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A Look at the Draws at the Halfway Point

Jan 21st 2017

It is the halfway point of the Australian Open as the singles draws have whittled down to the final 16. It has been a tournament where upsets have reshaped the brackets. Now is a good time to re-examine the draws prior to week two.

Men’s Draw

Obviously, the elimination of Novak Djokovic restructured the men’s draw and opened the door for several players. Djokovic was the two-seed and without him looming at the bottom of the draw, players such as Dominic Thiem, David Goffin, and Grigor Dimitrov now have a renewed optimism that they can put together a run to the semifinals.

Thiem, the 8-seed, defeated Benoit Paire and will now face 11th seeded David Goffin of Belgium with the winner advancing to the quarterfinals. Goffin defeated Thiem in four sets a year ago, in Melbourne.

Meanwhile,the red-hot Dimitrov swept past veteran Richard Gasquet and will now face giant-killer Denis Istomin who defeated Djokovic earlier in the week. Dimitrov would like his chances against Istomin who has played two back-to-back grueling five setters. How much will he have left in the tank?  A quarterfinal match between Dimitrov and Thiem would feature two players who have been pegged by many to be in the next wave of champions, playing for a spot in the semifinals.

While upsets have changed the bottom quarter of the men’s bracket, the Raonic portion of the draw has remained intact. The Canadian will be a strong favorite to advance past Roberto Bautista Agut, who survived a tough five-setter to reach the final 16.

Meanwhile, many are now back onboard the Rafael Nadal train given his play thus far. Nadal survived a battle with upstart Alexander Zverev and will now face veteran and six-seeded Gael Monfils with the winner reaching a potential quarterfinal encounter with Raonic. Nadal and Monfils are no strangers on the court, but Nadal has won 12 of their 14 career meetings.

The top half of the men’s draw will be a test for all as Murray, Federer, Nishikori, Wawrinka and Tsonga have all progressed. With Cilic eliminated, Tsonga must like his chances. He has Daniel Evans next and perhaps Wawrinka on the horizon in the quarterfinals.

Tsonga and Wawrinka have each had success against the other historically but have not played since the 2015 French Open when the Swiss won in four sets. But Wawrinka will need to get by Andreas Seppi, who has a history of strong play in Melbourne and defeated Nick Kyrgios earlier in the tournament.

Murray will be a heavy favorite against Mischa Zverev and would play the winner of Roger Federer and Kei Nishikori, which could be one of the best matches of the tournament.

Women’s Draw

While most of the top half of the women’s draw has gone close to what was expected, the exit of 4th-seeded Simona Halep opened the door for a few competitors.

Angelique Kerber appears to be on a collision course with number 7 Garbine Muguruza if she can get by the dangerous Coco Vandeweghe. But in the second quarter of the draw, Venus Williams has emerged as the favorite to advance to the semifinals with the departure of Halep.

Venus will be a big favorite against Mona Barthel in her next match and would see either Svetlana Kuznetsova or Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova if she is successful. Interestingly, Kuznetsova holds a 4-2 head-to-head advantage over Williams while Venus has a slight 3-2 edge against Pavlyuchenkova.

Most of the favorites in the bottom half of the women’s draw have advanced with the glaring omission of 3-seed Agnieszka Radwanska. With her departure, Karolina Pliskova appears to be the strong favorite to advance to the semifinals.

The Czech advanced after a battle with Jelena Ostapenko and her power game should suit her well against Daria Gavrilova. The scrappy Gavrilova could find it extremely difficult to deal with her first strike tennis despite having the home, Australian crowd behind her. But Pliskova has a favorable draw and with a win against the Australian, she would face either a qualifier in Jennifer Brady or the veteran Mirjana Lucic-Baroni.

Serena Williams looks to be the heavy favorite to return to the quarterfinals with Barbora Strycova next. However, Johanna Konta served notice that she will be a factor after dispatching Caroline Wozniacki. Konta has never lost to her next opponent Ekaterina Makarova, in three head-to-head matches. But the Russian feels at home in Melbourne and has played some of her best tennis there. Either of these players has the confidence to step up to the American without being intimidated if they meet.

The draws have produced some unexpected results in the first week and certainly could produce more in the second half of the fortnight. There is clearly the potential for a compelling week two at the happy slam.