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2015 Miami Open Stock Watch

Mar 24th 2015

Coming off of Indian Wells, the world’s tennis players will head to the sunny shores of Miami on the other side of the US for yet another outdoor hard court masters event. Some found their form, or continued strong runs of play in the California desert, while others are slumping, and perhaps ready to find their feet on European clay in the coming weeks. Here is a look at who could relish the end the spring hard court season, and those who will be flying to Europe early.

BUY

5: Alexandr Dolgopolov

Dolgopolov was a quarterfinalist in Miami last year, and though his ranking has dropped considerably, he’s actually playing relatively well at the moment. He scored two wins in Indian Wells before falling to eventual semifinalist Milos Raonic, and before that he had reached consecutive quarterfinals in Delray and Acapulco, both outdoor hard court events, like IW. He’s in a good section of the draw that could see him reach the fourth round as unseeded player. Ricardas Berankis is his first opponent, and then Tommy Robredo, the inconsistent seed, would be next. One of two clay courters, or Lleyton Hewitt would be his third round opponent, and to some extent he should be favored in all those matches, which would result in him drawing almost assuredly Novak Djokovic in the round of 16. He’s a streaky shotmaker who very much rides on form, and right now signs are good for another good result for the Ukrainian.

4: Steve Johnson

Though fellow American Jack Sock could also make a good run, he’s in a much tougher section of the draw than Johnson. Stevie J will face the streaky Mikhail Kukushkin in round 1, with Kukushkin coming off an army injury, and he hasn’t lost an opening round match this season with three ATP quarterfinals, and two wins in Indian Wells as well. Johnson hasn’t made an explosive breakthrough yet, but he’s been steadily on the rise, and this is his best surface. After Kukushkin, his seeded opponent will be the 12 Gilles Simon, who beat him in Tokyo last fall, Simon is beatable however, and if Johnson wins that, he is likely to face Ivo Karlovic, who he beat in straight sets in Indian Wells in round 3, and he has a chance to do one better than IW and get to the round of 16 to face David Ferrer most likely, he would be a big underdog, but as Bernard Tomic showed, Ferrer is beatable.

3: Thanasi Kokkinakis

Kokkinakis should beat clay courter Carlos Berlocq in the opening round, after that he has a chance to score a top 10 win over Stan Wawrinka. Wawrinka suffered a shock loss to Robin Haase in Indian Wells, that puts his current form into question. The Aussie teen is in great form, as he’s 13-4 since the Australian Open, and 4-1 in his last five matches. He beat a pair of veterans and reached the round of 16 in Indian Wells before falling to Bernard Tomic in 3 sets. Should Kokkinakis upset Wawrinka, most likely on the back of his forehand, he has the inside track to reach the round of 16, as his next opponent is likely Adrian Mannarino. Kokkinakis is a tenacious player who will go into his matches with considerable belief.

2: Feliciano Lopez

Lopez was a quarterfinalist in Indian Wells, as he scored a top 5 win over Kei Nishikori. The veteran Spaniard, with his tricky slice and volley combo that tends to flummox opponents has had an up and down season, but he has a favorable draw that should see him through to at least the round of 16, and more likely the quarterfinals of another Masters event. The fan favorite 10 seed will face either Diego Schwartzman, who prefers clay, or a struggling Dominic Thiem in round 2, and then Jack Sock (or the seed Fabio Fognini) in round 3. He has a h2h win over Sock, though the American is playing well right now, and presuming he wins that, he will have a great chance to upset Wawrinka, or beat Kokkinakis/Mannarino  to reach the quarters, where he is likely to rematch with Andy Murray, who he lost to in Indian Wells at the same stage. Lopez, is one of those players who has aged like a fine wine and he’s playing better than ever these days.

1: Milos Raonic

Milos Raonic

Raonic has a relatively positive draw and could well make another Masters semifinal, just as he did in Indian Wells. He tends to play some of his best tennis at the Masters level, and he’s had a very strong season on the back of his world class serve, and much improved ground strokes. He’ll look to continue to be immune to upsets from lower ranked players as his path to the quarters is Teymuraz Gabashvili/Pablo Andujar, then Jeremy Chardy/Ryan Harrison/Jurgen Melzer, and most likely Grigor Dimitrov/John Isner in the third round, though Juan Martin Del Potro is also in this section. He will be favored in all of those matches (though he’s 0-2 in his career against Isner), and a rematch withKei Nishikori is likely in the semis. Though he’s just 2-5 against the Japanese number 1, they have a budding rivalry, their matches have been close, and Raonic won their outdoor hard court meeting in Brisbane earlier this season. Raonic would face Novak Djokovic almost certainly if he makes the semis, with David Ferrer his second most likely opponent. Djokovic beat Milos in Melbourne last year, but Novak’s worst matchup Is against big servers so a tenacious Raonic should have a chance.

SELL

5: Santiago  Giraldo

The 27 seed could well be booted by a qualifier, or young gun wild card Kyle Edmund in his first match. Though the Miami fans should be behind the Colombian, I’m not sure it’s going to make that much of a difference. He’s just 2-4 this year on hard courts and hasn’t won consecutive matches at any hard court event. After a career year last year he was booted by Alex Dolgopolov in his most recent match in Indian Wells, and though he still has a big forehand, the wheels are coming off the other parts of his game, as he’s lacking confidence at the moment.

4: Fabio Fognini

Fognini dropped his third straight match, when he lost to Adrian Mannarino, tanking yet again in Indian Wells. The Italian number one has not won a match on a hard court since last fall, and has not gone deep in a hard court tournament since Cincinnati 2014. Fognini should be an underdog against Jack Sock in his opening match, and is on pace for another opening match exit, perhaps with yet another embarrassing tank.

3: David Goffin

18 seed David Goffin could exit in his opening match against teenager Borna Coric. Though he beat Coric last fall in Basel, Goffin has failed to win consecutive matches at any tournament since the Australian Open. He hasn’t been entirely healthy in that time, and Coric is likely to be formidable, even if he wins that, Roberto Bautista Agut is likely to defeat him in the third round. Similar to Giraldo, Goffin had a career year in 2014, but has failed to replicate that in 2015, having come back down to earth to some extent, as his undersized game isn’t doing him a lot of favors right now.

2: Bernard Tomic

Tomic has had a solid season at 22, but I’m selling his stock as the number 25 seed because he is likely to be fatigued and not healthy going into this tournament. He had a host of injuries, including back and dental problems in Indian Wells that forced him to pull out of that tournament in the quarterfinals. He will face a qualifier or Denis Istomin in the second round, and that’s a winnable match, but Tomas Berdych, who beat him in Australia, will be a big favorite to defeat him in round 3.

1: Stan Wawrinka

As mentioned, Wawrinka suffered a shocking lost to Robin Haase in Indian Wells where he played a listless match and sprayed errors. He’s under pressure to stay in the top 10 right now and appears to be lacking confidence and consistency, even if he beats Kokkinakis, he’s also susceptible to being upset by Mannarino or Lopez/Sock in the round of 16. Haase had not won an ATP match on the season before beating Wawrinka, and is barely a top 100 player these days, that was how bad of a loss his loss to Haase was.