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Can Andy Murray Break Through in Melbourne?

Jan 22nd 2016

Great Britain may be famous for Wimbledon, the most celebrated tennis venue in the world, but it is not well-known for producing world-class tennis players. Of course, Fred Perry won eight Grand Slam titles and totally dominated the sport between 1933 and 1935, Ann Jones won three majors in the 1960s, and Tim Henman and Greg Rusedski were prominent in the world rankings from the mid-1990s to the mid-2000s, but that is about all there was in terms of famous British tennis players.

Until Andy Murray came along and became one of the greatest sportspeople the country has ever produced. The resilient Scot has already achieved so much, and many in Britain would accept that he has nothing left to prove. However, he could be about to have the greatest year of his life in 2016, with a baby on the way in February, an Olympic gold medal to defend in August, and the chance to win the Australian Open title that he has come so close to winning four times previously.

Andy Murray

Murray, 28, accepts it will be extremely difficult to topple Novak Djokovic from his Melbourne perch. He recently admitted to The Daily Telegraph that he is hoping the Serb will ‘have a drop-off’ in form. But he may find the tournament becomes harder and harder to win as he gets older, so he must go all out to win it this time around. And it undoubtedly helps that the 2016 draw has been kind to him. Murray has only lost 11 games in his two matches so far – against Alexander Zverev and Sam Groth – and faces Joao Sousa next, before a probable fourth-round clash with Bernard Tomic.

All of this means that, as long as he does not slip up badly in the next few days, the world No. 2 will barely have been tested before the quarterfinal stage. Once there, Murray will expect some kind of challenge from his opponent, most likely either David Ferrer or John Isner, but very few people will believe he will lose or even be taken to five sets. His anticipated semifinal opponent, Stan Wawrinka, is an entirely different proposition. The Swiss No. 2 won his first Grand Slam title in Melbourne two years ago and reached the semifinals last year, so he feels totally at home on Rod Laver Arena. Any victory over Wawrinka in the last four would surely provide Murray with the confidence he needs to (probably) take on the player who has won 10 of their most recent 11 meetings:  Djokovic.

To beat the Serb, Murray could hope to do what Wawrinka did at last year’s French Open and play the match of his life. Or he could try to find a weakness in Djokovic’s game and exploit it. Or he could keep his standard of tennis high throughout and hope the world No.1 is not quite at his best. Whichever approach he adopts, Murray cannot afford to be below par in a match against the man who won three of the four Grand Slam titles on offer in 2015.

If, somehow, someone else confounds the odds and upsets Djokovic before the final, the pressure on Murray to win will rocket because he may never again have such a good opportunity. So who might defeat the world No. 1? Roger Federer is obviously the name that springs to mind, and he was the only player to defeat Djokovic more than once last year, so he arguably has a better chance than anyone. Kei Nishikori also has a chance, and if he plays as well as he did to upset Djokovic in the 2014 US Open semifinal, an upset could definitely be in the cards.

While all of those potential finalists are superb players, and one, Federer, is arguably the greatest of all time, none are currently as difficult to beat as Djokovic. Thus, if Murray reaches the final and faces anyone other than the Serb, he must seize the moment and take home the title. He cannot afford to waste a chance like that at the place where he has constantly been so near yet so far over the years. And a triumph in Melbourne would put him within a Roland Garros crown of a career Grand Slam.