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Lisicki, Raonic Seek Wimbledon Third Round

Jun 29th 2016

There is a school of thought that argues tennis players tend to produce their best when competing at a venue where they have already enjoyed a high level of success.  There is no concrete way to gauge how often that line of thought holds true, but there are cases that lend some validity to it.  A primary example is Sabine Lisicki.  It seems that no matter how poorly she plays in the 50 weeks leading into it, over the course of the Wimbledon fortnight, she looks like a world-class competitor capable of defeating anyone in the sport.  She will put that trend to the test on Wednesday when she looks to upset Samantha Stosur for a spot in the third round. 

Sabine Lisicki

A casual observer would think the German is facing an uphill battle on Wednesday.  She may have been ranked as high as No. 12, but she now resides outside the top 80.  Her low ranking is a reflection of her struggles the last several months, including the grass tune-up events for this tournament.  As mentioned earlier, however, Lisicki's form coming into Wimbledon has historically had little bearing on her results at SW 19.  She has reached the quarterfinals or better on five of her last six trips to the All England Club, and she will be brimming with belief that Stosur is hardly to be the one to stop her in adding to that impressive record.

The Australian is ranked higher at a sturdy No. 16, and she is a former US Open champion.  Stosur also reached the final of Roland Garros six years ago and was once ranked as high as No. 4 in singles and No. 1 in doubles.  Furthermore, she arrived at Wimbledon with more confidence than she has enjoyed in a long time, thanks to a great clay-court swing that culminated with a semifinal showing at Roland Garros.  She would appear to be set for a solid run here.

Tennis insiders know that appearances can be deceiving where Stosur is concerned, though, and even more so given that she is up against Lisicki.  The Australian leads their rivalry 5-2 and has won two of their three meetings on grass, but it is Lisicki who won their lone meeting here.  In addition to that, whereas Wimbledon is easily the best major for Lisicki, it has been the worst for Stosur.  Only three times in her career has she managed to get past this stage at Wimbledon, and when factoring in that Stosur has a reputation for being a bit of a head case, that can be a huge hurdle for her to overcome.

Samantha Stosur

The other issue for Stosur in this match-up is that her game is not as well suited to the grass as the German's.  Both women have good serves and great feel around the net, and they clock their forehands better than their backhands.  But Lisicki's slice tends to bite more off the grass than the 14th seed's, and she gets more mileage out of her big flat serve than Stosur does from her exceptional kick delivery.  The German's groundstrokes tend to be flatter and more compact as well, which should put her in a better position to control a larger percentage of the rallies than the Australian, who prefers a little more time to tee off on her shots.

Time will tell which of these women will ultimately reign victorious and move one step closer to the title, but it is difficult to bet against Lisicki being the one to do so.  She becomes a different player when she sets foot on these lawns.  Also, with all of the success that she has enjoyed here in conjunction with all of the frustration Stosur has endured in London, Lisicki has to be the one favored to come through in spite of all of the evidence coming into Wimbledon that points to the contrary.

Milos Raonic

Before a major even gets underway, pundits are analyzing draw projections and salivating over the potential matches that could occur in the latter rounds.  While it is fine for analysts and fans to enjoy this exercise, it is imperative that the players avoid the temptation to look too far ahead, lest they overlook a possible early hiccup.  Milos Raonic is a man whom many like to at a minimum go deep in London, but in order to do so, he must first overcome one of those potential early hiccups in wily veteran Andreas Seppi.

Granted, Raonic will be heavily favored to get through this contest.  The Canadian has steadily been coming into his own of late, and after knocking off Roger Federer in the final of Brisbane, he has not looked back, regularly making the quarterfinals or better at most events that he enters.  He is a former Wimbledon semifinalist and comfortably positioned within the top 10, and after adding John McEnroe to his team for at least the duration of the grass season, he may now have all the pieces in place to taste major success at the All England Club.

It is fair to say that Seppi cannot hold a candle to all Raonic has done, but he is unlikely to be intimidated by the situation or his opponent.  The Italian has slipped outside the top 40, but he has been ranked as high as No. 18.  Seppi has notched wins over Federer, Rafael Nadal, and Andy Murray, the last of whom he went four sets with at this event last year.  He has been to the second week of a major on multiple occasions, including at Wimbledon, and one of his three singles titles came on the grass of Eastbourne.  Lastly, although he has struggled with his form for much of 2016, he has looked good in the weeks leading up to this event, reaching the quarterfinals in Halle and the semifinals last week in Nottingham.

Andreas Seppi

Seppi seems to be hitting his stride at the ideal moment, but he still faces a tough task on Wednesday.  The Italian does not have any glaring weaknesses in his game, but he does not boast any notable weapons either.  Instead, he is solid and steady, which leaves him able to take advantage of an opponent who is having a bad day at the office.  If Raonic cannot be goaded into giving up errors, however, it is going to be a long day for Seppi.  The sixth seed not only does almost everything better than the Italian, but also he does them bigger.  He enjoys a decisive edge on serve, superior firepower from the ground, and more comfort in the forecourt.  If he plays his best, this is his match to win.

Raonic is apt to be feeling good about his odds for success as well.  He has won his only prior meeting against Seppi, and after reaching the final of the Aegon Championships a couple of weeks ago, he knows that he is in good form.  In addition to that, Raonic has spoken about how the input from McEnroe has him truly believing that he is ready to take the next step in his career.  Suffice it to say, there are a lot of positives in Raonic's corner, and certainly more than there are for Seppi.  But the Italian does list grass as one of his favorite surfaces, he did go four sets with Raonic in their lone meeting, and he has been playing his best tennis of the season over the last few weeks.  He will also be aware that Raonic has had a tendency to log some lackadaisical performances at the majors, and he is just the type of player to take advantage if that situation presents itself.

Of course, the odds of that situation presenting itself to the Italian look slim.  The Canadian seems to have an extra spring in his step lately, and he is secure in the knowledge that Seppi does not have anything to hurt him.  If he under-performs, Seppi has the tools to cause a big upset, but do not bet on it.  Raonic has too much game and right now looks like a man with too much belief to stumble at this juncture of Wimbledon.