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French Open: Serena Williams Absence Looms Large

May 28th 2017

With the 2017 French Open set to get underway, Serena Williams' absence looms over the WTA Tour almost as much as her presence.

Williams announced her pregnancy in April, seemingly leaving the door wide open for other Top 10 players like Angelique Kerber, Garbine Muguruza, Karolina Pliskova, Johanna Konta and Simona Halep.

However, except for Halep, most of the top tier players have been inconsistent at best and dreadful at worst.  It's as if Kerber, Muguruza, and Pliskova put so much effort into toppling Williams that without the bullseye on her back to keep them focused, they've gone off target. 

Meanwhile, up and coming players like No. 6 Elina Svitolina, No. 14 Kristina Mladenovic, No. 27 Daria Kasatkina, No. 45 Jelena Ostapenko and No. 53 Anett Kontaveit, have put together solid clay court seasons.

Elina Svitolina

Last year, these players probably didn't have dethroning Williams on their to-do lists. Yet, here they are, in a position to emerge from the WTA's murky parity to win a first Grand Slam.

Svitolina, not Kerber, leads the WTA in points won this season. Mladenovic is ranked No. 7 in the singles race and is 11-3 on clay this year.

Ostapenko, 19, reached the semifinals in Prague and the finals in Charleston, where she lost to Kasatkina. Kontaveit advanced to the quarterfinals in Rome and Stuttgart. 

Many oddsmakers give Muguruza and Halep the best shot at winning the French Open. Muguruza is defending champion and Halep finished runner-up to Maria Sharapova in 2014.

Halep's having a strong clay-court season. But earlier this week, she raised doubts about even participating in the tournament due to an ankle injury. Two weeks grinding it out on clay is never what the doctor orders. 

The volatility at the top is odd considering Williams played in essentially just one tournament this season, the Australian Open. You'd think someone would have taken charge by now.

Kerber reclaimed the No. 1 ranking this month. However, her season has been anything but first-rate. She's ranked No. 12 in the WTA's singles points race and remains title-less this season. She's 19-12. Last year, she went 63-18.

After losing her first match in Rome, Kerber told reporters (via ASAP Sports transcripts), “I don't know. I think it's for sure not the easiest time right now for me, but I think that I have to looking for solutions right now. I think that my movement is not the best, especially on clay.”

Perhaps plagued by front-runner syndrome, Kerber continues to search for answers to the many questions that have surfaced in her game.

“I mean, everybody knows I'm not a clay court specialist,” she told reporters. “I was not playing good last year, as well. I had a great year, but I mean, these few weeks I was not playing good…Of course, I mean, it's a new situation also to being No. 1 but you cannot thinking about this. I mean, it's still a big privilege, but I try to finding my way to coming back.”

Angelique Kerber

That type of uncertainty at the top is sure to give the second tier players some hope. Still, the younger players will have to weave through some hungry veterans who may feel this is their last real shot at winning a Slam.

Thirty-something players, Venus Williams, Sam Stosur, Svetlana Kuznetsova, Sara Errani and Lucie Safarova have all been to a French Open final.

Winner of the 2009 French Open and runner-up in 2006, Kuznetsova practically grew up on clay. She was only seven when she began training at the Sanchez-Casal academy in Spain. She's been to the quarterfinals or better, seven times.

Venus reached the French Open final in 2002, where she lost to Serena. Unlike her younger sister, Venus has never embraced the clay. Safarova reached the final in 2015, also losing to Serena. She could be a dark horse in this tournament.

Stosur has one of the best clay-court records in women's tennis. In fact, she's No. 4 on the WTA's Clay Court Power Rankings. Muguruza is No. 1.

Like Kerber, Muguruza is struggling to find her 2016 form. After a first-round loss in Madrid, the Spaniard spoke with reporters about challenges she faces in Roland Garros.

“I mean, Paris is just there. It's another tournament. What I'm trying is, you know, to have less bad days in the year,” she said. “Doesn't matter Paris or no Paris is there. I mean, for the entire year. That's what is important, to try in these situations to turn it around maybe.”

Unsteady and searching for answers seems to be a common thread among the top players. So enter the surging youngsters like Svitolina and Mladenovic with confidence and game intact.

In accessing the women's field, ESPN's Peter Bodo concluded this might be the most exciting French Open in some time. “It's not looking pretty atop the field at the moment. On the other hand, if you accept the WTA is loaded with talented players, and that the absence or compromised state of some top players has created a unique, historic opportunity… Think about it: Anyone can win this thing. How often have we been able to say that about a Grand Slam tennis tournament?”

Mladenovic is having her best season. She's also French. She's never advanced beyond the quarterfinals at a Grand Slam, but every superstar gets a breakthrough at some point. She would be the first Frenchwoman to win the French Open since Mary Pierce in 2000.

Kristina Mladenovic

New York Times blogger Geoff MacDonald included Mladenovic and Svitolina on his short list of “players to watch.”

It's been six years since Serena missed a Grand Slam. The landscape of women's tennis has changed dramatically. Back then, Serena was outside the Top 10. Caroline Wozniacki was No. 1 and Li Na and Kim Clijsters were in the Top 10.  Both are mommies who have since retired.

During a recent conference call (per ESPN) former player and ESPN analyst, Pam Shriver summed up the state of the women's game sans Serena. “Right now, honestly, there is no heir apparent, I for one don’t think we’re going to have a dominant player like Serena for a while. I think we’re going to have an era when she’s retired, it’s going to be like a jump ball until that great next champion comes forward.”

To win the French Open, a player need only dominate for two weeks. Beginning Sunday, like a service toss, the jump ball goes up. Who snatches the title?

It's up for grabs.