Roger Federer has emphatically swept aside any doubts his best tennis was behind him after winning the 2014 ATP 500 title in Dubai. In taking his first title since Halle in June last year, he’s also set alarm bells ringing for the rest of his rivals ahead of the start of the Masters 1000 event at Indian Wells.

After winning his first tournament after his injury-plagued 2013, the focus turns to whether Federer can back up that result in the Californian desert and make a serious play for the title. While Federer’s adversity last season saw him slip behind Stanislas Wawrinka as the top-ranked Swiss, he has shown enough to suggest that he cannot just perform well at Indian Wells but perhaps even win the tournament.

After a disappointing 2013 season, many observers (including me) predicted a steep slide for Federer. However, his commitment to altering his gameplay and adjusting his schedule as well as his practice regimen has seen a much fresher and fitter Federer than expected. This has not only shown in his 2014 results to date but has also been reflected in the type of play that he’s displayed. And it would not be at all surprising if he produced the same type of tennis at Indian Wells.

The main reason why Federer can win again in the desert is because his confidence is back. Confidence is an incredibly powerful element in tennis, and at the elite level it is often the difference between a Grand Slam champion and an also-ran. In Federer’s semifinal battle against Rafael Nadal at the Australian Open, Federer never resembled a player who possessed the belief or the will to engage with the Spaniard. Despite talking about possessing that belief in press conferences prior to the semifinal duel, he appeared to doubt whether he would have the game and the stamina to challenge the reigning world No. 1. And that doubt cost Federer there as Nadal delivered a swift straight-sets elimination.

However, things were different in Dubai. As if a weight had been lifted off the Swiss star’s shoulders, Federer appeared to play much freer tennis, exhibiting some of the form that saw him ascend to the top of the world a decade ago. His much-publicized change of racquet for the 2014 season meant that he wasn’t shanking as many balls as he had in 2013. Instead, Federer struck the ball as cleanly as he had done since winning his last major title at Wimbledon in 2012. He approached the net at will and seemed extremely comfortable on court.

While Federer had also appeared dynamic in the early and middle stages of this year’s Australian Open, one always felt the potential for him to fade against higher-ranked opponents. But there was no such evidence of this in a Dubai semifinal against world No. 2 Novak Djokovic. Federer fought back from a set down to take the match in three sets against a dogged Djokovic, who was also playing his first tournament since the Australian Open.

Some could have thought he merely defeated a rusty Djokovic, but finals opponent Tomas Berdych had come off a win at the ATP 500 tournament in Rotterdam and would offer no such reprieve. Once again, though, Federer appeared to play within himself as he fought back from losing the first set to win in three. Using his volleys and his variety to attack the world No. 5, it was seemingly the Federer of old who claimed his sixth Dubai title.

Coming off that win in Dubai, one would expect Federer to be brimming with confidence leading into a tournament that he’s won four times. The four Indian Wells titles mean that he’s comfortable with the surface, and Federer knows what to expect from most of the opponents he’ll face up against. Despite being drawn in the harder half of the draw, he may make it through to the fourth round considerably unscathed, where he would most likely meet either Kei Nishikori or his good friend Tommy Haas.

Until now, Federer has navigated his return from injury fairly well. He has somewhat altered his practice regime to accommodate for his aging and more fragile body. And he has ensured his schedule is not overly packed heading into the European clay swing. As he heads toward the more challenging period of the ATP season, his confidence levels appear back to where they need to be to contest for the most significant titles in the sport.