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Wimbledon Gentlemen's Final Preview

Jul 14th 2018

For the first time in over a year, a major final will be contested in which neither of the two finalists is named either Roger Federer or Rafael Nadal.  Instead, it will be Kevin Anderson, the man who vanquished Federer en route to the final, and Novak Djokovic, who did the same to Nadal, who will square off in the hopes of being crowned the 2018 Wimbledon Champion.

Historically, as has been the case against a number of other players, Djokovic is a bad matchup for Anderson.  The only area where Anderson really has a clear edge is on his serve, which is mostly due to his height, and an argument could also be made that he is a little more comfortable up at net.   None of this means the South African is a slouch off the ground, however.  On the contrary, he can comfortably go big off of both wings and can produce some nice slice with his backhand, which played a role in his upset over Federer and could certainly help him make some inroads on Sunday.  That said, the real keys to victory for him are going to be to consistently employ that serve to either win him points outright or set up a quick one-two punch and look to move forward when the opportunities arise to try and pressure the Serb into mistakes.

Novak Djokovic

Djokovic will no doubt come prepared to hit some passing shots, but he will be more keen to keep the eighth seed pinned back on the baseline as much as possible.  That means staying up on his own baseline, keeping the ball deep, and if at all possible, keep the lanky guy on the run by changing the direction of the ball up the lines or finding the angles to pull him out wide.  The return is also going to be crucial for Djokovic.  He may be better than Anderson in virtually every facet of their respective games, but if he cannot put enough returns in play it will not count for anything.  If he can especially impose his will on second-serve returns, that might cull some double faults from Anderson and possibly force him to take a little off of the first serve, swinging things even more in favor of the former Number 1.

Successful execution of a game plan relies on feeling confident enough to do so and mentally being in the moment.  And it is that psychological intangible that really makes Sunday's final so intriguing.  On one hand, everyone has to wonder how much mentally and physically Anderson has in the tank after going 13-11 in the fifth against Federer and playing over six hours in the semifinals to defeat John Isner 26-24 in the fifth.  He showed nerves of steel to get through both of those encounters and prove that his run last summer in New York was not a fluke.  But being asked to do it yet again against someone whom he is 1-5 against may be one match too many.  On the other hand, Anderson is sure to have discovered new confidence with those victories.  That he finally got a win on the board against Federer should have him believing he could notch another over the likes of Djokovic.  And for some players, not being as fresh can be a positive.  They sometimes feel fewer nerves, as they do not think about the outcome as much, and it can make the game plan that much more straightforward.

Kevin Anderson

A straightforward victory is likely what many are predicting for Djokovic on Sunday, and it is easy to understand why.  He has multiple majors to his name, including three here.  He does enjoy that dominant 5-1 lead in his rivalry with Anderson, and his lone loss to the South African came in their first meeting ten years ago.  But it can be easy to forget that although he has made great strides throughout this fortnight, this still is not the same Djokovic that completed the Career Grand Slam in 2016.  There have been lapses in concentration and a lack of confidence in executing shots that were once routine for him.  He, too, played a long and more physical semifinal, which was not completed until Saturday, leaving him no day off in between matches.  It was also a highly emotional victory over Nadal, which could see him vulnerable to a potential let down, for which Anderson would be happy to take advantage of.

Only time will tell how these two gentlemen will not only respond to what has happened throughout these last two weeks but in particular the last few days.  As he has demonstrated in his last couple of rounds, it is dangerous to count out Anderson.  He is playing in his second major final, has a game that should translate well to grass, and he nearly defeated Djokovic when they met here in 2015, leading the Serb by two sets before succumbing in five.  Yet between his history here and his history with Anderson, Djokovic has to be looked at as the likely victor.  For a man who exited Paris questioning if he was even going to play the grass season, he has turned it on in a hurry.  It was a massively important breakthrough getting the victory over Nadal in the semifinals, but to turn this Wimbledon into a true turning point in his comeback, he has to finish with the title.  If he can hold is nerve, he will do just that.