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On the Bubble: How Bangkok and Kuala Lumpur Can Shape the Race to London

Sep 24th 2013

Events at the ATP 250 level do not usually draw the strongest of players, with a few exceptions. Often, players at the top have little to gain from these smaller tournaments and would be better advised to get some much-needed rest rather than competing for an additional week. That said, several top players are competing this week in Kuala Lumpur and Bangkok. This week is a great chance to get some match play on these indoor hard courts before the Asian swing kicks into full gear.  And some top players have much more to gain than that.

Tomas Berdych holds the top seed in Bangkok. Roger Federer just moved back past Berdych to world No. 5 two weeks ago. So why is this important? Well, with Andy Murray announcing that he will miss the entirety of the Asian swing with a back injury, whoever holds the No. 5 ranking will be guaranteed a top-four seed at the Masters 1000 tournament in Shanghai in two weeks.  A top-four seed cannot face either of the top two men, Novak Djokovic or Rafael Nadal, until the semifinals. Berdych can gain 60 points for a runner-up result and 100 points if he wins the Bangkok title, which would be enough to jump past Federer and take the fourth  seed in Shanghai.  On the other hand, he cannot pass Federer for that fourth seed if he loses before the final.

Richard Gasquet and Milos Raonic are also competing in Bangkok. While neither of them has as much to gain as Berdych here, there is still much to play for. Gasquet is currently in a tight race with Stanislas Wawrinka for the eighth and final berth at the World Tour Finals in London (the ATP year-end championships) and may be able to pass him in that race if he wins this tournament.  Raonic is also within striking distance of the World Tour Finals, especially with two fall Masters 1000 events remaining to accumulate points.

Bangkok entrants Gilles Simon and Mikhail Youzhny are probably long shots for London, but they are players in strong recent form who will have an outside chance if others stumble while they stay hot.

Stanislas Wawrinka

In Kuala Lumpur, Stanislas Wawrinka will try to keep his lead over Gasquet for that last berth in London, which stands currently at 160 points. Wawrinka also will pass compatriot Federer for the seventh spot in the race to London if he wins the Kuala Lumpur title.

While Kuala Lumpur top seed David Ferrer has nothing of tangible significance to play for, he could use the experience on these courts. Indoor hard courts used to be one of his favorite surfaces, for he reached the final of the year-end championships once, but more recently he has struggled on them. He could use the match play moving into the indoor swing of the tour.

For those looking for talent in unexpected places, the Challenger tournament in Orleans, France is worth a look. It is also on an indoor surface similar to most of the Asian events and has an outstanding field this year with nine top-100 players, including world No. 28 Benoit Paire. A title in Orleans is worth 125 points, so the champion will receive half as many points as the champions in Bangkok and Kuala Lumpur. Players who fare well in Orleans might pull off some surprises during the Asian swing.