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Azarenka Ambushes Serena to Capture Indian Wells

Mar 20th 2016

It is a testament to the greatness of Serena Williams that a 3-17 record against her forms the foundation of a rivalry. And yet Victoria Azarenka is the woman in her generation who has come closest to providing Serena with the rival whom she deserves. This fierce pair of competitors contested two three-set US Open finals in 2012-13, Serena finding her weapons (and patience) tested to the limit by the Belarussian’s crisp movement and knack for turning defense into offense. Last year, Azarenka again extended Serena to a final set at both Roland Garros and Wimbledon, while she also twice has taken sets from her at the Australian Open. No other woman in recent years has so consistently tested the American under the brightest lights.

Two of Azarenka’s three previous victories over Serena came on American hard courts in finals at Miami and Cincinnati, so intrigue beckoned before their title tilt in the desert. This relatively slow hard court favors a counterpuncher like Azarenka, who won the BNP Paribas Open in 2012. Until a second-set lull against Karolina Pliskova in her semifinal, the former No. 1 had not dropped a set to any of her overmatched opponents. However, Serena had displayed an even greater level of dominance, dismissing top-five talent and defending champion Simona Halep in straight sets before doing the same to Agnieszka Radwanska. Particularly in the latter match, it was encouraging for the American superstar’s fans to see her thoughtfully constructing points and outmaneuvering her opponent rather than relying on her sheer power to hit through her.

Victoria Azarenka

Having struggled with injuries for most of the last two years, Azarenka would signal her resurgence if she could knock off the world No. 1 to claim her second title at Indian Wells. For Serena, who had boycotted the event for over a decade before returning last year, a third trophy in the desert would make her return especially sweet. After Angelique Kerber had stunned her in the Australian Open final two months ago, moreover, this tournament offered a chance for Serena to restore her aura of invincibility.

The world No. 1 held a massive advantage in one department, perhaps the most crucial in the game:  her serve. While Azarenka has struggled with double faults throughout her career, Serena wields the best first strike in WTA history. If she could land enough first serves to take command of points from the outset, there would be little that her opponent could do to resist her. For her part, Azarenka has established herself as one of the premier returners (perhaps the premier returner) in the women’s game, so this strength-against-strength matchup promised to be one of the key narratives to follow.

Sluggish and flat-footed at the start, Serena lost the first of these battles. She conceded a service break at love with two double faults to start the match. With the world No. 1 wildly misfiring on returns and early in rallies, all that was needed to consolidate the break was the steadiness that Azarenka can routinely produce. Serena would go through her second return game of the match without forcing her opponent to hit a groundstroke.

Granted, some credit for this trend belonged to Azarenka, who served above her usual level for the tournament during much of the match. She struck a timely ace to save a break point at 3-2, not for the last time. This was critical because Serena appeared to have found her range during this game, blasting cross-court forehand returns with intimidating ease. When she could not capitalize on a second-serve return opportunity, though, the Belarussian clung to her lead. Azarenka nearly collected an insurance break after Serena fell into a 0-30 hole at 2-4. The world No. 1 found her first serve just in time to reel off four efficient points and stay within range.

One of the most critical sequences in this final came with Azarenka facing yet another break point in the eighth game. Serena pounded a second-serve return that appeared likely to win the point outright. But Azarenka, using all of her natural athleticism, dove for the shot and put just enough of her racket on it to extend the point. She fired a passing shot winner moments later and navigated past the threat. Azarenka’s ability to force Serena to hit an extra ball, as shown on this point and many others, proved more lethal than the American’s power. Serena often needed to hit three or four winners to finish points, not something that even the foot speed of Halep or Radwanska could force the world No. 1 to do.

Serving for the first set at 5-4, Azarenka rose to the occasion and produced her most comfortable hold of the match. She did not drop a point in establishing the upper hand in the final. Statistics showed that this edge could be vital, since 30 of her 34 previous finals had been won by the player who claimed the first set. Closing out the world No. 1, however, loomed as a challenge larger than Azarenka had faced against most finals opponents.

In a similar start to the first set, Serena meandered through an unimpressive service game. A clean backhand winner by Azarenka, followed by another double fault from the American, left the home hope playing from behind again. Contrary to expectations, there had been no real serving advantage for Serena to that stage, for she had struck fewer aces and nearly as many double faults as her opponent. The key stat of the match remained her futility on break points. Four more of them came and went in the next game. When it ended with consecutive unforced errors on her return, Serena stood motionless behind the baseline, visibly trying to collect her emotions and rein in her frustration.

Serena Williams

Another sequence of sloppy groundstrokes, culminating in a second break of the Williams serve, was too much for the top seed to stomach lightly. She smashed two rackets and earned a point penalty during the changeover. After that burst of emotion, the next few games unfolded uneventfully until Azarenka served for the match after about 75 minutes. Here, it became clear how valuable the extra break was. Nervy serving set up yet another break point for Serena, who finally seized her chance. A thunderous hold in the next game, punctuated by two aces and a service winner, sent Azarenka back out for another attempt to seal the title.

It nearly went awry at the outset. Serena started the game by winning one of the best rallies of the match, during which each women probed all of the angles of the court. The top seed would lead 0-30 and 15-40, crushing pinpoint returns off Azarenka’s second serve. One last time, the Belarusian stood tall, saving the first break point with a clutch ace and managing to settle into a relatively neutral rally on the second. After she predictably outlasted Serena in that exchange, two errant first-serve returns by the world No. 1 ended the championship match.

With her 6-4 6-4 triumph, Azarenka returned to the top 10 and claimed her most significant title since winning her second crown at the Australian Open more than three years ago. Just as importantly, she breathed fresh life into her rivalry with Serena by halting the world No. 1 in a final for the fourth time. Most of her peers lack the belief to challenge the 21-time major champion, so Azarenka’s appetite for this battle is especially refreshing. She will continue charging up the rankings during the spring if she can continue to display the polished, all-court game and relentless competitive fire that emerged here.

While reaching the final at a Premier Mandatory event is a laudable result for anyone, these are matches that Serena expects herself to win. Coupled with her loss to Kerber in the Australian Open final, this outcome suggests a champion less invincible than during her spectacular campaign in 2015. Whether the first two marquee women’s events of the season augur a long-term trend remains to be seen, but this will be something to watch as Serena heads to her home tournament in Miami. Most of the other women’s contenders will join her there for another Premier Mandatory event that begins on Tuesday. None will be hungrier than Azarenka, who already has won two titles in Miami and would relish completing a historic double.