We are down to the final week of the tennis “regular season”. The Masters 1000 event in Paris-Bercy is the last chance that anyone has to qualify for the ATP World Tour Finals, or year-end championships. Five players (Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, David Ferrer, Juan Martin Del Potro, and Tomas Berdych) have already locked up their spots, while Andy Murray has been forced to withdraw while he heals from his back surgery. That leaves three remaining spots in the Finals, and there are in theory eight players who can earn them.

At the bottom of this group, the situation is both the simplest and the least plausible. Mikhail Youzhny and Nicolas Almagro both can qualify—as of now. They would need to win Paris and have several players in front of them lose early. Without getting too far into the details, it is enough to know that neither of them can qualify if Richard Gasquet wins a single match. Tommy Haas is in a similar but slightly better situation. If he wins Bercy, he probably qualifies, although it is possible that he could win and still not qualify.

The fourth long shot is Milos Raonic, who is in the midst of his best season but relatively quiet recently. He can automatically qualify for the Finals if he wins Paris. A finalist run also will get him into London if his semifinal opponent is not Gasquet or Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. Still, it is hard to imagine that any of Youzhny, Almagro, Haas, or Raonic will qualify.

On the other hand, it is hard to imagine a way in which Roger Federer does not qualify. He needs only one win in Paris, against Youzhny or Kevin Anderson, to lock up his spot. If Federer loses his first match, it still would take a miracle for him to not make it.  Stanislas Wawrinka would need to reach one semifinal, while Raonic defeats Gasquet in the other. Thus, Federer has his spot all but officially locked up.

Unless Raonic or Haas pull off a miracle run, the last two spots are not as complicated either. Stanislas Wawrinka can feel somewhat safe if he wins just one match because it would guarantee that he stays ahead of either Tsonga or Gasquet.  If Wawrinka reaches the quarterfinals, he would qualify unless Raonic reaches the final or Haas wins the Paris title.

The most important match in this tournament, though, will be the third-round clash between the two Frenchmen, Richard Gasquet and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. Assuming they both get there, not a guarantee as Gasquet has been bothered recently by injuries, they will be competing for a spot in the Finals. Barring the aforementioned miracle runs from Raonic or Haas, the winner of that all-French matchup will punch his ticket to London.

Bercy is a tournament of upsets, though, for many players are tired from the year or  are looking ahead to the World Tour Finals or next season. Anything can happen, and it is always a tournament worth watching.