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The Return to Europe: ATP Previews of Moscow, Stockholm, and Vienna

Oct 12th 2013

Between the last two Masters 1000 tournaments on the ATP schedule lie two weeks of European indoor tournaments.  The first of those features three events at the 250 level, each of which features exactly one man in the top 10.  Moscow, Stockholm, and Vienna also set the stage for more significant tournaments in Basel and Valencia the following week. 

Richard Gasquet

Moscow:

Top half:  Dismissed in his Shanghai opener, Richard Gasquet still can clinch a berth in the World Tour Finals if he collects cheaper points from ATP 250 events such as these.  The top seed in Moscow has produced more consistent tennis over the course of the season than the admittedly talented but streaky men around them.  Unless the flat groundstrokes of Marcos Baghdatis catch him off guard at the outset, Gasquet can expect a straightforward route to the semifinals past journeymen like compatriot Adrian Mannarino.  Next Saturday, though, a more intriguing obstacle might emerge in third seed Janko Tipsarevic.  While he has floundered for most of 2013, outside a second-week appearance at the US Open, the Serb won the Moscow title this year and may gain confidence from that memory.  Sporadically impressive during the summer, Denis Istomin could battle Tipsarevic in a contest of bold, streamlined two-handed backhands.  And one should not forget the looming presence of Ivo Karlovic, still an ace machine even in faded form.

Bottom half:  Among three qualifiers and clay specialist Horacio Zeballos stands Alexandr Dolgopolov, a mercurial showman whose results have not yet equaled his potential.  The same statement might apply to young Lithuanian Ricardas Berankis, who has struggled to compensate for his small size.  That weak third quarter could produce a surprise semifinalist, then, not unlike surprise champion Joao Sousa in Kuala Lumpur this fall.  Sousa now holds a seed in Moscow, courtesy of that accomplishment.  The Portuguese underdog shares the fourth quarter with three veteran Italians, including second seed Andreas Seppi.  Roger Federer’s Wimbledon nemesis, Sergiy Stakhovsky, sets his sights on an early upset of Sousa and the distant prospect of an all-Ukrainian semifinal against Dolgopolov.  Stakhovsky’s aggressive, forwardly mobile game might suit the Moscow courts better than the styles of the Southern European men near him.

David Ferrer

Stockholm:

Top half:  Having qualified already for the World Tour Finals, world No. 4 David Ferrer can eye no significant goals for the remainder of 2013.  Nevertheless, Ferrer needs a series of more consistent results to rebuild his confidence late in a poor second half.  He has fallen to opponents such as Dmitry Tursunov, Alex Bogomolov, and Florian Mayer at non-majors since recovering from an ankle injury.  One of two stagnating hopefuls will confront him in his first match, either the rough-hewn power of Jack Sock or the multifaceted versatility of Bernard Tomic.  More intimidating than eighth seed Ivan Dodig are Ferrer’s potential semifinal opponents.  Jerzy Janowicz scored his breakthrough on indoor hard courts last fall, consolidating his status with a Wimbledon semifinal.  Before he can face Ferrer, who halted him in the Paris Masters 1000 final a year ago, Ernests Gulbis will hope to continue the best season of his career at the Pole’s expense.  The power-soaked winner of that quarterfinal should present an intriguing contrast of styles against Ferrer.

Bottom half:  A spearhead for the ATP’s next generation of stars, Milos Raonic received a wildcard into Stockholm after an early exit at Shanghai.  But that disappointment should not deceive.  Raonic’s loss may have emerged in part from fatigue, caused by consecutive finals appearances in Bangkok and Tokyo.  The broad-shouldered Canadian holds the second seed and with it the possibility of a quarterfinal meeting with another wildcard.  A Frenchman who might meet Raonic on more important occasions in the future, Benoit Paire should feast on the clay specialists separating them in that section.  The frustrating Grigor Dimitrov continues to play to the level of the competition, defeating Novak Djokovic and winning sets from Rafael Nadal this year while losing to Grega Zemlja and Roberto Bautista-Agut.  Dimitrov brings a four-match losing streak to Stockholm, while projected quarterfinalist Kevin Anderson has won only two of his last eight.  One of those two seeds will seize fresh hope as the struggles of the other continue.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga

Vienna:

Top half:  In three tournaments since returning from a knee injury, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has produced unpredictable results.  The top seed in Vienna sandwiched a second-round loss in Tokyo between a final in Metz and a semifinal in Shanghai, where he capitalized on a weak draw.  As he attempts to climb further up the hierarchy in the Race to the World Tour Finals, Tsonga might confront a similarly surging compatriot in Gael Monfils.  Upsetting Roger Federer en route to the Shanghai quarterfinals, Monfils is not the only upset candidate in this section.  Daniel Brands ambushed Federer and threatened Rafael Nadal this summer, both times on clay, showing a habit of rising to the occasion.  So has Vasek Pospisil after upsets of two top-10 opponents on hard courts this year.  By contrast, Fabio Fognini and Pospisil’s celebrated first-round opponent, Lleyton Hewitt, appear to be running on fumes as the offseason nears.

Bottom half:  While Vienna lacks many Austrian men, even Austrian No. 1 Jurgen Melzer, the tournament features several notable players from the region.  Question marks shroud Tommy Haas, who retired with a back injury in Shanghai last week, but Philipp Kohlschreiber shone there in taking eventual finalist Juan Martin Del Potro to the brink of defeat.  Curiously, the two Germans with one-handed backhands never have met on a hard court, and only one of their five meetings has come away from German soil.  Among those hoping to forestall that semifinal matchup is Lukas Rosol, the Czech giant-killer who lacks the consistency to string together more than one or two strong results.  His compatriot, veteran Radek Stepanek, has split his six career meetings and four hard-court meetings with Haas.  Stepanek brings some momentum to Vienna after winning consecutive challenger titles.