The top two men in tennis aim to arrange their third Miami meeting and a sequel to their classic 2011 final.  Plenty of evidence suggests that they will, but not everything at the 2014 Sony Open has gone according to plan.

Rafael Nadal vs. Tomas Berdych:  Welcome to the ATP version of Serena Williams and Maria Sharapova, with Nadal emulating his fellow No. 1 and Berdych impersonating the Russian champion.  Nadal has won 16 straight meetings from Berdych since the start of 2007, including 20 consecutive sets early in that span.  While the Czech has come closer to halting his futility since then, he has struggled to find answers for the topspin on Nadal’s left-handed forehand.  Not one of the ATP’s best movers, Berdych often is caught flat-footed by that stroke when the Spaniard hits behind him. 

Nadal looked less imperious in his quarterfinal victory over Milos Raonic than in his emphatic earlier matches.  Berdych plays a programmatic brand of first-strike tennis somewhat similar to Raonic, albeit more consistent, but the gap in athleticism separating the two semifinalists should loom large on a slow court.  So should the gap in competitive desire, which has allowed Nadal to win most of the close sets between them.

Kei Nishikori vs. Novak Djokovic:  The Sony Open Cinderella via Japan (and Bradenton) has claimed two top-five victims in David Ferrer and Roger Federer, so he should have the confidence to topple a third.   Nishikori showed gritty resilience during both of his upsets, saving four match points against Ferrer and somehow erasing a set-and-break deficit against Federer.  Curiously, he won his only previous hard-court meeting with Djokovic, although it came during the fall indoor season in 2011, when the Serb lacked energy and motivation.  The scent of an Indian Wells/Miami double should provide plenty of motivation, by contrast.  

While these men deploy a similarly steady, balanced baseline game, Djokovic creates a little more power and a little more depth.  Those advantages should win him the battle of court positioning during neutral rallies.  As a result, Nishikori may need to leave his high-percentage comfort zone and play closer to the lines earlier in the point.  That’s a difficult way to win against the best defender in the ATP.