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Viewpoint: Why Federer Will Win His 20th Major On Sunday

Jan 25th 2018

Two men stand between Roger Federer and an historic 20th Grand Slam: Hyeon Chung and Marin Cilic. Prepare yourself for the headline “Roger makes history once again in Melbourne”. He is set to face Chung in the remaining semi-final and Cilic in the final - a reprise of the Wimbledon 2017 final.

At his relatively mature age of 36, Federer is inexplicably playing the most aggressive tennis in the sport now. An indicator of this is the sheer number of winners he has been able to put past his opponents in this tournament. In his quarter-final match against Tomas Berdych, he hit 61 winners. For a three-set match, this is an astonishing figure. When considering also his unforced error count, which was less than half this figure at age 30, a formidable picture is painted of Federer's current form.

Roger Federer

Federer's two remaining opponents have been unable to replicate his winner count in comparable three-set matches. Chung fired 27 past Tennys Sandgren in his quarter-final and before that an impressive 47 against an obviously underpowered and sluggish Novak Djokovic whose racquet-head speed was a shadow of its former self. Similarly, Cilic managed only 32 winners against Kyle Edmund in his semifinal.

Another less tangible factor that will contribute to his inevitable success in this tournament is Federer's confidence. He is perhaps more confident than ever before. With his old nemeses all falling to injury, Federer is quite evidently the strongest player in current tennis. This is where he likes to be. Although he is currently ranked second in the world, he has previously held the number one position for a record 302 weeks. There's no questioning it's where he knows he belongs. This self-belief is what has propelled him through his career and will gain him his 20th Grand Slam title.

The strongest forewarning of Federer's confidence came in his battle with Berdych. In the second game of the final set, he was 40-0 up on his serve and after a strong backhand return from the big Czech, Federer found himself defending. Berdych quickly followed up with a powerful and superbly angled forehand, stretching Federer out wide to his own forehand side. Seemingly at the edge of his tether, Federer barely managed to connect his racquet to the ball, but when he did he created a moment of magic.

Roger Federer

In this sport, magic has become synonymous with the name Roger Federer and this shot was an apt example. The natural thing for any player to do would be to chip the ball down the line or short and into the middle of the court. Instead, Federer sent the ball careening cross-court within inches of the baseline, completely wrong-footing Berdych. This point was symbolic of the match and Federer's whole tournament. He is achieving what people think is impossible. Many of the great champions of tennis would probably have pulled off this shot - for example, the great returners like Agassi, Nadal or Borg to name a few - but Federer knows he can do it every single time.

A 20th Grand Slam title may not mean anything more to the man than his 19th one, but it will undoubtedly settle the score among pundits - Federer is the greatest champion this sport has ever known.

Follow James Naidoo's tweets at twitter.com/jamienaidoo