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Keys to Biscayne: Sony Open Women's Draw Preview

Mar 17th 2014

Still trying to catch your breath from Indian Wells?  So are many of the top women as they reunite in Miami.  After several contenders suffered early setbacks in the desert, they will look to strike back in the second WTA Premier Mandatory event of March.  The problem is that the world No. 1 has rejoined their ranks at her home tournament.

Serena Williams

First quarter:  After a strong start to the 2014 season, winning a Premier title in Brisbane, Serena Williams fell in consecutive events to Ana Ivanovic and Alize Cornet.  Injury played a role in her Australian Open loss again, so she will aim to shake off the rust at a tournament that she has dominated more than most.  The six-time Miami champion eyes a relatively accommodating draw, considering the magnitude of this event.  Samantha Stosur famously defeated Serena at the 2011 US Open, but she has not played her best tennis in over a year and fell to the American in Miami before.  Perhaps more likely to meet Serena in the final 16 is Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, who won the biggest title of her career in February before flaming out at Indian Wells.

The other top-10 seeds in this quarter echoed Pavlyuchenkova in failing to extend encouraging February form to the desert.  While Doha finalist Angelique Kerber fell to a Spanish clay specialist at Indian Wells, Sara Errani exited in the third round there following a finals appearance at the Paris Indoors.  Errani’s downward trend has extended since Roland Garros last season and shows little sign of reversing itself.  More stagnant than in descent, Kerber might fall victim to the explosive shot-making of Sorana Cirstea, who routed her in Miami last year.  Errani faces one of the season’s fast starters, Ekaterina Makarova, in a battle of elite doubles players.  None of these women should trouble Serena on a hard court if she is healthy and motivated, as is usually the case in Miami.

Maria Sharapova

Second quarter:  Not since 2007 has Maria Sharapova lost before the final in Miami, almost a home tournament for a player who honed her craft at the Nick Bolletieri Academy and still resides in Bradenton, Florida.  That streak is not quite as staggering as it looks because Sharapova has withdrawn from Miami with injury a few times, but she still will seek her fourth consecutive final here.  It will not come easily in a draw where she occupies the same half as Serena Williams, and her tepid form at Indian Wells suggests that she cannot look too far ahead.  Sharapova has fallen victim before to the streaky but scorching games of Lucie Safarova and Sabine Lisicki, two of her possible pre-quarterfinal opponents. 

Can Flavia Pennetta build on her surprise run to the Indian Wells title with a strong effort in Miami?  Underdogs usually bask in the glow of such triumphs too long to capitalize immediately, but the 32-year-old Italian has a reasonably soft draw.  A third-round meeting against fellow Indian Wells champion Ana Ivanovic intrigues.  While Ivanovic, very close to Pennetta in ranking, has achieved much more in her career, she has cooled off after upsetting Serena at the Australian Open.  The Serb rarely has enjoyed her trips to Miami, never advancing past the quarterfinals.  Nor has eighth seed Petra Kvitova, accustomed to exiting early in her spring trips to North America.  A rematch of an Indian Wells three-setter against two-time major champion Svetlana Kuznetsova lies ahead for the Czech lefty.

Simona Halep

Third quarter:  Dominant at non-majors over the last 10 months, Simona Halep still has not solved the Williams sisters.  She could face the resurgent Venus Williams in a third-round clash of the women who split key February titles.  A week after Halep triumphed in Doha, Venus stunned the Dubai field by racing to the title with victories over Kvitova and Caroline Wozniacki, among others.  Also in this section is the woman whom the elder Williams defeated in the Dubai final, a day after she had defeated Serena.  Alize Cornet did not lose much momentum in the desert, tightly contesting her loss to eventual finalist Radwanska.  The same could be said of Australian Open finalist Dominika Cibulkova, who nearly reached the semifinals at Indian Wells as she extended the most consistent form of her career.  But Halep, who did reach the semifinals there, still looks hungry for success with her energy undimmed.

Questions shroud the rest of this section, anchored by injured Indian Wells runner-up Agnieszka Radwanska.  If Radwanska is fit to play, she could challenge for a title that she won just two years ago.  Otherwise, the strongest contender to reach the quarterfinals surely would be Eugenie Bouchard, the Canadian prodigy who reached her first major semifinal at the Australian Open.  Bouchard battled Halep deep into a final set at Indian Wells, so she might leap at the chance to earn her revenge.  Having knocked off Sara Errani in the desert, Bouchard will be heavily favored to upset Errani’s reeling doubles partner, Roberta Vinci, in Miami.

Li Na

Fourth quarter:  After her familiar season-starting surge, Australian Open champion Li Na has tapered in form over her last two tournaments.  The world No. 2 did reach the semifinals at Indian Wells, but her uneven performances there stemmed in part from efforts to refine her serve.  While it is difficult to imagine her losing to the faded Daniela Hantuchova or clay specialist Carla Suarez Navarro, an unseeded player might surprise Li.  Two names of interest lurk in her vicinity, the resurfacing Alisa Kleybanova and hard-hitting home hope Madison Keys.  Meanwhile, one of the draw’s more notable first-round matches pits another American, Christina McHale, against tenacious veteran Zheng Jie.

Much more drama might unfold in the opposite section of this quarter, bookended by two women who have enjoyed more success in Indian Wells than Miami.  Jelena Jankovic won a battle of former desert champions from Caroline Wozniacki last week, extending the Dane’s indifferent 2014 season.  Firmly entrenched in the top 10 again, Jankovic may have her work cut out against fiery Spanish shot-maker Garbine Muguruza.  The Venezuelan-born Muguruza has won 17 matches already this year, including her first title, although she fell in her first match at Indian Wells.  Arguably more dangerous is the first seed ahead of Wozniacki.  Second-ranked American Sloane Stephens lost both of their hard-court meetings last year in straight sets, but she will bring momentum from a quarterfinal run in the desert. 

Check back soon for a preview of the men’s draw at the companion ATP Masters 1000 event in Miami!