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Nadal, Berdych, Serena, Li: Sony Open on Thursday

Mar 27th 2014

Accelerating toward its climax, the Sony Open features two men’s quarterfinals and the women’s semifinals on Thursday.  Of the eight players scheduled to take the court in Miami, only one has not reached a major final.

Rafael Nadal

Rafael Nadal vs. Milos Raonic:  Big servers take Nadal out of his comfort zone into an exercise of staccato tennis that he compared to being a soccer goalie.  But rarely do they take him out of a tournament.  Nadal never has lost to giants Ivo Karlovic and John Isner despite often playing tight matches against them.  Closer in his baseline style to Isner than the net-rushing Karlovic, Raonic has not even played a tight match against Nadal.  In four meetings, he has not won a set or forced a tiebreak.  Nadal has produced blistering tennis in his last two matches as he surrendered five total games to Denis Istomin and Fabio Fognini.  The competition raises a notch now, but only a notch, for a man heavily favored to reach his fourth Miami final.  Unless Raonic maintains an outstanding first-serve percentage, that one weapon won’t compensate on a slow hard court for Nadal’s advantages in all other areas.

Alexandr Dolgopolov vs. Tomas Berdych:  A contrast of styles awaits in this men’s quarterfinal as well, pitting eccentric improvisations against mechanical serve-forehand combinations.  Berdych held his serve relentlessly against John Isner, which wasn’t surprising, and also held his nerve in tight moments, which was.  The Czech quietly has started to compile what could become a career year, blending greater consistency with his straightforward first-strike power.  If Berdych is playing his best tennis in recent memory, though, Dolgopolov is playing the best tennis of his life.  With two top-three upsets in his last two tournaments, the Ukrainian has started to string together strong results for the first time.  Steady and straightforward usually wins in the ATP, but it didn’t at Indian Wells when Dolgopolov gradually unhinged Raonic.  Can he do what Isner couldn’t and fluster Berdych too?

Serena Williams vs. Maria Sharapova:  Some fans view this matchup as a blockbuster clash of titans whenever it occurs.  This is unwarranted considering Serena’s total dominance over the non-rivalry, which has spanned 15 consecutive meetings since the start of 2005.  Some speculate that Sharapova’s victory in the 2004 Wimbledon final may have fired an unquenchable thirst for revenge in her victim that day.  It seems just as likely that this matchup simply brings out the best in Serena.  She essentially plays the same game as Sharapova—except better, especially on serve.  Even for a competitor as gritty as Sharapova, belief is fragile and elusive after a double-digit losing streak to a certain opponent.  Just how elusive became clear when they met in the Miami final last year.  Sharapova led by a set and a break, only to collapse and lose 10 straight games when the first chinks appeared in her armor.

Li Na

Dominika Cibulkova vs. Li Na:  Although Li’s command of this matchup has not reached Serena-Sharapova levels, her 6-0 record against Cibulkova is significant enough to matter.  Still, the Slovak did not lack chances to seize control of their encounter at Indian Wells just two weeks ago.  Struggling on her serve during the second half of that match, Li needed to save late break points that would have placed the match on her opponent’s racket.  As with the Serena-Sharapova matchup, however, it is unclear what Cibulkova can do to trouble Li on a day when both women bring their best tennis.  The Australian Open champion wields a more balanced game, can match the road-running Slovak for movement and athleticism, and projects more first-strike power on serves and returns.  Li’s 49 unforced errors in her last match should give Cibulkova a glimmer of hope.  In fact, that’s her only hope.