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The 2014 French Open: A Comprehensive Preview

May 24th 2014

The second major of 2014 is set to begin on Sunday at Roland Garros. Our contributors at Tennis View are just as excited about the fortnight as you are. Here are their selections for the men’s and women’s champions, as well as one notable sleeper to watch in each draw.

Rafael Nadal

Joanie Agler:

Men’s Champion:  Rafael Nadal

Nadal may be more vulnerable in 2014, but defeating the Spaniard on clay in a best-of-five format is whole different animal than pulling off the upset against him in a best-of-three contest.  Also, at least on paper, Nadal has an easier path to the title than co-favorite Novak Djokovic. While he may not be a lock for a ninth Roland Garros crown, he still holds the edge as the man to beat in Paris.

Women’s Champion:  Serena Williams

Williams comes into Roland Garros fresh off a title run in Rome and physically is in a better place than she was after her loss in Charleston. Furthermore, those who pose the biggest threat to dethroning her reside in the opposite half of the draw.  She must overcome some tricky early rounds, but if she can escape the first week, she is the most likely candidate to have the mental fortitude to come up with the goods when the chips are down in week two.

Men’s Dark Horse:  Roberto Bautista Agut

He may not be among the most well-known members of the Spanish Armada, but after reaching the semifinals in Madrid, Bautista Agut has proven his game is more than capable of getting the job done on clay.  He is in a soft section of the draw, and the first seed he could meet is Tomas Berdych, whom he has beaten two of the three times they have played.  An appearance in the second week is definitely within the realm of possibility.

Women’s Dark Horse:  Ana Ivanovic

Ivanovic has started playing some of her best tennis this spring.  She reached the final of Stuttgart, and while competing in Rome, she collected a win against Maria Sharapova and was the only player to push Serena Williams to a third set.  Plus, Roland Garros is the site of the Serb’s lone major title.  If she is able to emerge from a potentially tough opening round against home favorite Caroline Garcia, Ivanovic is playing well enough to post a deep run.

Novak Djokovic

Victoria Chiesa:

Men's Champion:  Novak Djokovic

Djokovic's desire to win Roland Garros has been well-documented, as have his struggles again Rafael Nadal in Paris. He's 0-5 at the event against his Spanish rival, but Djokovic's been pulling closer to Nadal in each of these meetings. He won his first set against Nadal at the tournament in the 2012 final and came up just short in a 9-7 fifth set thriller in the semifinals last year. With legitimate questions surrounding the Spaniard's form and confidence coming into the event for perhaps the first time, this might be the year that all the stars align for the Serb to finally complete his career Grand Slam.

Women's Champion: Serena Williams 

When Serena Williams withdrew from Madrid, alarm bells went off. After what happened in Australia, would another injury derail her quest for a Grand Slam title in 2014? Williams answered those questions emphatically by strolling to the title in Rome with the loss of just one set, and she again comes into Roland Garros as the favorite. Her draw is kind with sister Venus and Sabine Lisicki more likely to trouble her on grass, while her overwhelmingly positive records against projected second-week opponents Maria Sharapova and Agnieszka Radwanska make her a safe bet to reach Saturday's final.

Men's Dark Horse:  Ernests Gulbis

Ever the enigma, Gulbis is a perennial choice for ATP dark horse. The Latvian, with all the talent in the world, has rarely had the motivation to match, and his meager results at majors reflect that. Again proclaiming his dedication to the sport, Gulbis has had a decent run-up to Paris. A potential fourth-round clash with Roger Federer looms large, but Gulbis' lone win over Federer came on the clay in Rome four years ago when the latter was world No. 1.

Women's Dark Horse: Petra Cetkovska 

While she's currently ranked No. 58, far off her career high of No.25, the 29-year-old Czech has beaten Li Na, Angelique Kerber, and Sloane Stephens this year. She knows what it takes to get to the second week in Paris, having reached the fourth round in 2008, and has landed in the most wide-open quarter of the women's draw this year. Should she get past Varvara Lepchenko in the opening round, she could face Kerber on red clay again in a rematch of a Rome upset.

Yeshayahu Ginsburg:

Men’s Champion:  Rafael Nadal

It’s tempting to pick someone else because of his struggles this year. But until proven otherwise this is still Nadal’s tournament until someone else takes it from him. He got a favorable draw to boot, meeting no real danger until the quarterfinal, and David Ferrer was probably the opponent he most wanted to meet in that round anyway despite a recent loss to him in Monte Carlo.

Serena Williams

Women’s Champion:  Serena Williams

The same is true of the women’s No. 1, who has been so dominant recently. There are players who can beat her, and Serena probably got the toughest draw she possibly could have. A final against Li Na could be thoroughly compelling. But, until someone consistently proves otherwise, Serena is the pick.

Men’s Dark Horse:  Ernests Gulbis

If he was clearly healthy and had an easier draw, Kei Nishikori would belong here because of his impressive showing in Madrid. Unfortunately, drawing Djokovic in a quarterfinal was worse for him than even drawing Nadal would have been. By contrast, Gulbis has a favorable first few rounds and should reach the fourth round easily. Then, it’s a match that he could win against Roger Federer, which could be one of the most exciting of the entire tournament.

Women’s Dark Horse:  Ana Ivanovic

The Serb is finally, slowly but steadily, making her way back to where she was a few years ago. She is playing with confidence again, even if she is still having trouble closing matches. This draw is a great opportunity for Ivanovic, for she can solve Petra Kvitova, Simona Halep, or even both. If she can hold her nerves in the first few rounds, this can be (another) breakthrough tournament for her.

Mike Holder:

Men’s Champion:  Rafael Nadal

With the recent bumps in the road that Nadal has navigated through, his clay dominance appears vulnerable to Novak Djokovic. If ever the door was open to seize the Roland Garros title from the greatest clay player ever, it would appear to be this year. However, Nadal is one of the greatest competitors of all time as well, and he will not let his reign at his favorite Grad Slam end without a fight. Nadal should summon his competitive fire once more and continue his streak at the French Open, ending what has been a frustrating clay season on the highest note.

Maria Sharapova

Women’s Champion:  Maria Sharapova

When it comes to Grand Slam picks, you typically take someone other than Serena Williams at your own peril. However, Sharapova is one of the few players on the tour who has the weapons to compete toe to toe with Williams. She put together a strong spring that includes back-to-back clay championships at Stuttgart and Madrid to follow a semifinal run in Miami. Clay has become her best surface over the last few years, while it has been the least productive overall for Williams despite her recent success.

Men’s Dark Horse:  Jo-Wilfried Tsonga

In light of a season that has seen the Frenchman drop out of the top 10, this would certainly be a contrarian pick. However, Tsonga is still a dangerous competitor who will look to turn around his season at the friendly confines of his home Grand Slam. Although he has not consistently gone deep into tournaments thus far, Tsonga has recently logged several victories against top-20 caliber competitors on clay and has challenged some of the very best in the world. The Le Mans native is certainly capable of advancing into the second week in Paris.

WTA Dark Horse:  Ana Ivanovic

Ivanovic is in the midst of playing some of the best tennis of her career, where she has become a regular advancing deep in tournaments. In her last three tournaments, all on clay, she has made  quarterfinal, semifinal, and final runs, defeating players such as Maria Sharapova and Jelena Jankovic along the way. The former champion and world No. 1, who has earned two titles in 2014, has the experience and the confidence to make a deep run at Roland Garros this season.

David Kane:

Men’s Champion:  Rafael Nadal

To bet against Nadal is the French Open is like betting against the sun rising in the east. He's suffered some surprising losses, for any loss on his best surface is surprising, and hasn't looked invincible. But Roland Garros is a different matter entirely, and it will take a truly special effort to dethrone the King of Clay in a best-of-five match. 

Women’s Champion:  Serena Williams

To bet against the No. 1 anywhere is to bet on an upstart taking her out when she least expects it. Sabine Lisicki was able to do it at Wimbledon last year. While they're drawn to play in the round of 16, the German is far from comfortable on clay, and in the last two years the American has molded herself into a force of nature on all surfaces. Barring a calamitous plot twist, it's hard to imagine much going wrong for Williams. 

Gilles Simon

Men’s Dark Horse:  Gilles Simon

The Frenchman is a former top-10 player unafraid of taking it to the game's best. He took a set from Nadal in Rome and was very close to pulling off a major upset over Federer at the French Open one year ago. Playing through a lackluster season, Simon is coming off a semifinal run in Nice. He has no title this year, but his recent strong run of momentum might translate well on the terre battue.

Women’s Dark Horse:  Caroline Garcia

Simon's compatriot Garcia has had a much louder 2014, finally making good on the hype she earned after battling Maria Sharapova in front of her home crowd in 2011. Winning her first title in Bogota, Garcia had two more top-10 wins en route to a quarterfinal in Rome, where she stretched Agnieszka Radwanska to three sets. Garcia has always had the game but struggled with nerves. Being the underdog may serve her well as she opens against No. 11 seed Ana Ivanovic.

Steen Kirby:

Men's Champion: Novak Djokovic

With Nadal not playing like himself all season, including on clay, opportunity is ripe for Novak to take his first French Open title and complete the career Grand Slam. Judging by overall form this season, Djokovic has been one of the top two players without a doubt, joining not Nadal but Stanislas Wawrinka. However, he may face three tough matches in a row. The red-hot Kei Nishikori or the almost as red-hot Milos Raonic looms in the quarterfinals, and Roger Federer awaits in the semifinals before the projected final against Nadal or Wawrinka.

Women's Champion: Serena Williams

Things seem to be boom or bust for her at the French Open, where she won last year’s title after a first-round loss in 2012. Outside Maria Sharapova, few contenders of any age can rival this legend’s fortitude and sheer talent.

Men's Dark Horse: Roberto Bautista Agut

He's had a career year and has a great chance to reach the second week of a second straight major. Bautista Agut impressed on clay by reaching his first Masters 1000 semifinal in Madrid, and he has defeated potential third-round opponent Tomas Berdych earlier this year. We could even see him in the quarterfinals, since his projected fourth-round matchup does not look imposing. The Spaniard seems poised for a real breakthrough.

Ana Ivanovic

Women's Dark Horse: Ana Ivanovic

She's proven she can win here as a former champion in 2008. Things are looking up for Ivanovic recently as she took a set off Serena after reaching the semifinals in Rome, where she also defeated Sharapova. A Stuttgart final appearance, also on clay, saw her record several other quality performances.

Nick Nemeroff:

Men’s Champion:  Novak Djokovic

Djokovic has defeated Nadal at every Grand Slam except the French Open, where he holds an 0-5 record against the King of Clay. With Nadal appearing as vulnerable as he ever has entering the 2014 French Open, this event presents a great chance for the Serb to flip the script and capture his first French Open title. Djokovic’s ability to counter Nadal’s dangerous patterns and explosive shots makes him the Spaniard’s most likely conqueror.

Women’s Champion:  Serena Williams

As is usually the case, Serena’s most dangerous opponent will be herself. If the American plays at the level we all know she can produce, taking her down will be an uphill battle. Serena’s enormous base of power can overwhelm any opponent and hit through even the slowest of surfaces. Anything can happen, but I’d be surprised if Serena doesn’t win the French Open for the second straight year.

Men’s Dark Horse:  Fernando Verdasco

In the 2009 Australian Open, Fernando Verdasco proved that he had the potential to be great. Unfortunately, he hasn’t always played up to this potential and has failed to reach the semifinal of a major since his run Down Under. Verdasco has been afforded a relatively comfortable draw and might play the slumping, clay-averse Andy Murray with a quarterfinal berth on the line. That’s about the most favorable matchup with a top-eight seed that he could expect.

Women’s Dark Horse:  Eugenie Bouchard

The rising Canadian, like Verdasco, has been provided an extremely advantageous draw. The French Open is a tournament where sheer consistency will fail to get the job done over the long term. Consistency must be fused with some sort of attack, and while Bouchard isn’t the most potent defender, she certainly can pack a punch from the ground. With Kerber as her projected fourth-round opponent and Radwanska as her projected quarterfinal opponent, don’t be surprised if the 20-year-old finds her way to yet another major semifinal.

Van Sias:

Men's Champion: Rafael Nadal

Paris in the springtime is always the right time for the Spaniard. He hasn't been playing his usual dominant brand of clay-court tennis, but he should have enough of a mental edge to hold off Novak Djokovic should they meet in the finals.

Women's Champion: Maria Sharapova

Somewhat surprisingly, the seventh seed now plays on the clay like it's her best surface. She is drawn to face defending champion Serena Williams in the quarterfinals, in what would be a rematch of last year's finals. Eventually, Sharapova's epic losing streak to Williams has to come to an end. Why not now? A quarterfinal win could propel her to the title.

Andy Murray

Men's Dark Horse:  Andy Murray

There are two ways that Murray can look at his 2014 campaign so far: Either everything he's done so far this year is a bonus considering he's coming off back surgery, or he’s suffering from disappointing struggles. If his recent match against Nadal in Rome is any indication, it looks like he's choosing the former response and is rounding into form. Murray has a realistic shot at making the semifinals, being in the same part of the draw as Stanislas Wawrinka, Fabio Fognini, and Richard Gasquet: players who haven't always stepped up to the plate.

Women's Dark Horse: Ana Ivanovic

The former world No. 1 has been playing top-five tennis throughout 2014. She's still sitting outside the top 10, but expect that to change quickly, perhaps even at the site of her lone Grand Slam singles title. Ivanovic is in a very favorable part of the women's draw and with experience and renewed confidence could find herself in the semifinals.

Chris Skelton:

Men’s Champion:  Novak Djokovic

Stanislas Wawrinka has produced as strong a season as anyone, but a player rarely wins his second major immediately after his first. With the exception of Wawrinka’s titles, every meaningful ATP tournament since last summer has fallen into the clutches of Rafael Nadal or Novak Djokovic. Having defeated Nadal in two Masters 1000 finals this year, including a hard-fought clay battle in Rome, Djokovic holds the momentum in their highly psychological rivalry. He came within five points of cracking the Rafa code last year, and the 2014 version of Nadal has been a pale shadow of the 2013 version, even (especially?) on clay.

Women’s Champion:  Serena Williams

Frankly, looking at the draw was unnecessary in making this pick. The world No. 1 hasn’t lost on red clay since 2012 and has throttled all of the other top-eight seeds on every surface during that time. If Serena loses in Paris, it will be either because her body betrays her or because she overlooks a plucky underdog in the early rounds. Despite her Melbourne disappointment, neither of those scenarios is a smart bet at a major.

Men’s Dark Horse:  Ernests Gulbis

Clay might not be the best surface for this impulsive shot-maker, but Gulbis often has ridden waves of momentum well and just reached the final in Nice. No dirt devils or tenacious competitors loom in his vicinity, while projected second-week opponent Roger Federer enters Paris without much clay practice or perhaps motivation. This is also a vote of no-confidence in other dark horses as much as a vote of confidence in Gulbis. Grigor Dimitrov will run into Nadal soon after absorbing a thrashing from Rafa in Rome, and Kei Nishikori remains questionable after injury sidelined him in Madrid.

Alize Cornet

Women’s Dark Horse:  Alize Cornet

The volatile Frenchwoman has produced some head-turning results this year, including victories over Serena Williams and Agnieszka Radwanska. Clay is Cornet’s favorite surface, and she has landed in the softest section of the draw. She has defeated projected third-round opponent Carla Suarez Navarro twice this year, and a rematch of her hard-court win over Radwanska would seem to tilt even more in her favor. If Cornet can keep her emotions at least somewhat in check, a stunning quarterfinal or even semifinal run might lie within her grasp.

Matt Tewhatu:

Men’s Champion:  Rafael Nadal

It’s tough to get past Nadal in any ATP event, let alone his beloved Roland Garros, where he’s vying for an unfathomable ninth French Open title. After a slow start to the clay season, he notched a title victory in Madrid and a final appearance in Rome. It looks like Nadal might be hitting top form coming to Paris.

Women’s Champion:  Serena Williams

Coming off a title win in Rome where she lost just one set during the whole tournament, Williams will be at peak confidence. It seems as if the only person or factor that will defeat Williams in this type of form is herself, for her fitness is still somewhat questionable after taking a break through April. Somewhat intriguing is the prospect of a quarterfinal match-up with Maria Sharapova, repeating the 2013 French Open final.

Grigor Dimitrov

Men’s Dark Horse:  Grigor Dimitrov

In the past 12 months, the Bulgarian has come a long way and is currently experiencing one of his best years on tour with the help of Australian coach Roger Rasheed. Despite being demolished by Nadal in straight sets in Rome, Dimitrov has shown his capabilities on the clay with a title victory in Bucharest as well as convincing wins over the likes of Tomas Berdych. After losing to David Ferrer in straight sets in Monte Carlo, he’ll face a potential rematch with Ferrer in the fourth round. Maybe Dimitrov can apply what he learned from the earlier loss.

Women’s Dark Horse:  Ana Ivanovic

Coming off a tight three-set loss to Williams in a Rome semifinal, Ivanovic holds fond memories of Court Philippe Chatrier. She won her only Grand Slam title there in 2008. While she’ll face a potentially problematic third-round meeting with Czech Lucie Safarova, she’s been drawn in a favorable part of the draw. Ivanovic has a winning record against projected fourth-round opponent Petra Kvitova, so a second quarterfinal appearance in two 2014 majors is a real possibility.