Serena Williams versus Ekaterina Makarova

The tennis world has converged on Flushing Meadows for the year's final slam, and many eyes will be on top seed Serena Williams as she bids to secure her twenty-third major singles title.  The American enters this US Open surrounded by question marks concerning her health and match preparation.  She will need to have some satisfactory answers to those questions, as she can ill afford to be slow out of the gates.  She faces Ekaterina Makarova in her opening match, and the Russian is more than capable of dashing her hopes of reaching the second round.

The casual tennis fan could be forgiven for assuming that Williams should breeze through this one.   After all, she is one of the most decorated players – male or female – in history, and she has enjoyed more than her share of success in New York, particularly in recent years.  This is the opening round, which means she is also up against a non-seeded opponent.  She has been bankable throughout the majority of this season as far as reaching the latter stages of events, and then there is the fact that she has been to the final of the first three slams this season, winning the title at Wimbledon. 

But for all of her accolades, Williams and more savvy, regular tennis fans know that Makarova represents a potentially dangerous first-round foe.  The Russian may currently be ranked world no. 36, but she has been as high as world no. 8 in singles and Number 3 in doubles.  A right-leg injury sustained in the second half of 2015 is primarily responsible for her tumble in the rankings, but she is quickly working her way back into top form.  She is also a former semifinalist both here and at the Australian Open and has won major titles in doubles as well as this year's Olympic Games in Rio. 

There is no doubt that Makarova has accomplished enough in her own career that she will enter this match against Williams with the requisite confidence that she can pull off the upset.  In addition to that, despite a losing 1-4 record against the American, including two losses at the US Open, she did have a great victory over Williams four years ago at the Australian Open.  This is also the site of her favorite tournament, and she has reached the fourth round or better on her last three trips to Queens.

As for where Williams is mentally coming into this match, only she truly knows.  Given her legendary career and individual record at the US Open, she should not be short on belief.  She enjoys the decisive edge in this rivalry, too.  But she is lacking in match play during this summer hard court season, and if her shoulder injury is still wreaking havoc on her serve, that could cause her to press in other areas of her game.  She is playing to try and maintain her Number 1 ranking as well, which could lead to nerves.

If Williams is off her game, Makarova has the skills to make her pay for it.  The Russian lefty spends the bulk of her time doing damage from the baseline, but as evidenced by her doubles prowess, she knows a thing or two about getting the job done at the net.  She is going to have to look to move forward on occasion to keep giving the American different looks.  More importantly, though, Makarova has to have a good serving day, as the last thing she wants is for Williams to begin teeing off on returns.  For Williams, this match is about playing within herself and not allowing any early jitters to impact her game.  If the shoulder is sufficiently healed, then a dominant serving day should help raise the level of the rest of her game, and she can look to eventually hit the Russian off the court.  If not, then she has to trust her ground game and be patient in waiting for her opportunities.  She is the bigger ball-striker in this contest and is in the better position to control her own destiny.

All told, niggling injury or not, this is still more Williams' match to win or lose.  But it is definitely one of the tougher opening matches of the tournament against an accomplished and seasoned veteran.  Williams should come through, but if she plays sloppy, do not be surprised if the upset occurs.

Andy Murray versus Lukas Rosol 

The list of heavy favorites to leave Flushing Meadows as the 2016 US Open Champion is a very short one, but Andy Murray's name is on it.  The Scot, so long the junior member of the Big 4, has now distanced himself from everyone in the field save Novak Djokovic.  He wants to continue to make headway towards chasing down his top rival, and he can help his cause by getting his US Open off to a stellar start against Lukas Rosol. 

On paper, there is no reason to worry that Murray will kick off his US Open in anything less than impressive style, as he is the clear favorite against the Czech.  He has proven extremely difficult to defeat this year.  He made the final of his last seven tournaments, which included picking up his third major title at Wimbledon and a second gold medal in singles at the Olympics.  Couple that with the fact that he reached the finals of both the Australian Open and Roland Garros, and there are few who would bet against him doing something similar at this event. 

Most definitely would not figure on Rosol derailing the second seed's title hopes.  The Czech has spent portions of 2016 relegated to the Challenger Tour and has a dismal losing record for the season.  He has been dismissed in the opening round of the last two slams, and he has never been past the second round of this tournament.  But Rosol is one of those guys who likes to be part of the marquee matches and often finds some of his best tennis in those moments.  He did so against Rafael Nadal on Centre Court at Wimbledon a few years ago, and he will hope to pull off something similar against Murray. 

The fact that he has already once pulled off the seemingly impossible against the Spaniard at Wimbledon should have him believing he could do the same in New York against Murray.  He also knows that he has played Murray close in the past, going three sets with him in both of their previous meetings.  In addition to that, he will be aware that Murray started slow in Paris and nearly paid the price this past spring, and the Scot has looked a little banged up with all of the tennis he has played this summer.  That said, Murray is still going to like his chances.  He has been so spectacular this year that he has been on par, if not surpassed the season that Djokovic has put together to date, and he knows that it has taken some exceptionally tough efforts to defeat him.  He has also been here far more often than the Czech, so there is no reason to question his ability to better handle the moment. 

There is also no reason to question how the second seed's game matches up against Rosol's.  He moves better and has greater consistency.  His backhand and forehand are superior, and he is more solid at the net.  He owns the better return, and his serve is apt to be more consistent over the course of the match.  That does not leave much room for Rosol to make any inroads, but all may not be lost.  He does go bigger on his serve, which if he is able to put in a high percentage, could turn out to be troublesome for the Scot. He also strikes the ball bigger and flatter with his forehand, which should allow him to make headway if he strikes it with any regularity.  Rosol is going to need some assistance from Murray though if he is to avoid pressing and imposing his own strengths on the second seed to potentially earn the upset. 

Suffice it to say, this one has a Murray victory written all over it.  He is the better player and has been so consistent in 2016 that it seems extremely unlikely he would suffer an early exit in New York, the site of his first major.  If he is struggling with his form, Rosol might just have it in him to upset the apple cart, but do not bet on it.  Murray should move through to Round 2.