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Djokovic Soars Past Nadal into Indian Wells Final

Mar 19th 2016

The sheer numbers are staggering. Novak Djokovic against Rafael Nadal may not have the legendary aura of Bjorn Borg against John McEnroe, Pete Sampras against Andre Agassi, or Roger Federer against Rafael Nadal, but it has broken many other records. The Serb and the Spaniard have squared off more than any other pair of men in tennis history, meeting at every major and every Masters 1000 tournament as well as contesting two finals at the World Tour Finals in London.

When they met for the first time in the desert, nine long years ago, the 19-year-old Djokovic proved no match for Nadal, who already had won two major titles and reached a Wimbledon final. But the tables would turn a year later when Novak routed Rafa in a semifinal at Indian Wells, and their rivalry has rocketed through a series of whiplash-inducing momentum shifts ever since. Djokovic has held the upper hand most recently and claimed the lead for the first time in their 47th meeting when he captured the Doha final from Nadal earlier this year. A chasm yawned between their games at that stage, with the world No. 1 in peak form as his rival sought to rebound from a demoralizing 2015 campaign. The Doha match marked the Serb’s ninth win in their last 10 meetings, and he also had won nine of their 10 matches at Masters 1000 hard-court tournaments since that Indian Wells final in 2007.

Novak Djokovic

However, as Djokovic pointed out after his quarterfinal, there were plenty of reasons to expect a more compelling battle when they met at the BNP Paribas Open. The slower, higher-bouncing surface is friendlier to the spin with which the Spaniard slathers his groundstrokes. Moreover, while Nadal had not looked his sharpest throughout the week, he had shown plenty of competitive spark in his last two victories. He sounded calm and confident after dismantling world No. 6 Kei Nishikori in straight sets, producing his most confident tennis of the season so far. For his part, Djokovic had not yet found the form usually associated with the world No. 1. He dropped a set to a player outside the top 100, failed to serve out more than one set, and admitted that he found it challenging to execute his game in the dry, scorching desert conditions.

The two champions lost no time in digging into the trenches. An epic opening rally, climaxing with a Djokovic backhand winner, hinted at the physicality of the exchanges in the first set. Nadal jumped out to a fast start, earning a nerve-calming hold and then easily breaking Djokovic in his first service game. The Serb struggled with the high sun as he committed consecutive double faults, while Nadal swung more confidently than his opponent and generated better depth on his groundstrokes. However, Djokovic swiftly struck back, earning a break point of his own after a 79-mph second serve from Nadal left the Spaniard scrambling from the outset. The world No. 1 converted the break by transitioning from defense to offense in his familiar sinuous fashion.

The next few games proceeded less eventfully, both players committing a few more early errors in rallies than usual. As the set reached its latter stages, though, the quality of their all-court exchanges gradually rose. Both Djokovic and Nadal started to measure their groundstrokes more consistently to the baseline, each aiming to push the other onto the back foot. Opportunity knocked for the world No. 1 when he crushed a clean winner off a 104-mph first serve from Nadal to set up a 15-30 chance at 3-3. The Spaniard would snuff out two break points later in the game, which would become one of the most entertaining of the match. Some highlights included an exchange of multiple angled drop shots with both men at the net, as well as a baseline rally in which the court echoed with scraping shoes as each of them slid to retrieve the other’s penetrating blows.

That game felt like a momentum shift at the time, but it would take something more than that to ruffle the Serb. The pressure of later serving to stay in the set at 4-5 did appear to fluster him. Djokovic had threatened Nadal’s serve more than the Spaniard had threatened his during most of the set. He backed himself into an uncomfortable corner, though, when he forced the issue on consecutive points. Rushing the net prematurely behind an ordinary approach, Djokovic was punished by his rival’s suffocating court coverage. A set point beckoned for Nadal to seize the upper hand. Showing the poise of a champion, Djokovic swatted it away with an explosive inside-out forehand. He then methodically tugged Nadal from side to side along the baseline to escape the game.

Another pair of service holds took the two stars to a tiebreak for the first time since their clash at the Canadian Masters 1000 tournament in 2013. This crossroads was critical considering their history. Whenever one of them had claimed a first-set tiebreak from the other, that player had gone on to win the match in straight sets. Perhaps sensing the magnitude of the moment, the Serb and the Spaniard played a handful of tight points to start the tiebreak. Nadal lost his first three service points, but Djokovic fared only marginally better before they changed ends with the world No. 1 holding a 4-2 lead. Nadal gritted his way through a pair of tenacious baseline points to close within 4-5.

Rafael Nadal

At that stage, the Spaniard played his most spectacular point of the match. Djokovic appeared to have put away an inside-in forehand, but Nadal put his racket on it, and the Serb failed to do enough to bury the ensuing smash. Lunging across the court like a panther, Rafa pulled off one of his trademark passing shots from the level of his ankles. A lesser man might have flinched with the tiebreak still in the balance after such a miraculous retrieval. But, while nobody knew it at the time, this marked the high point of Nadal’s fortunes. An unruffled Djokovic cracked a service winner to earn his first set point and then outlasted his rival in a nervy baseline exchange to capture the set in 69 minutes.

Considering how well Nadal had played in that first set, only to lose it, there seemed little chance for him to sweep the next two sets from the surging Serb. Djokovic started to open his shoulders and swing more freely once he claimed the lead. Across the net, Nadal’s serve began to waver. While Djokovic cruised through smooth hold after smooth hold, his opponent found each service game increasingly perilous. Nadal battled tenaciously to produce two multiple-deuce holds, reluctant to allow the Serb the stranglehold that he scented.

However, what seemed like the inevitable finally arrived. Serving at 2-3, a pair of weary groundstrokes gave Djokovic two break points, and Nadal tamely netted a backhand to drop serve. Offered separation from his resilient rival, Djokovic held at love during a stretch in which he won 15 of 18 points. One gallant last stand remained in Nadal, who would avert five match points (three consecutively) in the final game of the match. Just as the fans began to wonder whether a stunning comeback might lie ahead, Djokovic earned a sixth chance and carefully kept the ball deep down the middle of the court. His high-percentage play reaped the desired reward, a Nadal forehand that floated over the baseline to end the match.

With his 7-6(5) 6-2 victory, Djokovic advanced to his 17th consecutive final at the elite group of ATP events defined by the majors, the Masters 1000 tournaments, and the World Tour Finals. He has won all 11 of his Masters 1000 finals against opponents outside the Big Four, and he has swept all seven of his finals at Indian Wells and Miami since 2011. As if the world No. 1 needed any further source of confidence, he has won 13 of the 14 sets that he has contested in five career matches against Milos Raonic, who will challenge him for the BNP Paribas Open title on Sunday. But the fast-improving Canadian, who has become more than just a huge serve, will be eager to show that he has taken a step forward in the 14 months since he last encountered Djokovic. A fascinating contrast of styles between Missile Raonic and the greatest counterpuncher in ATP history looms as a climactic duel in the desert.