The opening rounds at the majors are not known for producing the most intriguing of matches, but this year's edition of the Australian Open has managed to yield more than a few early contests of interest.  Among the more intriguing of these is the match that pits seventh seed Kei Nishikori against the always dangerous Philipp Kohlschreiber.

Kei Nishikori
 

On paper, Nishikori is the clear favorite.  As evidenced by his higher ranking, the seventh seed is the player who has enjoyed greater success in recent months.  Of the pair, the Japanese man is also the one who has performed better in Melbourne, reaching the second week in each of the last four years, including a quarterfinal showing in 2015.  Factor in his appearance in the final of the 2014 US Open, and it is Nishikori who can boast of both more experience and more accolades when it comes to competing at the majors.

While Kohlschreiber may fall shy of Nishikori's achievements, however, he will hardly view their upcoming battle as an insurmountable challenge.  On the contrary, he knows he has more than a half-chance of earning a spot in the second round.  Once ranked as high as No. 16, he only just missed earning a seed for this event.  Furthermore, he has experienced decent results at the majors, including three trips to Week 2 of the Australian Open.  Equally important, the German has garnered his share of stunning victories, many of which would be categorized as bigger than a defeat of Nishikori, so he will have no qualms about derailing the seventh seed's title hopes straight out of the gates.

Philipp Kohlschreiber

If Kohlschreiber hopes to get the better of Nishikori is this opening match, though, he is going to have to make a concerted effort to do two things.  The first is to use the variety he possesses in his game to keep Nishikori off balance.  The German has a versatile backhand that he can slice to give the seventh seed different looks, as well as to open up the court by finding the short angles.  Secondly, in order to effectively employ his variety, Kohlschreiber has to be committed to staying up on the baseline and looking to move forward whenever possible.  Nishikori is the better mover and undeniably the more explosive shot-maker of the pair, particularly off the forehand wing.  If Kohlschreiber gives him an abundance of real estate to work with by falling too far back, Nishikori is going to dictate this match with that forehand and easily book his passage through to the second round.

Of course, there is no guarantee that Nishikori will be able to produce his best to secure a victory.  Between his success in recent months and his overall success at the majors, he ought to come into this match with more confidence.  He has the added assurance that comes with knowing he is the player in a better position to control what is happening on the court as well.  But being the player in the driver's seat also means being the one expected to win.  More than a few competitors have crumbled under the weight of such expectations, and a free-swinging Kohlschreiber could take advantage if Nishikori goes that route.  Furthermore, these two have never played before, so there will be no comfort that comes with familiarity.  And finally, if this match turns into a physically taxing affair, Kohlschreiber has to like his chances.  Nishikori has made great strides to improve his health and fitness, but he remains an injury-prone player who can still fade away in the long matches.  The wily German veteran will be aware of this and is apt to do all he can to make life difficult for the seventh seed. 

Suffice it to say, there is plenty of reason to believe this could be one of the most entertaining of the opening matches.  It definitely would not be a shock to see Kohlschreiber pull off an early upset, since he has the requisite tools to do so.  But it is hard to bet against the seventh seed, so expect Nishikori to find some way to advance to the second round.

Serena Williams

There is always a certain level of interest when Serena Williams takes to the court.  She is a legend of the game expected to win every match that she plays.  The American is used to being under the microscope, but she may find herself subjected to a new level of scrutiny at this year's Australian Open.  After falling devastatingly short of completing a calendar-year Grand Slam last season, fans, analysts, and Williams herself will be eager to see how she responds as she engages in her first official competitive match since that loss.  That is enough to make any player nervous, and her first-round opponent, Camila Giorgi, could also play a part in making the top seed's life difficult.

At first glance, it might appear that Giorgi does not stand a prayer against the world No. 1.  The gap between their list of accomplishments is vast.  Williams has numerous titles, including 21 major singles titles alone.  By contrast, the Italian just picked up her first career title last season on the grass of 's-Hertogenbosch.  As her record would suggest, the American has far more experience playing these types of matches as well.  It is not that Giorgi is lacking in success at the majors.  She has been to the second week of both Wimbledon and the US Open, but she cannot hold a candle to what Williams has achieved throughout her decorated career.  Furthermore, Williams has won her only two prior meetings with Giorgi, and both were in straight sets.

Obviously, based on their respective careers and brief rivalry, Williams is a heavy favorite.  Her odds are further increased by the fact that she owns the bigger game in this contest.  Her serve – both first and second – is the best on tour.  She has greater firepower off the ground and is quicker around the court.  But while the top seed is in the better position to dictate play, she cannot afford to underestimate the Italian.  Giorgi was the highest-ranked player not to get a seed, and as evidenced by her three-set loss to Angelique Kerber in Brisbane and quarterfinal showing in Hobart, she is playing some good ball right now.  Giorgi is also capable of playing bigger than her size would suggest with her flat, penetrating groundstrokes off both wings.  And while she cannot cover the court as effectively as Williams, Giorgi is fleet of foot herself.  She has the ability to make the American hit a lot of balls, and if Williams starts to get passive, the Italian will not hesitate to capitalize on her opportunities.

Camila Giorgi

Williams should have no doubt that Giorgi is capable of imposing herself if given the chance.  She got the better of Maria Sharapova two years ago at Indian Wells and very nearly toppled Venus Williams in the third round of this tournament last year, so she is unlikely to be intimidated by the top seed.  As the lower-ranked of the two, she is also freer to swing away.  It is Williams who will have to battle harder to overcome early match jitters and prove that she has successfully buried the demons from last season.  Williams has generally been good about knowing when she needs to be prepared for a challenge, but it will be interesting to see if facing Giorgi will have her looking sharp from the outset or compound any lingering doubts and nerves left over from 2015.

In the end, this has the potential to be a compelling battle. Williams's 2015 Grand Slam bid was ended in stunning fashion at the US Open by an unheralded Italian.  Could another unheralded Italian end her 2016 campaign before it even gets off the ground?  The answer is “yes,” but it is unlikely.  Whether she breezes through or is made to work for it, Williams has pulled out of too many tight jams to assume she will not get through this time as well.  Expect to see her in the second round.