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Sweet Sixteen: Previewing the WTA Fourth Round in Miami

Mar 24th 2014

The madness of March has not struck Miami to the same extent that it struck Indian Wells two weeks ago.  Most of the usual contenders have survived their early threats, whereas the desert witnessed a host of unexpected twists and turns.  But the lives of the favorites have not been easy as spirited underdogs nip at their heels.  Will the fourth-round matches on Monday send the draw spiraling into chaos, or will a familiar-looking quarterfinal lineup take shape? 

Serena Williams

Serena Williams vs. Coco Vandeweghe:  These Americans once squared off in a final on home soil at Stanford.  Vandeweghe nipped at Serena’s heels throughout the first set before fading in the second, and the same trajectory could unfold again.  Consecutive upsets over top-30 opponents Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and Samantha Stosur will have raised the underdog’s confidence to its peak.  But serving specialist Vandeweghe simply lacks the athleticism and willpower of Serena, a superb server who can do so much more than serve.  Was Serena’s grueling three-setter against Caroline Garcia a blip on the radar, or confirmation that her February loss to Alize Cornet was no fluke?

Ekaterina Makarova vs. Angelique Kerber:  Rare in a righty-dominated WTA, a battle of two lefties offers the chance to appreciate the distinctive angles that they create.  Kerber has gone from the sublime to the ridiculous and back again more than once this year, reaching a Premier Five final in Doha before losing to a clay specialist at Indian Wells.  The German appeared to bring that meager form from the desert to Miami, where she needed a third-set tiebreak to survive doubles specialist Peng Shuai.  Makarova won the first hard-court title of her career last month and will fancy her chances to score a second straight top-10 upset after outlasting Sara Errani.

Maria Sharapova vs. Kirsten Flipkens:  To defeat Sharapova at the Sony Open, a woman either has to face her in the final or have a sister called Venus.  Over the last decade, only Serena Williams has stopped the Russian short of the final at a quasi-home tournament for a resident of Bradenton, Florida.  An early start time may not do Sharapova any favors a round after she battled Lucie Safarova for three hours under the lights.  Few of her victories this year have shown a form comparable to her 2012-13 brilliance.  But Flipkens will need all of the help that she can get.  The former Wimbledon semifinalist has won just five games in her last two matches against Sharapova, one of them this year.

Ana Ivanovic

Ana Ivanovic vs. Petra Kvitova:  Neither of these one-hit wonders often enjoys the trip to Miami, where the muggy conditions hamper the Czech’s breathing.  Ivanovic tends to arrive here flat in the wake of an outstanding result at Indian Wells, but this year she already has performed better at the Sony Open than in the desert.  The Serb has defeated two top-10 opponents recently in Serena and Kerber, and she has won four of her six meetings with Kvitova, all on hard courts.  If Ivanovic rises to the occasion again, she might reach her first Miami quarterfinal since 2005.  It’s hard to know what to expect from two women who veer between such radical extremes.

Venus Williams vs. Dominika Cibulkova:  Like her sister, Venus has produced some of her most consistently impressive tennis at her home tournament.  The elder Williams holds an immense height and power advantage over Cibulkova, who may struggle returning serve with her short wingspan.  Contrary to those expectations, though, the Slovak won their only hard-court meeting by exploiting an erratic effort from Venus.  Both women raced off to fast starts this year, Cibulkova reaching her first major final in Melbourne and Venus winning a Premier title in Dubai.  This should be a high-quality match if the 33-year-old Venus can recover from a three-set ordeal on Sunday.

Elina Svitolina vs. Agnieszka Radwanska:  A knee injury incurred during the Indian Wells final didn’t derail Radwanska for long.  The 2012 Miami champion has cruised through her first two matches without much ado and will feel confident against the inexperienced Svitolina.  While this promising teenager already has won a WTA title, she probably has faced few women of Radwanska’s subtlety and versatility.  Svitolina nearly upset Ivanovic at Indian Wells, which was impressive, but choked away the match more than once, which was not.  Radwanska has built much of her success upon flustering the one-dimensional, mentally fragile women rife in the sport’s middle tier.

Varvara Lepchenko vs. Caroline Wozniacki:  As much as Vandeweghe has turned heads this week, the biggest upset by a home hope belongs to Lepchenko.  She rallied from a third-set deficit to knock off world No. 6 Jelena Jankovic, the best hard-court victory of her career.  Many women on the edge of the top 50 would have felt content with that upset, but Lepchenko gritted through another third-set tiebreak a round later.  The Ukrainian-born American took Wozniacki the distance in their only hard-court clash so far.  At her lowest ranking since reaching No. 1, the Dane looks to squash a second straight home hope after dropping just a single game to Sloane Stephens.

Li Na

Carla Suarez Navarro vs. Li Na:  Usually players and coaches don’t mess with success, but neither Li nor Carlos Rodriguez were forged in an ordinary mold.  The Australian Open champion tinkered with her serve at her coach’s urging during Indian Wells, which resulted in costly double faults.  Continuing to experiment in Miami, Li flirted with danger in saving set points against Madison Keys but relied on her experience to survive.  Suarez Navarro has entrenched herself inside the top 20 by extending her success from clay to hard courts.  Still, her limited power probably can’t take Li out of her comfort zone unless the Chinese star implodes as she did at Indian Wells.

Check back for a similar look at the fourth round in the men’s draw on Tuesday.