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ATP Players Who Broke Through (or Broke Down) in 2014

Jul 8th 2014

There is no real halfway point of the tennis season, but calling the end of Wimbledon the midpoint isn’t so far off. We’ve had three out of the four majors and five of the nine Masters 1000 tournaments. But with five months left in the 11-month season and many top players taking a bit of a break, now is as good a time as any to look at who has made strides—or backpedaled—so far this year.

Stanislas Wawrinka

The first player on this list is Stan Wawrinka. Wawrinka currently sits at No. 4 in both the rankings and the year-to-date race, while he was world No. 10 a year ago. 4095 of his 5770 ranking points have come this year, with 3000 of those being his Australian Open and Monte Carlo titles. This points to incredible runs for him at a few tournaments, but it also shows a lack of consistency the rest of the year.

Stan has always been capable of making deep runs, but until this year he was rarely able to solve opponents like Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic, or Rafael Nadal. That changed this year in the biggest of occasions. Wawrinka showed a clear belief in himself, which is what won him his first major and Masters 1000 titles this year. He still needs to work on avoiding early exits and poor showings, but he is on the way up in the tennis world. American hard courts suit his game, and if he can bring his best this summer, we may see him a lot closer to Djokovic and Nadal in the rankings come September.

On an opposite trend is Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. He was world No. 8 at this point last year but has fallen to No. 16 this season. Tsonga has finished each of the last three years in the top 10, but that is in serious jeopardy with the way he has played this year. He seems to be the opposite of Wawrinka this season. While also supremely talented, Tsonga has seemed unable to believe he can win matches against top players. He carried that belief with him for many years, usually being the closest to crack the hold the “Big Four” had on Grand Slam and Masters semifinals. Years of disappointment seem to have taken a toll on the Frenchman’s psyche, and it has affected how he competes against lower-ranked players as well. He is still possibly the most physically gifted tennis player in the world, but that won’t get him too far unless he believes that he can win tournaments. And, right now, he doesn’t.

Grigor Dimitrov

One player who has truly broken through this year is Grigor Dimitrov. People will point to his Wimbledon semifinal last week as a breakout performance for the Bulgarian, but that is misleading. This has been a complete breakout year for him. Dimitrov just cracked the top 10 this week. He ended last year outside the top 20 and was not even in the top 30 at this point in 2013. He has won three tournaments this year, including an ATP500 event in Acapulco. His talent finally seems to be clicking, and his all-court game is tremendous to watch.

Several people, including myself, have noted that Dimitrov is breaking out of his “Baby Fed” mold. His game and movement still resemble Federer quite a bit, but he has stopped trying to just mimic Federer on court. Dimitrov has allowed his game to develop into what works for him. For example, just compare his service motion between now and three years ago. This has made him a much better player. He is currently No. 6 in the race and could be ready to challenge for the top spots by the end of next year.

If there is one player who has had a drastic fall this year, it’s Jerzy Janowicz. I have long been critical of Janowicz for his lack of tactics on court. He has an incredible amount of talent, which nobody can deny. But his “hit the ball as hard as you can and hope good things happen” approach is a poor formula for consistency. It got Janowicz to the Bercy final in 2012 and a Wimbledon semifinal last year, but other than that his results have been quite poor. He fell outside the top 50 this week, but even that is based off results from last summer. He currently sits at No. 60 in the race. Janowicz has too much talent to sit around in the middle of the top 100. But unless he changes something about his on-court attitude and style, that is where he’ll stay for a long time.

One final breakout player to note is Roberto Bautista-Agut. This big-hitting Spaniard began the year at world No. 73, but he quickly caught our attention with his impressive upset of Juan Martin del Potro at the Australian Open. Bautista-Agut’s huge groundstokes and clean movement are reminiscent of players like del Potro or Marin Cilic. He is now up to No. 23 in the world and No. 17 in the race. Nothing is really slowing him down, and we should expect that ranking to continue to rise as he gets more and more comfortable on the biggest stages. Bautista-Agut’s big hitting will suit him well on the American hard courts, and he could make a push for the top 10 this summer.